NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16
Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016
Rd 16 Game Handicaps
-11.5 Panthers vs Rabbits
+8.5 Knights vs Dragons
-9.5 Sharks vs Warriors
-5.5 Bulldogs vs Broncos
+1.5 Titans vs Raiders
-14.5 Storm vs Tigers
-18.5 Cowboys vs Eagles
NRL Round 16 Recommended Bet List
Bet 2 units Panthers -7.5 $1.90 Sportsbet
Bet 3 units Bulldogs +1.5 $1.90 Unibet
Bet 2 units Raiders +1.5 $1.89 Crownbet
Bet 3 units Cowboys -15.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Individual Game Tips
Panthers, Dragons, Sharks, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Cowboys
Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Panthers vs Rabbits
Friday Night Football kicks off Round 16 when the Panthers play host to the Rabbitohs. It’s a must win game for both sides as they look to stay in touch with the Top 8. Penrith has had the week off but the break hasn’t proved beneficial in recent seasons, as they have lost 8 of their last 10 off a Bye, while the Rabbitohs are looking at 4 consecutive losses for the 2nd time this season and needing to win 7 of their last 10 matches to be any chance of Finals football. The Panthers have lost 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Rabbitohs, including 3 of the last 4 meetings played at Pepper Stadium. They have also only won 1 from 4 at their true home ground this season. In 12 of the Panthers 13 matches, the winning margin has been by 1-12, with Penrith winning only half of those. They are 8-5 ATS with a 13-13 covering record at Pepper Stadium since 2014, while they have a 14-13 covering record as a favourite over the same period. They are 7-6 Under in TMP’s and are an Unders side when playing under lights, producing a 26-11 Under record since 2014. In their last 8 matches and in 13 of their last 16 at home, the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Panthers are ranked 12th in attack and 7th in defence to sit in 9th spot on the ladder. The Rabbitohs season appears to be on a downward spiral off the back of 3 straight losses and 9 losses from their last 12 matches. They are 13th on the ladder with the 9th ranked attack and the 11th ranked defence, conceding an average of 30 points a game from their last 8. They have trailed at half time in 8 of their last 9 and conceded 1st points in 7 of them. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games of FNF and 3 of their last 4 on the road. Souths are 5-9 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 10-4 Over with their last 6 totaling 42 or more. From 2008 to 2013, 8 of 9 clashes between these sides have totaled 48 or more with an average of 56, but the last 3 encounters have all finished Under with an average just 26. The home team has won 9 of 11 matches refereed by Gavin Badger in 2016, with an 8-3 record ATS.
Rabbits again with long list of outs losing Reynolds from Origin, Carter, Nielsen, Goodwin, Talakai and Auva’a over just the last few weeks and then add in George Burgess and Hymel Hunt longer term they have at least 8 top grade outs. They have now lost 7 of their last 9 and conceded 30 points a week at their last 8 outings, clearly they are limping.
The Panthers sit mid table and are only just the one win above the Rabbits and need to string some wins together. This match up is typical of their form, winning through teams in the bottom 8, and they got out of jail with their latest effort when storming home against a crumbling Eagles. They come off the bye freshen up, hopefully an advantage here and play back at home.
On paper the Panthers should have significant advantage, but they can be patchy and inconsistent but I’m going with them aiming up here. The Rabbits look a mess, riddled with outs and clearly at lack of unity it’s hard to see with any pressure applied how the go the distance here.
