NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 21 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

0.0 Roosters vs Broncos

-16.5 Bulldogs vs Dragons

-2.5 Warriors vs Panthers

+5.5 Eels vs Tigers

-5.5 Cowboys vs Storm

+9.5 Rabbits vs Raiders

-22.5 Eagles vs Knights

+5.5 Titans vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 21 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet / $1.85 Unibet

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill

Bet 3 units Eagles -18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

 

Round 22

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Roosters, Bulldogs, Panthers, Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Roosters vs Broncos

0.0 Roosters

Stats

Two sides desperately out of form kick off Round 21 when the Roosters host the Broncos from Allianz Stadium. Wins have been few and far between for both sides recently, with the Roosters losing 8 of their last 9, while Brisbane has lost 6 of their last 8. A finals birth has long been off the table for the Roosters but Brisbane is still a chance of a Top 4 finish, albeit a slim one. Brisbane holds a 25-16 all time advantage over the Roosters, while wins have been shared equally since 2009, with both sides recording 5 wins each. The Roosters have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at Allianz Stadium and in 3 of those they have kept Brisbane scoreless in the 1st half. The Roosters have lost 6 straight and must have 1 of the toughest runs home in the comp, as this will be their 4th game in 5 that they play a Top 6 opponent, while 4 of their last 5 are against sides currently in the 8. They have lost 9 from 9 previously against sides in the Top 8 and have lost 8 of 10 at Allianz Stadium this season. The Roosters have been anchored in 15th spot since Round 9, while their attack, defence and differential all rank 14th. They are 6-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their 9 matches against the Top 8. They have also failed to cover in the last 4 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Over, 7-2 Over at Allianz Stadium and 6-1 Over as a home underdog since 2014, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have also finished Over. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 5 matches, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 7 of their 9 games at Allianz Stadium this season. Despite losing 6 of their last 8, the Broncos still remain in 6th spot. After the opening 9 Rounds, the Broncos boasted the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding an average of 12 points a game, but have averaged almost 28 points a game since Round 11. They are currently ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence while their 80 point differential ranks 5th. Brisbane is 8-10 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road and they have covered in only 2 of their last 7 as a road favourite. They are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 9-9 result, while 5 of their last 6 have finished Overs. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein also favour the Overs, with an 8-3 result, including the last 6 straight.

Preview

I just have to stay against the Broncos, and while the Roosters have been losing they do come through some very strong form. The Broncos looked terrible last week, shot for confidence, they have some very key outs here with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire in the middle plus Reed, Kahu, Eden and Nikorima, that’s a decent hole punched in your list and quality. As mentioned last week, their next problem is that their depth and kids off their bench have not stepped up, they really are in all sorts at present.

The Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8 and in 3 of their last 4 have conceded 30 or more points in defence, unheard of for a Bennett coached side. In all honesty they have not played well since Rd 11 their last H2H contest against the Cowboys. Hunt has been shot on confidence and form since Rd 1; Milford has followed through the last 8 or so weeks; they have then had some key injuries in particular to their left edge which coupled with their depth and youth not stepping up seems to then have exaggerated their slide in form. They could also be under the pump with an intensive fitness program as they headed toward finals footy, but if they are not real careful and arrest this slide and form quickly that might also then be a risk.

Roosters also losing and are with out key forward Waerea-Hargreaves but there has been significant improvement across their recent form, and they certainly should have won two of their last 4 notably against the Sharks. If we look a little closer to their form 3 of their last 4 games have been against top 4 opponents, their last two games have been against the Storm and Sharks who now sit top of the table, and for the most part they have been very competitive in each of these games. It’s a strong form line which should position them well here, the worry is them running out the full 80 minutes and winning, but they do look close to a breakthrough win. They also have some strengths to play at the Broncos here, they can play strong and physical through the middle (McGuire and Thaiday missing), can maintain this with a strong forward bench, Pearce has been in good form, I like the talent and look of the young kid at #6 Connor Watson and hopefully we see Latrell Mitchell moved back to fullback.

Like the Roosters chances here, back at home, although losing they come through the strongest recent form reference in the competition at present into an opponent with notable key outs, questionable form and confidence.

