NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 18 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-1.5 Eels vs Roosters

-13.5 Bulldogs vs Tigers

-4.5 Panthers vs Sharks

-12.5 Raiders vs Cowboys


NRL Round 18 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Bulldogs, Panthers, Raiders, QLD


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Eels vs Roosters

-1.5 Eels

Stats

Round 18 kicks off with 2 last start losers when the Parramatta Eels play host to the Sydney Roosters from Pirtek Stadium. The Roosters have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Eels, including 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Pirtek Stadium, but are coming into this match off the back of 3 straight losses. They have lost 6 from 7 on the road this season and have lost all of their previous 7 matches against sides currently in the Top 8. They are 6-9 ATS, with a 2-5 covering record on the road, while they are 1-4 on the road since 2014 when getting a start of 2.5 or less. The Roosters continue to be an Overs side and are now 10-5 in favour of the Over, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Eels have totaled 42 or more, with an average of 50. It’s the 1st game at Pirtek Stadium in 7 weeks for the Eels who have lost 4 from 6 this season at their true home venue, as well as losing 11 of their last 14 long term. Parramatta has also lost 6 of their last 7 when starting as a home favourite. They have however, won 5 from 7 this season against sides currently ranked in the bottom half of the ladder. The Eels are 9-6 ATS but have a poor 2-6 covering record when giving up a start at home. They are 10-5 Under in TMP’s with a 9-5 Under record as a home favourite since 2014. The Eels have conceded the 1 st try of the match in 7 of their last 9 at Pirtek Stadium and in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have scored more than twice that of the Eels.

Preview

Tricky game, added to with some ins and outs. New purchase Robson will help direct things for Eels, and allows Norman to get on with his job and Takairangi to play where best suited on the right edge; they also get Mannah back in the forwards. Cordner a key in for Roosters on their left edge while they lose Ferguson and Gurrea to Origin..

Eels have a poor recent record vs Roosters over recent years losing 7 of their last 9 H2H, but that is also in the context of each of these two sides having been at opposite ends of teh table through the last 3 yrs, where as that has not been the case this season with the Eels on 9 wins compared to the Roosters 3. One of the things that stood our with Arthur in the last few months of last season when the Eels were out of contention was his ability to get his guys up and focused on playing well (and winning) when it still didn’t matter for points / table. Now that the expectation of having to win just about every game to make the finals has evaporated for this season he again has them doing the same. In their last 3 outings they’ve beaten the Titans, the Rabbits and then led, stretched and should near have won last week vs Sharks at Shark Park, a fair form line.

Roosters clearly are also a show, possibly some of their best form last week but once again they let it slip, and losing has become a norm. They can win, its that sort of match up, but they are hard to trust, especially on the road (losing 6 of last 7).

With the Eels here but not a game I would touch.


Bulldogs vs Tigers

-13.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium for the 2nd time this season in the only Saturday match of the Round. The Dogs have opened as heavy favourites and are at their shortest price since Round 10, which was also against the Tigers. The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Tigers, including a 32 point thumping when they last met. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have had contrasting fortunes leading into a break, with the Bulldogs winning their last 5 matches heading into a Bye, while the Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 prior to the week off. The Dogs have now moved into the Top 4 for the 1 st time since Round 4 after recording 3 consecutive wins and a win this week will ensure they remain there for at least another couple of weeks with a guaranteed 2 points coming with the Bye. They are undefeated against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8 and they have also won 13 of their last 16 matches played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 13 matches have they trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Tigers. They are 7-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 7 at home this season. They are 9-7 Over in TMP’s, with their last 6 all going Over, at an average of 48. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of their last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium and in 10 of the last 14 clashes with the Tigers. Curtis Rona has scored 21 tries from 23 matches at ANZ Stadium and he has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer on 4 occasions this season. Three key outs make this a difficult assignment for the Tigers, with Farah, Woods and most importantly Tedesco all missing through Origin duties. They also have an average record at ANZ Stadium and while they have won 3 of their last 4 at the ground, their long term record reads as 10 wins and 17 losses since 2011. The Tigers are an even 8-8 ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 11 matches when getting a double digit start. They are 10- 6 Over in TMP’s, with their last 4 totaling 44 points or more, while the previous 8 clashes with the Dogs have all topped 40 points. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Preview

Tigers have a very poor record when with out Farah and Woods, now add to that possibly their best player and certainly their attacking genius in Tedesco and this certainly looks a challenge. It then also looks hard as to how their line up then holds things together, and they do have a habit of crumbling quickly on occasions.