Bet 2 units Panthers -7.5 $1.90 Sportsbet
Knights vs Dragons
There is nothing super about the opening game of Super Saturday when the Knights meet the Dragons at Hunter Stadium. Both sides are ranked at the bottom of the attack rankings and when combined they have still scored fewer tries than the Cowboys, Broncos and Raiders. The Knights are on an 8 game losing streak and have a very poor record against the Dragons, who have won 8 of the last 10 clashes and 10 of the previous 11 clashes played at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle has just the 1 win after 15 Rounds while the Dragons have registered just the 1 win on the road, losing 6 of 7. In 7 of the last 9 clashes the TMP’s have totaled 38 or less, while a Penalty Goal has opened the scoring in 5 of the previous 9 meetings. The Dragons are split evenly ATS with a 7-7 result, while they are 2-5 on the road. They are 11-3 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-1 Under record away from home. They sit in 11th spot on the ladder and 8th in defence, while they are ranked 2nd last in attack, averaging just over 12 points a game. The Knights are 5-9 ATS, but have a healthy 13-3 record since 2014 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 8- 6 Over and are 13-6 Over in day matches at home since 2014. It’s already been a tough season for Newcastle who have been anchored at the bottom of the ladder for the last 7 weeks and they are also ranked 16th in both attack and defence. They have conceded the 1st try in 12 of their 14 matches and have conceded the last try in 9 of their last 10. Only once all season have they posted a score of more than 20 points, while they have conceded fewer than 20 on just 2 occasions.
Knights have lost their last 8, have won just the 1 game and are leaking 36 points a week. But off a week off and playing at home where they offer their best efforts plus their preparedness to use the footy they might stretch their opponent.
It’s farcical that the Dragons sit mid table with a 50% win record. Last week against a team riddled with 5 or more key outs and playing kids in first up top grade games in key spine roles they were very very close to a major upset loss. The Storm had two near tries where the ball had been placed just short of the line on both occasions, those additional 12 points at the time would have made things very interesting. They do get Frizelle and Dugan back here, and should win, but their attack is just painful to watch as they are so poorly coached.
Ugly game I shall be staying well clear of.
Sharks vs Warriors
The table topping Sharks host the 10th placed Warriors in the 2nd game of Super Saturday. It’s a milestone match for both sides, with the Sharks aiming to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, while the Warriors will be looking to make it 4 straight victories for the 1st time since 2013. The Warriors caused a major upset when they last travelled to Shark Park to record just their 2nd win at the ground in 9 years. Cronulla has won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Warriors and they are yet to taste defeat at home this season, winning 7 from 7. They are ranked 4th in attack, while they rank 2 nd in defence giving them the 4th best differential. The Sharks are the 2nd best covering side in the NRL, with a 9-4 record, while they have covered in 11 of their last 16 at home since Round 6 last year. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Under, with a 5-2 Under record at home and an 11-2 Under record since 2015 when playing at home under lights. Consider Valentine Holmes in FTS calculations as he has scored 4 tries from his last 5 games at Shark Park. The Warriors will make the trip across the ditch for only the 2nd time in 2 months and it’s the 1st of 5 away games that they will play from their next 8. They are 3 and 4 on the road in 2016 but their long term away record is poor, winning 11 of their past 35 matches played on Aussie soil. They are ranked 6th in attack but are a lowly 14th in defence, conceding an average of 24 points a game. They are 6-8 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 15 matches as a road dog. The Warriors favour the Overs in TMP’s, with a 10-4 record, with 9 of their last 11 totaling 42 or more. The TMP’s have finished Under in 5 of the previous 6 clashes between these 2 sides, with an average of 34, while only 2 of the last 8 meetings at Shark Park have topped 40. In 8 of the last 9 matches where Grant Atkins has been the lead referee, the home side has failed to cover the line.
For mine a danger game for the Sharks. Having won 10 straight and coming off a very good last start win over the Cowboys plus 5 players backing up off a disheartening NSW Origin loss there has to be some risk of flatness and or complacency. I have no knock on them, that last start win at home vs Cowboys is as good as they have played for many years and a right rating quality form game, but there is going to be a dip or two through the weeks ahead.
Warriors while winning looked back to their complacent patchy best last week, and they have their key play maker in Johnson clearly playing on a leg injury. They have won 3 straight but this is only their second road game into Oz in the last two months and they now walk into a far tougher top of table opponent at full strength as opposed to some of what they have played through recent weeks.