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet


Bulldogs vs Dragons

-16.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs have a dominate record over the Dragons, winning 8 of the last 9 clashes, including 6 of the previous 7 meetings at ANZ Stadium. Canterbury also has a very good recent record at ANZ Stadium, having won 12 of their last 16 matches played at the ground, while the Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at the venue. The Bulldogs are coming off their biggest loss in 3 years but they have a solid record in the week following a heavy defeat, having won 6 of their last 7 off a 13+ loss and they have covered the line in all of those. The Dogs have won their last 6 matches against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder. They are 7-11 ATS with a 4-4 record at ANZ Stadium when laying a start. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Dragons at ANZ Stadium have finished Under, with an average of 36. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Dragons who have conceded 1st points in 11 of their last 17 at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have now lost 3 straight and all 3 losses have been by a margin of 13+, while they have averaged just 10 points a game in attack. Their next 3 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have won only 1 from 4 previously against the Top 8 as an away side, where they have averaged less than 8 points a game. They have now dropped to 11th on the ladder with an 8-10 record, while their differential of -158 is the 2nd worst in the NRL. Their defence ranks 11th, while only the Knights have scored fewer points than the Dragons in attack. They are 8-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 when getting a start and have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Under, while they are 9-2 Under against the Top 8 at an average of 33. The Dragons have lost 9 of their last 10 matches of Friday Night Football and have conceded the 1st try of the match in 9 of those. The side that has scored the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 14 of the last 16 clashes, while the half time leader has won 15 of the previous 16 meetings.

Preview

The Bulldogs were off last week and smashed by a good Cowboys side, their prior form was ok but right now they are just not up to competing with the pointy end of the table. This is different and they drop quite a few levels of opponent into the Dragons. I’ve stated many times that they have problems in their halves in their inability to own the play making roles, and this is especially highlighted when against the quality defensive sides. They had won their previous 4 games and in the process also rattled up plenty of points, back at home and off a bit of a shake up they should be keen to atone here.

Less said about the Dragons the better, I have done this to death through recent weeks. In short the Coach has no idea and is way way out of his depth, his approach to attack structure, set up, patterns and execution is archaic. Yes their list needs some tinkering with but you could see some significant improvement very quickly with a different approach with the same personal let alone then making some change. gee, in the short term I’d just position Widdop on the right and set up as much play as possible to run down their right edge and feed Taane Milne some space and ball, he looks a talent, big boy, has footwork and hands that can play inside and out, for the Dragons sake I hope he is locked up for the next few years.

When opponents have played the Dragons back through the middle (Eagles at Brookvale a few weeks back, then the Titans) they are very venerable. The Bulldogs have this in spades here, plus they like to off load and play second phase options.

Bulldogs have been involved in totals of 44 or more at 4 of their last 5 outings, and while losing teh Dragons have done something similar and have also been conceding big scores. This game looks to have points in it, we just want the Dragons to either contribute with 3 tries, or roll over completely, and while the Dragons a notable unders team through this and recent seasons, but they have been leaking points more recently and look under pressure to do something similar here again. My model has this contest at 73% overs, I think 40 points looks very achievable.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport


Warriors vs Panthers

-2.5 Warriors

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off from Auckland when the Warriors play host to the Panthers. The Warriors return home after their back to back away legs, both of which were decided by Golden Point with the Warriors on the wrong end of the result in both matches which has seen them drop out of the 8 to 9th position. They are ranked 8th in attack and 12th in defence, while their -21 differential ranks 11th . The Warriors have now lost 3 of their last 4 and have struggled for wins against the Top 8, with a 3-7 result, while they have won only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Panthers. They are 8-10 ATS, with a 3-5 cover record at home and have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-7 Over, while 8 of the last 9 clashes with the Panthers in New Zealand have also finished Over at an average of 51. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Panthers, including the last 5 match ups in New Zealand. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 home games and ranks 2nd (9) behind Solomona Kata who is the Warriors leading try scorer with 10. After playing 15 of their 18 matches in NSW, the Panthers will now play distant away games in back to back weeks as well as their 2nd trip to New Zealand this season. They will have gained plenty of confidence after disposing of the Broncos last week as they aim for 3 straight wins for the 1st time this season, but they haven’t won back to back away games since 2014. Their win last week moved them back into the Top 8, at the expense of the Warriors and the Panthers have won 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent. The Panthers rank 9th in both attack and defence, with a -13 differential that also ranks 9th . They are split evenly ATS, producing a 9-9 result, while they have covered in 6 of 9 on the road and in 6 of 9 when getting a start. Penrith are also split evenly in TMP’s but are 11-5 Under as a road dog since 2015. No side has been involved in more matches decided by a margin of 1-12 than the Panthers and this has also been the result in the last 5 clashes against the Warriors that have been played in New Zealand. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 9, but he hasn’t scored in his last 3 matches against the Warriors.