Bulldogs also lose two to Origin, but they have some quality forward depth. I actually liked a lot more of what I saw about the Bulldogs last week, up against it early against a side playing well they showed some signs of then working hard, doing some tough stuff, getting some of the little things right to build pressure and come home hard to win. I’d suggest that’s the best effort I have seen of them for some months. They also have a quality recent and longer term record at Homebush, winning 3 of 5 here this season.

Bulldogs should be placed to advantage here against an under strength opponent.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet


Panthers vs Sharks

-4.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers will get no better opportunity to knock off the ladder leaders when a depleted Cronulla Sharks side, who are missing 5 players for Origin 3, head out West for a Sunday afternoon showdown. Cronulla set a new club record last week, recording 12 consecutive wins but 13 could prove to be an unlucky number. The Sharks have won 6 of the previous 8 clashes with the Panthers but they are rank outsiders for this clash and have opened at their longest price since Round 1. The Sharks only 2 losses this season have come on the road but they were all the way back in Rounds 1 & 3. Cronulla had been blessed until this point, requiring just 19 players throughout the season, which is the fewest of any club and 4 of their 5 Origin representatives hadn’t missed a game, with Gallen the only player to have spent time on the sidelines. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 6th time in 7 weeks, they are ranked 4th in both attack defence, giving them the 3rd best differential in the competition. They are 9-6 ATS, with a 5-1 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 11 of their last 13 day games and 8 of their last 10 matches when getting a start. The Sharks are 8-7 Under in TMP’s, with a 4-2 Over record away from home, while they are 11-5 Over in day games since 2015. Some indifferent form has seen the Panthers drift in and out of the Top 8 for the last 6 weeks but their next month could well decide whether they are Finals bound, as their next 4 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8. They have won only 4 of 7 at home this season and only 2 of 5 at Pepper Stadium. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 as a home favourite though and come into this match at their 3rd shortest price of the season. They rank 11th in attack and 7th in defence which has them in 9th spot on both the ladder and the differential standings. Penrith are 8-7 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3 matches at Pepper Stadium. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 at home all topping 40. Only once in their last 6 matches have the Panthers led at half time and they have also trailed at the break in the previous 8 meetings with the Sharks. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in the last 4 clashes and no side has had more 1-12 results than the Panthers (14) and the Sharks (12).

Preview

The Sharks have been on a sensational run of 12 straight wins season to date but this looks a task with the Origin impact of losing 5 key players (and leaders) in Fifita, Bird, Maloney, Gallen and Graham. This punches major holes through their middle, left edge ball play, kicking game (and goal kicking) and right edge, impact right across the park. I’d suggest this is a week where Flanagan looks to patch things up as best he can for one week, give it their best shot but know that within a week they’ll be back to normal.

I’m not sure where the media have been through recent weeks in addressing the poor results coach Griffin has provided with the Panthers this season, for mine he has escaped season to date some obvious attention. I’ve never been a fan of his (as a coach), for mine his record is propped up by Lockyer’s class, and his last two years at the Broncos were shocking delivering significant under performance with the quality of list he had. His key failing in my opinion is his inability to coach attack, coupled with his hair brained ideas in moving key individuals in and out of position (and or murdering their careers). Watch closely what the Panthers do when they play the last 30 mtrs in attack, they have zero idea in how to construct and set up a set of 6 to score (or advantage), zero idea how to work the defence to open a hole, create an overlap or decoy or target a defensive weakness, they just pass and play left to right and hope, hope that a slight piece of skill or muscle or defensive mistake allows them to score. I think the record now stands at 13 of their 18 games this yr have been decided one way or the other by 2 points or less, and people wonder why, this is why, the coach has zero idea (and for those who look closely at his Broncos record it reads the same – clearly Gould didn’t). And then look at players like Cartwright and Peachy, Cartwright is a right edge backrower with significant skill, not a 6, yet now being exposed at 6 while the team loses the benefits of his abilities in his former role; while Peachy is a middle impact forward who has the rare skill of being able to change up a game, the tempo, half breaks, touches of skill – now being wasted completely out of position as left centre….

It’s also not hard to punch holes in the Panthers form winning just 2 of their last 5, both with some large doses of luck against opponents who laid down for important periods of the game (Rabbits and Eagles). They are back at home, should be stung off their loss last week and face an under strength opponent. I’m with them, they get their chance, but lets not hold our breath.