I certainly expect the Sharks win, and their defence at anywhere near where it has been should well be enough to frustrate and shut down the Warriors. But they kiwis can pull one out of their backside and switch on some width ball movement and open things up which against a tired opponent could make things difficult conceding a long line. Sharks to win but happy to just watch.
Bulldogs vs Broncos
The Bulldogs and Broncos clash at ANZ Stadium to close out Super Saturday. Both sides have a number of players backing up from Origin and the makeup of the sides will have a major bearing on the outcome. Brisbane has had the better of the Bulldogs in recent seasons, winning 4 of the last 5 clashes, including the last 2 meetings at ANZ Stadium. Both sides have had the week off and both sides have been average off a Bye, with the Dogs losing 6 of their last 9 at home off the break, while Brisbane have been a 50/50 proposition since 2009. The Broncos snapped a 3 game losing streak when they defeated the Raiders prior to the Bye and will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 4 with a victory over the inconsistent Bulldogs. They return to ANZ Stadium for the 1st time since last year’s Grand Final loss where they have lost 5 of their last 7, with their 2 wins coming at the expense of the Bulldogs. Brisbane are split evenly ATS with a 7-7 record, while they have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Dogs. They are 8-6 Under in TMP’s, while 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Dogs have also finished Under, with only 1 of them finishing higher than 38 points. A Broncos try has been the 1 st scoring play in 3 of the last 4 against the Dogs, while they have scored the last try of the match in the previous 6 clashes. The Bulldogs have been hard to catch with 8 wins and 6 losses and have lost 6 of their last 10 as an underdog. They have won 5 of 8 at ANZ Stadium and covered a line in just 4 of them. In their last 9 matches they have gone to half time with a lead but they have gone on to win just 5 of those. They are 6-8 ATS, with a 14-12 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are split evenly with a 7-7 result, with a 5-3 Over result at ANZ Stadium. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6 but they have conceded the last try of the match in 5 of their last 7. Curtis Rona has scored 21 tries from his 22 appearances at ANZ Stadium for the Bulldogs. Only 2 of the Bulldogs 9 last matches have had a margin result of 13+, while 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Broncos have been decided by a margin of 1-12.
The Broncos look in some trouble at present and their outs are a little more deeper than possibly being given coverage at present, with Thaiday, Glenn, McCullough, Kahu and Reed all on the sidelines and then the obvious 5 back ups off Origin (Boyd, McGuire, Gillett, Parker and Oates). What has also happened with these outs is they have lost their left edge combinations in Glenn, Reed and Kahu (shouldn’t be hard to see where the Bulldogs will want to target) and then Thaiday on the right.
While probably not too much of an issue I will be interested to see how Parker and a few around him handle this week and the next few on the back of his “forced” retirement this week. Contrary to all the media fanfare he did not want to retire and had actually been in serious talks and agreement through the last 6 weeks for a further 1 yr extension until Bennett returned home from England last weekend and tapped him on the shoulder and sweetened the deal with promises of long term life after footy roles with the club (which would have happened anyway). You see Bennett has a major problem right now coming up with the big cash required to re sign Gillett and his cap is full after the juggle he did back in January to get Roberts. Even with Reed heading to England and other reshuffles (including using the money pits of 3rd party support that they have) they haven’t been able to get close. Parker is not happy, but professional enough to know these things happen, but right now the Broncos need all hands on deck given all of their outs and key back ups.
Look a little more closely at their form and but for the fact their last start win at home has taken some glare off it all they are in some trouble. They have now lost 4 of their last 6 and those two wins don’t read all that strongly beating a hapless Eagles and then a Raiders offering last start who laid down for the first 50 minutes. They now travel interstate and face a big physical forward line up with a damaged list.
Clearly the Bulldogs get their chance. They come off the bye and have just the two forwards to back up but also have strong forward depth. They should well have won their last 5 straight but have also had issues with late fades and nailing their games / opponents for the full 80 minutes. They have tho been showing a sharper preparedness through the last 3 to 4 outings to play with the ball and move sides around to advantage.