Preview

Tricky game and don’t like much about it. Warriors come off two losses, both distant road games and now return home which should be to their advantage, but they have struggled through recent seasons after the Origin period when up against tougher opponents who are at full strength, and or top of the table opponents. Panthers come off good away win vs Broncos then into another distant away game, certainly have to continue to question how strong a form line beating the Broncos at present is worth, and they are yet to string consistency or wins together.

Don’t like the game, slight lean to Panthers, but nothing would surprise.


Eels vs Tigers

+5.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium in the Super Saturday Sandwich. The Eels snuck home 8-0 when they last met in Round 4 in what was the lowest scoring match of the season thus far. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests with 4 of the last 5 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Eels have now lost 3 of their last 4 but are yet to be beaten at ANZ Stadium this season, winning 4 from 4. They conceded 34 points last week for the 2nd time in month and have conceded an average of 27 points a game over that period. Parramatta is 11-7 ATS and has covered in all 4 of their matches at ANZ Stadium this season. They are 11-7 Under in TMP’s, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1 st try of the match in the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their last 7. Bevan French crossed again last week to make it 10 tries from 7 appearances and he now joins Radradra as the Eels leading try scorer. The Tigers will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 12 and if successful they will break a 7 game win loss sequence. A win will also get them to 22 competition points and depending on other results they could be 1 of 5 teams fighting for a spot in the 8 all on 22 points. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, as well as winning 6 of the previous 9 clashes with the Eels. The Tigers rank 10th in attack, but have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points per game. They are 10-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, as well as covering in 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 11-7 in favour of the Overs, including 5 of their last 6 and they share the highest TMP average in the NRL at 46. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 15 tries from 18 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 11 from his last 12.

Preview

Another questionable game I’m happy to stay away from. The Eels are there to be beat (again), they have now lost 3 of their last 4 and conceded a decent margin last week vs Titans, not host this at Homebush. They have a makeshift line up riddled with key outs, but to their credit key putting in. Tigers won as expected last week, but they could have and should have won by 30 into and through that 2nd half which turned into a very ugly low contest. And that’s the problem with them, inconsistency and an inability to foot their foot to the floor on opponents / games that they should. They have gone W L W L W sequence through their last 7 games, and come off a win, to stay in contention for the finals they again need to win here, and they have a good recent record vs bottom 8 sides. Tigers should win, and seriously should win by 10, but they are hard to trust.


Cowboys vs Storm

-5.5 Cowboys

Stats

Two of the Premiership heavy weights clash in Townsville in what is clearly one of the matches of the Round, although some of the gloss has been taken off with news that Thurston will be missing for the next couple of weeks. There hasn’t been a lot between these sides in recent years, with both sides recording 5 wins from the last 10 encounters and 3 of the last 4 having been decided by single figures. The Cowboys remain unbeaten at home this year after last week’s demolition job on the Bulldogs, to stretch their winning run to 11 consecutive home wins but for just the 2nd time in more than 2 years they start this match as a home underdog. For the 7th week in a row the Cowboys hold down 3rd spot on the ladder, while they rank 2nd in both attack and defence, averaging 26 PPG in attack and conceding 14 PPG in defence. North Queensland is 10-8 ATS, with a 6-3 cover record at home, while they are 15-7 since 2014 when getting a start. They are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 night fixtures finishing Under at an average of 35, while 5 of the previous 7 clashes with Melbourne have totaled 36 or less. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 9 of their home games this season and only once in those 9 matches have they trailed at half time. After bagging 3 tries last week, Antonio Winterstein is now the Cowboys leading try scorer with 10 and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in 3 of their last 6 games. Like the Cowboys, Melbourne have been entrenched in the Top 4 for most of the season and since Round 8, they haven’t sat lower than 3rd. Their defence and differential both rank 1st, while they have the 4th best attack. They have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 away from AAMI Park, including a 1 point win over the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium in Round 10. Only once since Round 8 have they trailed at half time and they have won 13 of 14 this season when leading at the break, while the half time leader has won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the Cowboys and the Storm. Melbourne is 10-8 ATS, with a 5-4 cover record on the road, while they have an 8-9 cover record since 2014 as a road favourite. They are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result, with an 8-2 Under record on the road, while they are 5-2 Under against their Top 8 counterparts. Suliasa Vunivalu failed to score a try last week but he is yet to go back to back matches without scoring and he continues to be the NRL’s leading try scorer with 17.

