NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10


Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016

Rd 10 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+1.5 Dragons vs Raiders

-7.5 Eels vs Rabbits

-3.5 Panthers vs Warriors

+10.5 Storm vs Cowboys

+13.5 Eagles vs Broncos

+ 13.5 Knights vs Sharks

+8.5 Tigers vs Bulldogs

+1.5 Titans vs Roosters

NRL Round 10 Recommended Bet List


Bet 2 units Eels -5.5 $1.90 William Hill / -6.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys -6.0 $1.90 CrownBet

Bet 2 units Cowboys H2H $1.48 x Broncos H2H $1.18 CrownBet  BB

Bet 2 unit Knights +17.5 $1.96 Pinnacle / +16.0 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Tigers +8.5 $1.80 NSW TAB

Bet 1 unit Tigers H2H $3.10 Centrebet

Bet 2 unit Titans +6.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

Individual Game Tips

Raiders, Eels, Warriors, Cowboys, Broncos, Sharks, Bulldogs, Titans

Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Dragons vs Raiders

+1.5 Dragons


The Raiders travel to Kogarah to take on the Dragons in what will be the 1 st game of the season for StGeorge Illawarra at the newly named UWO Jubilee Stadium. After recording only 1 win in 11 years against Canberra, the Dragons have now won the last 3 encounters with the Raiders. They are undefeated as a home side this season, securing 3 of their 4 wins when playing with the home ground advantage. Their record at Kogorah is also a positive as they have won 6 of their last 8 at the ground. They are 4-5 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 8 at Jubilee Oval and they have also covered in their last 3 clashes with the Raiders. The Dragons are 8-1 Under and they have the lowest TMP average in the competition at 31, with all of their matches totaling 38 points or less. Kalifa Faifai Loa has played in the Dragons last 3 matches and in all 3 games he has scored a try. The Raiders have won only 1 of 4 matches on the road this season and start as an away favourite for only the 3 rd time in 3 seasons. Their record ATS is the same as the Dragons with a 4-5 result, while they are 2-2 covering as an away side. The Raiders are 6-3 Over with just 2 of their matches totaling less than 40, while the previous 8 clashes with the Dragons have also finished with a total of 40 or more.


Just don’t like the game. Both sides have a number of players backing up on short turnarounds in particular their two big props. Dragons form line is terrible, they were pathetic against an under strength Warriors side last start, but they haven’t been much better previously.Clearly averaging 10 points a game in attack they have massive problems, and it they get behind and or have to chase they are in deep trouble (like last game). They do return to Kogarah which must help they.

Raiders had their chances vs Panthers, that’s a stronger form line, the key advantage I see in them is that in their 9, 7 and 6 they have some line break, ball play and attack options, plus a preparedness to actually play some attack. That just has to be an advantage here.

Don’t like the game, tipping Raiders,going with any advantage they might have with any luck in attack and points.

Eels vs Rabbits

-7.5 Eels


The Rabbits have a dominant record over Parramatta in recent times, winning 8 of the last 9 meetings, but wins have been few and far between for the Rabbitohs when travelling to Pirtek Stadium, with the Eels winning 9 of the previous 10 clashes that have been played at the ground. After winning their opening 2 matches the Rabbits have now lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 of their last 4 on the road. In all 6 losses they have trailed at half time and conceded 1st points, and only once in their last 7 have they scored more than 1 1st half try. They are 3-6 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 7 matches when getting a start. In TMP’s they have a 5-4 record in favour of the Overs, while they are 12-6 Under as an away side since 2015. The 1st match for the Eels since the salary cap penalties have been announced should provide them with plenty of incentive. They have won 6 of their last 8 which is double the amount of wins they had after 9 Rounds last year, with 4 of the 6 wins coming against sides currently positioned in the Top 8. They are 6-3 ATS and have covered a line in 6 of their last 8 when giving up a start. They have a 7-2 TMP record in favour of the Unders in 2016, while they are split 11-11 at Pirtek Stadium since 2014. The Eels have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal 3 times this season, which equals the amount of times for this play in their previous 5 seasons combined. They have scored the 1st points of the match in 6 of 9, while no side has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half more than Parramatta with 7. 7 of the last 8 clashes have been decided by a margin of 13+, while 7 of the last 9 encounters have topped 40 points.