My numbers rate this with the Bulldogs to advantage, and they can have no excuse here. They should be strong through the middle, look to keep working the Broncos over and target their left edge consistently. I want to be with them.
Bet 3 units Bulldogs +1.5 $1.90 Unibet
Titans vs Raiders
The Titans are at home for the 2nd week in a row when they face the Raiders in what shapes as one of the better matches of the Round. The Titans have won 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders, as well as winning 6 of the 8 meetings at CBus Super Stadium. They have moved back into the 8 after disposing of Manly in a good win on Monday night and a win this week will see them leap frog Canberra. They have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 26 points or more in all 4 wins which now sees them rank 8 th in attack and 9th in defence, giving them a differential of -6. They continue to be the number 1 covering side in the competition with a 10-4 record ATS, with a 5-2 record at home, while they are 4-7 as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s the Titans are split evenly, producing a 7-7 result, while 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders have totaled 40 or more. In the previous 7 clashes the Titans have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half and in 5 of the last 6 they have scored the last try of the match. The Raiders have had the week off and have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road when returning from a Bye, while they have also lost 4 of their last 5 away games. Only once this season have the Raiders been positioned outside the 8, while they are ranked 3rd in attack and 9th in defence. They are 9-5 ATS, with a 4-3 record away from home, while they have covered a line in 20 of their last 28 on the road when getting a start. Their TMP record is 10-4 in favour of the Over and they have also been an Overs side in day games, producing a 26-10 result over the last 3 seasons. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Titans, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The home team has won the last 5 matches with Gerard Sutton in charge.
Titans have been very good to us but they do look a major risk here. They got the right opponent last Monday yet still looked only fair, they might well have now found their level for this season and this won’t be straight forward. the worry is that through their last 4 games they have either a) been consistently opened up through the middle via shark dummy half darts, ball play or short forward plays, and b) conceding way too much in defence. Although the Eagles only scored 10 points Parcell did very well out of dummy half and split them many times with sharp incisive runs only to be left playing a single hand, that won’t be the case here. They Raiders have two quality 9’s capably for sharp work around the play the ball and a couple of forwards and halves who can play down through the middle to effect. Some weeks you play opponents who have strengths that can hurt you and for the Titans I think this has the potential to be one of those games.
The Raiders shit themselves under some expectation last start vs the Broncos in Brisbane, laid down for the first 50 minutes and were very poor. Their best is much much better than that, they are off a break, Stuart would have spent all week looking to get their heads right and focused back on a very positive effort here. They just need to play to their strengths, pound through the middle, play off the back of their 9, 7 and 6, use the ball, play some footy.
Like the Raiders chances here. Pending Sunday weather and likely final teams news I will also be considering the total points option (to be advised).
Bet 2 units Raiders +1.5 $1.89 Crownbet
Storm vs Tigers
The Storm will be keen to get back to the winners circle when they take on the Tigers at AAMI Park. The Dragons ended Melbourne’s 7 game winning run last week but the Storm have a number of key ins this week which sees them start at their shortest price since Round 5. They have won 6 from 7 at home this season and have also won 10 of the 11 clashes with the Tigers that have been played in Melbourne. The Storm sit 2nd on the ladder with the 5th best attack, while they have the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding 11.1 points a game, with last week’s loss being the 1st time this season that they have conceded 20 points. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 4-3 record at home, while they have a 5-5 covering record at home since 2014 when giving up a double digit start. Melbourne is 11-3 Under in TMP’s, with only 1 of their last 6 matches totaling more than 38 and low scoring affairs have also been the norm when they have met the Tigers with 7 of the last 8 clashes totaling 38 or less. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 12 meetings with the Tigers, while Melbourne has scored the 1st points of the match in 11 of their 14 matches this season. In 8 of the Storm’s last 9 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute. The Tigers come into this match after winning 3 of their last 4 but they have a very poor record when travelling, winning only 5 of their last 22 away games and 3 of their last 12 when playing interstate. They have also recorded just 1 win from 6 matches this season against a current Top 8 opponent. They currently sit in 12th spot, with the 2nd worst defensive record in the comp, conceding an average of 25 points a game, while they are ranked 10th in attack. The Tigers are 6-8 ATS and have a 10-20 covering record as an away side since 2014. In TMP’s they are 8-6 in favour of the Overs and they also favour the Over on the road, producing a 19-12 result since 2014. It’s now 14 consecutive games for the Tigers where they have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half and only the Knights have conceded more 2nd half points than the Tigers. A winning margin of 13+ was the result in 5 consecutive matches prior to the Golden Point match when these sides last met.