Preview

Clearly the game of the round and for mine the likely Grand Final preview.

Yes Thurston is a massive out (should he not play, which is what I expect) but the Cowboys are huge at home (won last 11 here) and have grown significantly as a team this season off confidence and belief from winning the title. Many forget that last week after Thurston left the field the Cowboys still put a further 20 points on the opponent, led by the very capable Morgan.

The Storm have also been outstanding now for many months, and I have no knock at all for them. They have been sitting in the top 3 since Rd 8, have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 on the road, a super record season to date and still only concede 11 pts a week in defence. Bellamy has made some noticeable tweaks to their attack through the last 6 or so weeks given the attacking strike and strength that he now has on his two edges with Koroibete and Vunivalu, now looking to set up short or wide shifts to an edge or a high kick options. They to have a few key forwards either out (McLean, Asofa-Solomona) or in doubt (Glasby).

My numbers have it -5.5 to Cowboys with significant edge them at home, that if correct in game could be an 8 point advantage, I want to be with them. With no Thurston they can be beat, and the Storm are certainly the real deal, great clash but tip and small interest with home side.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet


Rabbits vs Raiders

+9.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two sides with opposing form lines kick off Sunday afternoon football when the Rabbitohs host the Raiders at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are coming of 7 straight losses and are now out of Finals contention, while the Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 and will be looking to maintain their spot in the Top 4. The Raiders hold a 29- 21 all time advantage over the Bunnies, while wins have been shared equally at ANZ Stadium. There have been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet with a TMP average of 52 from the previous 10 clashes, with only 1 of them totaling less than 48. It could a long final 6 weeks for Souths who now have little to play for and have conceded 20 points or more in every match since Round 7 at an average of nearly 30. They have made 2 changes from last week and have now used 31 players, with only the Knights and Warriors using more. They have lost 7 from 7 against the current Top 8 and have failed to score a 1st half point in 4 of those. They are 6-12 ATS to be the equal worst cover team in the competition and have failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 matches at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 11-7 Over in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 40 or more. They have conceded the 1st points of the match in 10 of their last 13 and have trailed at half time in 12 of those. The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent and have won 7 of their last 8 when starting as a favourite. Only once this season have they been out of the Top 8 and they are now in the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 5. They have a soft run home, with 4 of their remaining 6 games against sides currently ranked 10th to 14th, while they face the Sharks and Storm in back to back weeks in Rounds 22 and 23 so a Top 4 finish is a distinct possibility. Canberra has the 7th ranked defence while both their differential and their attack rank 4th . They are 11-7 ATS but have a 6-9 cover record since 2014 when laying a small start. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result and are a big Overs side in day games, going 10-2 Over in 2016, with a 29-10 record in day games since 2014. After bagging a hat trick last week, Jarrod Croker has now moved to outright 1st as Canberra’s leading try scorer with 14.

Preview

This looks a game style much more to the Raiders liking and their strengths (as opposed to last week) and so I want to bet with them here.

I shied away from betting the Raiders last week as the  ad lib style of game that it looked like becoming concerned me. The Warriors can play, and then lead their opponents into a near touch footy style of play, which can pull sides off their focus, strengths, and lead to multiple errors and catch up styled play, and that’s exactly what the Raiders got sucked into last week. This is much more them, a meat and vegies basics styled game pattern of roll through the middle, work hard, earn the field position and then the points sort of game and the stuff they are best suited to.

Clearly the Rabbits are a mess, lost 7 straight now, lucky they were not put away with an embarrassing margin last Monday night when down 18-0, and lose another key forward which they can ill afford to with such a thin player list now. I just can’t see how they hold the Raiders big men through the middle, keep conceding field position and then points.

As we know the Raiders can be tricky to catch, and they can play in patches, but gee this looks ready made for them if they can keep their head and stick tight to their strengths. Given all of this I think we are much smarter to look to play them under the key number of 8 as opposed to teh current market position of 10, so take the tri bet option Raiders to win by more than 6.5 points.