Eels clearly have been through a lot over the last week including the Peats exit (which is as expected) but my view remains the same that they will have a unified approach under Arthur into this game and in front of a full house baying for bloody will be very hard to beat. They play their best footy at this ground, added to which they have an excellent record here against the Rabbits winning 9 of the last 10, and just to illustrate how solid they are at present they come off a quality win vs Bulldogs where in the days prior they had the late out of Foran yet offered a high quality, physical performance. Arthur has they on plan, he has broken down what they can control, what they need to focus on and how he wants them to go about their business and regardless of all the other background crap I like being with teams that have such an approach and are rolling along in good solid form.

As for the Rabbits, well the script could be nothing much more than the opposite. They have lost their last 4 straight, have rolled over meekly in 3 of those defeats, are near soft as butter through the middle and as I have suggested for many weeks now clearly have significant internal issues. Had the Eels disaster not have broken and the diversion of last weekends rep round have occurred I can assure you the Rabbits would have copped far more media focus, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. Their last offering against the Tigers was terrible and just reeked of a side lacking harmony and tired of the coach and his methods, and sadly we now have a Coach vs Players scenario unfolding. Grevsmuhl is now gone, Keary is on the outer and will leave and Clark and Tyrrell have been told this week to look elsewhere, and that’s just the surface of it all.

De Gois will fill in fine at #9 for Eels, I trust what ever Arthur does at #6 in lieu of Foran, and for mine its the right week to be with the Eels.

Bet 2 units Eels -5.5 $1.90 William Hill / -6.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Panthers vs Warriors

-3.5 Panthers



A home game for Penrith but it will be played at AMI Stadium in Christchurch which will see the Panthers on the road for the 4 th consecutive week. The Panthers have a good recent record over the Warriors having won 5 of the last 6 and they will be out to break a loss win sequence that they have been on since Round 2. All of the Panthers matches to this point have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and this has also been the result in the last 4 clashes with the Warriors that have been played in New Zealand. They have covered the line in 6 of their 9 matches in 2016 and in 4 of their last 5 games played away from Pepper Stadium, while they have a 12- 12 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are 6-3 in favour of the Unders, with a 5-1 Under record away from Pepper Stadium, while they are 20-13 Under since 2014 when playing away from their true home ground. They have conceded 1st points of the match in 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Warriors and in 5 of their 9 games this season. The Warriors are currently positioned outside the Top 8 but have won 4 of their last 6, although 3 of the 4 wins have been against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, while they are 1-3 against a current Top 8 opponent. They have a 2-3 record at AMI Stadium and haven’t played at the ground since 2010. Only twice this season have the Warriors conceded less than 20 points in a match and that was against sides currently ranked 15th and 16th in attack. They are 4-5 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 9 when getting a start, while they have failed to cover in their last 4 in New Zealand in the same position. They are 6-3 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 topping 42 or more, while 7 of the previous 8 clashes against the Panthers played in New Zealand have resulted in TMP’s of 44 or more.


Looks a trick game. Panthers are on the road for their 4th away game in a row even though they host this in Christchurch. They are yet to win by a margin greater than 2 points, and while they look talented, display patches of quality they still sit mid table at 4 from 9.

Obviously the Warriors are a risk every week, but I have them rated a good chance here. The shake up through recent weeks may well take effect, the spare parts side that won last start showed some real attitude and they get some key ins back for this game. Aiming up again when carrying little expectation would not surprise, its their specialty.

Tipping Warriors to show up, limited confidence, certainly a no bet game.

Storm vs Cowboys

+10.5 Storm

Suncorp Stadium Brisbane


The 1st match of the double header in what will be a full house at Suncorp Stadium sees the Storm take on the Cowboys in a Top 3 clash. The Cowboys have had the better of the Storm in recent times, winning 4 of the last 6 clashes, including their last meeting in the Preliminary Final when the Cowboys recorded their biggest ever win over the Storm when playing in Melbourne. The Cowboys sit at the top of the table for the 1st time this season with the best attacking record in the comp, while they are currently ranked 4th in defence. They have won their last 5 and have covered the line in their last 7 matches straight to be 7-2 ATS after 9 Rounds. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 16 points or more, while no side has conceded fewer 1st half points than the Cowboys, with an average of just 6. In TMP’s they are 6-3 Over, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm have finished Under. This week’s lineup remains unchanged once again and no side has used fewer players than the Cowboys with 19 (equal fewest with the Sharks). Gavin Cooper has scored at least once in the Cowboys last 5 matches and on 3 occasions he has been the 1st try scorer of the match. The Cowboys have scored at least 2 tries in all 9 matches this season attacking to their right edge with both O’Neill and Feldt bagging 6 tries each. After some indifferent form, the Storm has now won 4 of their last 5 and in their last 2 matches they have scored a total of 80 points and conceded zero. They have been fortunate in their draw to this point, with all 7 wins coming against sides out of the Top 8 while their 2 losses have been against sides currently in the 8. Their record ATS is 4-5, while they have a 10-9 covering record since when 2014 when getting a start. Melbourne has a TMP record of 7-2 Under, with 6 of their last 7 decided that way and their long term record also favours the Under with a 24-11 result since the start of the 2015 season. Only once in 11 years have the Storm tasted defeat at Suncorp Stadium, winning 9 of their last 10 at the ground but all of those matches were against the Broncos. Suliasa Vunivalu has bagged a double in all 3 appearances for Melbourne, while Cooper Cronk has scored 6 tries in his last 5 games.