Just a word of caution on waiting for final team announcements here, especially with the Storm given they had 3 late outs last week and also have 2 key Origin backups.
Tigers have won their last 3 of their last 4 but questionable form strength and can be hard to catch. They have a terrible record in Melbourne (lost 10 of last 11), when away (lost 22 of last 27) and when away interstate (lost 9 of last 12) so clearly up against it here. To be any chance they’ll need to risk their hand and play up tempo and attack and move the Storm out of the comfort of their arm wrestle style.
If the Storm are at full strength then their form is very strong, their defence has been outstanding, record at home also excellent winning 6 of last 7. At full strength then I think there is panels between them and I have it handicapped as a 16 point gap, but the final question is who plays.
Cowboys vs Eagles
The final match of Round 16 sees the struggling Sea Eagles travel to Townsville where they will wrap up their Qld road trip when they take on the Cowboys. This clash shapes up as one of the more lopsided matches of the Round, provided all of the Cowboys Origin players are able to back up. Manly holds a 15-11 all time advantage over North Queensland but the Cowboys have won the 4 most recent encounters, with 3 of those 4 wins coming by 14 points or more. The Cowboys come into this match after some patchy form with 3 losses from their last 5 but they will be fresh after the break and their record post Bye is a good one, recording 8 wins from their last 10 matches after the week off. They are also yet to be beaten at home this season, winning 7 from 7 and they have won 16 of their last 18 at home long term. They currently hold down 3rd spot on the ladder and have the 3rd best defensive record, while they remain the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL, averaging 26 points a game. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 5-2 covering record at home, while they have covered in 9 of their last 11 at home when giving up a double digit start and they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 games of MNF. The Cowboys are split 7-7 in TMP’s, while they are 5-2 Over since 2015 in MNF. In 5 of the last 6 clashes with Manly the TMP’s have totaled 42 or more. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 7 of their home games as well as in the previous 3 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles are playing back to back distant away games and have now lost 6 in a row. In 5 of the 6 losses they have conceded 30 points or more which sees them rank 12th in defence, while they are 13th in attack. Manly are 4-10 ATS with a 3-4 record on the road, while they have covered in 6 of their last 8 away from home when getting more than a 6 point start. They are 8-6 Under in TMP’s with 3 of their last 4 on the road finishing that way, while they are 6-3 Under in MNF since 2014. The home side has won and covered a line in 8 of the last 9 matches when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.
I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t start as a 20 something line by game time. Cowboys will be without Morgan but get nice long turnaround, Origin players 5 day between games, at home (7 from 7 this season) and will be very keen to atone off their last start loss to the Sharks. They look to have strength and physical muscle in the match ups right across the park.
Eagles limping badly, may have one or two ins but Barrett keeps playing games with this named teams, they may also have a few more key outs as Walker looked troubled by injury late on Wednesday as did Trbojevic. They have lost their last 6 straight, have been touched up recently on the road when into interstate games in Brisbane and Gold Coast and now face back to back away games into Townsville. They were embarrassed last Monday night having a mid table side put 30 on them and now face a cranky premiers off a loss on tehir home turf.
If the Cowboys are half serious and play everyone listed then they should be winning by some 20 to 30 points here.
Bet 3 units Cowboys -15.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB
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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
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