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet


Raiders vs Cowboys

-12.5 Raiders

Stats

A decimated Cowboys side travels from the tropics of Townsville to a chilly Canberra to take on the Raiders in the final match of Round 18. North Queensland will be without 7 regulars through Origin and injury, while the Raiders are forced to make 2 changes with Papalii and Bateman out. The Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders, including 3 of the last 5 match ups at GIO Stadium, but they start this match at their longest price in 2 years. They have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, with their only away win coming in their last outing against the Rabbitohs in Cairns. The Cowboys remain in 3rd spot with the best attack and the 2nd best defence, while they also have the 2nd best differential. They are 9-7 ATS, while they are split 4-4 covering on the road and have covered in 15 of their last 21 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, while their last 4 on the road have finished Under, with none of them topping 30. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 4 meetings at GIO Stadium, while the Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. The Raiders are at home for the 2nd week in a row and have won 6 of 8 at GIO Stadium this season. They again start as a favourite and have won 5 of their last 6 in that position previously. The Raiders are currently 6th on the ladder and are 8th in defence, while they have the 2nd best attack in the comp with an average of 25 points per game (just a half a point average behind Nth Qld). Canberra is10-6 ATS, with a 5-3 record at home but they have covered in only 9 of their last 23 as a favourite dating back to 2014. The Raiders are 12-4 Over in TMP’s and 7-1 Over at home, with all 8 topping 41 at an average of 52, while the last 7 clashes with the Cowboys have also all topped 41. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have average records leading into a Bye, with the Cowboys losing 7 of their last 10, while the Raiders have lost 6 of their last 10. Both sides also have similar form lines, with each winning 3 of their last 5 and both having had a Bye and a loss. In MNF, the Cowboys have won 7 of their last 8, while the Raiders have lost 3 of their last 5 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 10-6 record in MNF and a 9-7 record ATS.

Preview

The Cowboys are the new Broncos with the Origin period really shortening them up, and they have also been highly disadvantaged by the draw this year having to play two games through this period without their key players. With Origin outs and injury they will line up here with 7 key outs in Thurston, Cooper, Scott, Tamou, and O’Neill (all Origin) and Morgan and Linnett (injury). Clearly that’s one long list of quality outs. They also then face an away game with young inexperienced replacements into the freezing cold of Canberra for a night game.

The trick with the Raiders is in working out when to try and catch them as they can be one hell of a head case at times and quickly flick off the boil. Good quality wins through the Bulldogs then Eagles yet with a little belief they then dropped their guard and were smacked by an under performing Broncos, off freshen up then work hard for good away win over Titans then back at home conceding a -26.5 line with the markets again drop their guard and have to storm home late into extra time for a golden point win. And that’s what we are dealing with here, but I think it’s again the right week to be with them. I wasn’t all that surprised that they were off last week, playing a weak opponent who had only won just the 1 game all season, at home, off a good win, but I’m hopeful that has then given them the necessary shake up into this week for Stuart to try and get their heads right to aim up and make a statement here. Their best should see them rolling through the middle with some strength and offer them some room to play, and that should lead to points, and potentially many. Their opponent should be short on combinations and attack options, and defensively much easier than normal to shut down. But, the Raiders have got to come to play.

Raiders get their chance, they have been good at home (winning 6 of their last 8) and get conditions (freezing) and a significantly weakened opponent to suit. If they get this right they can win comfortably, but with them nothing is straight forward and we’ll now have to see how they turn up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet


NSW vs QLD

I shall do a separate preview through the weekend for this game, but some short initial notes. Clearly NSW get their chance here, back at home, dead rubber game and some positive team changes, their should be no excuse. I do have concerns still over the stupidity of playing 5 front rowers, and if Daley will have any preparedness to ball play through the middle, play direct off his halves (who as of today are yet to be decided) or move the ball. If you thought I was harsh of Griffin don’t get me started on Daley or Fulton. Whereas QLD just get on with the job. No drama, solid selections, they no the drill, laced with brains and experience, and having again won the series buoyed with confidence and belief. Yes its a dead rubber game, but don’t we keep getting the feeling that Smith, Thurston and co just love beating NSW and giving it to them time and again?

So on one hand we have a choice of thinking this game is important to NSW, a hunch that they might get their attack right, and a hope that the new and inexperienced combinations work. Or the other choice is a mob who win when counting sheep in their sleep, know how to play the big stuff under pressure, are riding on the back of winning confidence and would love nothing more than to stick it to their opposition with a 3 zip result.

Being a dead rubber game it has lots of ifs and buts about it but I’m with the long term proven, the mob who win and we know what we are going to get, not the hopeful hunch.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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