I may well be wrong but I am just no rap for the form line that the Storm come through or how they have been playing when under any pressure. I think their last two wins are paper thin, yes they won well but in both instances their opponents laid down and handed them soft victories on a platter (and in both instances I was wrong expecting both opponents would play far better). If we then go back a few weeks they got out of jail with late wins against the Tigers and Knights and dusted up by the Bulldogs (which also doesn’t read all that well). Sometimes the draw can kiss you on the backside, I have no doubt that if they had come through recent weeks with 3 or 4 games against those at the top of the table it would all read very differently.

Now they do, and they meet one of the competitions measuring sticks on neutral turf in Brisbane. The Cowboys are 7 from 9, have won their last 5 straight and there’s some depth to that form line, more importantly there is some quality, confidence and belief to it. They have size and depth to hit through the middle, ball play the ruck edge (which the Storm don’t like) and then attack and finishing to play to numbers down either outside edge; most importantly Thurston is in fine form and his short kicking game through recent outings has been outstanding.

The Cowboys dusted this contest up clearly when they last met in a semi final late last year (in Melbourne) 32-12, I think the Cowboys have improved.

Bet 2 units Cowboys -6.0 $1.90 CrownBet

Eagles vs Broncos

+13.5 Eagles

Suncorp Stadium Brisbane


The final game of Super Saturday and the 3rd consecutive game with the home team playing at an alternate home ground will see Manly travel to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Broncos. The Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 clashes with Brisbane but they are rank outsiders in this contest and have opened at the 3rd longest H2H price of the season at $5. They do have form on the road, winning 7 of their last 8 away from Brookvale Oval, including their last 3, but have been comprehensively beaten in their last 2 starts at Suncorp Stadium, losing by 26 and 34 points against the Broncos. They are 3-6 ATS and have a 12-11 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. They have opened with a 14 point start here and teams with a double digit advantage in 2016 have only covered in 3 of 13 matches. Their TMP record is 5-4 Under, while 6 of the previous 8 meetings with the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium have finished Over. Only twice this season have the Sea Eagles led at half time and only twice has a Manly try been the 1st scoring play. Brett Stewart is an unlikely starter and the Sea Eagles are winless this season when he hasn’t played, losing 3 from 3. Like Manly, Brisbane comes into this match as a last start loser after winning 5 straight. They are currently ranked 2nd in both attack and defence to sit 2 nd on the ladder and are the only side that hasn’t been outside of the Top 5 all season. They are 5-4 ATS and have covered a line in 14 of their past 18 games at Suncorp Stadium. They are also unbeaten at Suncorp Stadium this season, winning 5 from 5 and long term they have won 16 of their last 18 at the ground. They have a 5-4 record in favour of the Unders, while they are 11-8 Over at Suncorp since 2015. Brisbane has opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal 4 times this season, 3 of them have been at Suncorp, while they have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 9 matches. They have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half on 5 occasions and in their last 3 matches Corey Oates has scored their 1st try of the 2nd half. The Broncos have conceded just 4 tries down their right edge in defence (equal 1st with Cowboys). It’s now 8 straight games where the TMP’s have finished Unders when Jarred Maxwell is in charge with an average of less than 30 and none of them have finished above the total of 40.5 set for this match.


Stewart and Matai key outs for Eagles, and they are 0 from 3 this season when without Stewart, Jake Trbojevic is also subject to a final fitness test but likely to play. Broncos also have key outs with Blair, Glenn and McCullough missing, 3 key forward outs.

Broncos are very good at home and come off a loss they’ll clearly be hard to beat here, especially with stronger depth and combination than their opponents. The market has this right at somewhere around 13 but there are too many ifs for me about the Broncos winning by 3 to 4 trys to cover the line to play. Two key middle players out, in particular their enforcer, make shit #9 who is not up to this grade. I expect they get the job done but I’m just happy to include them at the straight up position.