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill


Eagles vs Knights

-22.5 Eagles

Stats

For the 1st time in a month, the Sea Eagles return to Brookvale Oval where they will face a Newcastle side destined for the Wooden Spoon. The Sea Eagles have won 9 of the last 11 games played against the Knights, including the last 5 straight, while Newcastle has not won a game at Brookvale Oval for 10 years. Manly are looking to make a late charge as the race for a spot in the Finals intensifies. They have now won 3 in a row and another win this week could see them move from 12th to 9th if other results go their way. After conceding nearly 30 points a game during their 7 game losing run, the Sea Eagles have conceded an average of 10.7 since the start of their winning run. They are ranked 13th in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 11th. Manly is 8-10 ATS and have covered their last 4 straight. They have an 11-8 cover record at Brookvale Oval since 2014 when giving a start, but have covered in only 2 of 5 over the same period when chasing a double digit advantage. The Sea Eagles are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with their last 3 at Brookvale all finishing that way. Jorge Taufua has been the Sea Eagles 1st try scorer in his last 3 matches against the Knights and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 9. It’s been the season from hell for the Knights who are looking at equaling a club record of 13 consecutive losses should they lose this match. The Knights have had to call on 34 player’s season to date, which is the most of any club. They are yet to register a win on the road, having lost 10 from 10 and 5 of those road losses have been by 30 points or more. Newcastle are 7-11 ATS, with a 3-7 cover record away from home, while they have covered in only 2 of their last 8 when getting a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 10-8 in favour of the Overs, with a 6-4 Over record on the road at an average of 47.

Preview

20 pts is a decent line, but the Eagles are warming up, covered tehir last 4 straight, back at Brookvale, outstanding record over Knights (and long term at this ground) and for and against now becomes very important to them and in this game, if they are hungry and can stay focused I expect they will look to work hard for points. Knights look in trouble again, 4 or 5 key outs with whispers of possible more through coming days, they got beat by margin of 32 last week, into another difficult away game and some of their outs are critical. Eagles keep their head then they win by plenty.

More to follow.


Titans vs Sharks

+5.5 Titans

Stats

Round 21 comes to a conclusion in a Top 8 clash when the 7 th placed Titans host the ladder leaders Cronulla. There has been very little between these sides since the Titans entered the comp in 2007, with the Sharks currently holding a 2 game advantage head to head, while wins have been shared equally from the 4 games played at CBus Stadium. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 6 of the previous 7 clashes decided by 6 points or less and one would hope that this will again be the case. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 8, but they have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have averaged 28 points a game during that time. They are ranked 7 th in attack, while their differential and defence both rank 8th . They are the Number 1 side ATS and have now covered in 13 of their 18 matches, including their last 7 night matches, while they have also covered in 9 of their last 10 as an underdog and 8 of their last 10 games of MNF. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while they are 7-3 Under in MNF since 2014. Monday night matches have also favoured the Unders in 2016 with a 13-6 result. Nene Macdonald crossed again last week to make it 5 consecutive matches where he has scored and he leads the way for the Titans with 9 tries for the season. The Sharks are looking for 16 straight wins to move to equal 3 rd on the all-time list for consecutive games won. Their last defeat was a Monday night road game back in Round 3 but they have won 4 straight Monday fixtures since then. In 7 of their last 8 games of MNF, the winning margin has been by 12 points or less, while a margin of 1-12 has been the result in 13 of the 19 games of MNF in 2016. Cronulla sits on top of the ladder for the 6th week in a row, they have the 3rd best differential, off the back of the 3rd best defence and the best attack in the competition. They are 12-6 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 8 away games, including the last 7 straight, while they have covered their last 4 when laying a start on the road. The Sharks are 10-8 Under in TMP’s and are 8-4 Under in MNF since 2014. Valentine Holmes picked up a double last week and is now 2nd on the ladder for most tries with 15 and is now 2 clear of Sosaia Feki as the Sharks leading try scorer.

Preview

Not a game I want to get involved with as there are a number of angles either way. Titans as we know have been very good underdogs and have the best season to date line cover record of any team, should be advantaged at home but a) have significant doubts over Peats and Taylor playing (major outs) and b) a poor record vs top 8 sides (and now meet a top 2 side). The Sharks are shooting for 16 straight wins, and have covered the line at their last 7 away games, a formidable record and one I don’t want to take on here with only a two try (or less) line.

The Titans are plucky, and aim up, but the Sharks have been at a different level across the last 3 months. They are winning against good opponents, they have grown in confidence and belief, and now also have gears in being able to step things up as and when required – as we have seen through recent weeks when facing near defeat.

I think the market handicap is right for this and a game best left alone. The Sharks should win, final team selections 60 mins prior to kick off will be crucial, I can’t split an advantage either way.


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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