+13.5 Knights vs Sharks



These 2 sides come into this match with completing contrasting results, the Sharks having lost just 1 of their last 7, while the Knights have won only 1 of their last 7. The Sharks have won the 2 most recent encounters with Newcastle, but the Knights have caused the Sharks some problems prior, winning 8 of the previous 9 and 6 of the previous 8 played at Hunter Stadium. The Knights only win was a 2 point victory over the Tigers a week after the Sharks beat the Tigers by 8. 6 of the Knights 7 losses have been by a margin of 13+, while their average losing margin is 28 points and in their last 3 matches they have conceded 117 points and scored just 10. They are currently 3-6 ATS, while they are 12-1 when covering as a home underdog. They are 5-4 Over in TMP’s, while 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Sharks have finished less than 40 points. The Knights have already conceded 51 tries in 2016, which is 20 more than they had conceded after 9 Rounds last year. The Sharks are aiming for 7 consecutive wins and if they defeat the Knights it will be the 1st time since 2002 that they have won 7 on the trot. 5 of their last 6 wins have been by a margin of 1-12 points and they have never beaten the Knights at Hunter Stadium by more than 10 points. They have scored the 1st try of the match in 7 of their last 8 and in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Knights. Their ATS record is 6-3, while they are 15-14 since 2014 when covering as an away side. They are 5-4 Under in TMP’s, with a 16-13 Over record on the road since 2014. It’s a danger game for the Sharks after coming off a big game against the Broncos into a side coming last that has a healthy H2H record over their opponent.


Clearly the Sharks should win against the cellar dwellers of the competition, but with the length of line on offer for the Knights at home I am interested. Mullen is a key out, but their forward line up is as strong as it has been season to date. At home this season they are 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss, and where in the defeat right up to the death and had 3 tries disallowed during the game. As mentioned previously I am sure Nathan Brown is targeting these home games for their best performances and they are getting significant home town / big crowd support, and they should benefit from a week off freshen up. No knock on the Sharks, we were with them last start for their impressive first half domination of the Broncos, but they would also have had plenty of back slapping off that win and easily see this as “a just turn up win” game.

Home sides with a long line start (8 or more) have a huge record of covering the line at 69%. Since 2008 home sides getting 8 or more line start in rounds 5 to 11 have a 15-3 record of covering, and since that same year the Knights when home underdogs getting 6.5 or more start are 9-2. The 16 or more looks a very healthy leg up advantage here, if you can bet with Pinnacle you can get as good as 17.5.

Bet 2 unit Knights +17.5 $1.96 Pinnacle / +16.0 Centrebet

+8.5 Tigers vs Bulldogs




The Bulldogs have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Tigers, including 2 Golden Point results. They are coming off an 8 point loss to the Eels to stretch their win loss sequence to 8 matches. The Dogs have won 8 of their last 11 matches played at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 5 of those. Their ATS record in 2016 is currently 3-6 and they have covered the line in only 1 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers. In TMP’s, the Bulldogs are 6-3 in favour of the Under and since 2014 they have a 21-13 Under record both as an away side and in matches played at ANZ Stadium. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 11 clashes with the Tigers, while Curtis Rona has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer in their last 2 matches and has scored 17 tries from 18 appearances at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers broke a 6 game losing streak in their last start to record just their 3rd win of the season. It’s a home game for the Tigers but their record at ANZ Stadium is poor as they have lost twice as many games as they have won at the ground since 2011, winning 8 and losing 16. They are 4-5 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 8 matches when getting a double digit start. The Tigers are 6-3 Over in TMP’s, with the 6 Overs results all totaling 48 points or more, while they are 5-2 Under in day games at ANZ Stadium since 2014. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 9 matches and only once have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. While in 7 of their 9 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. Recent meetings between these sides have been high scoring affairs with the last 7 clashes totaling 40 points or more at an average of 49.


I found this game very tricky to line up. I think the markets keep pricing and judging the Bulldogs on potential, not their actual play or results. They have scraped through their last 3 games with spluttered offerings and seem hell bent of leading their opponent into a physical arm wrestle. I still think they have major problems at 9, 7 and 6, the combinations are just not working, they struggle to play direct or on the front foot. Worst still is if they have to chase points they have a problem that is then well out of their comfort zone.

I have a big watch on the Tigers here. They have 4 key player ins, notably up front on Woods and Grant, get Moses back at 6 and the experienced Elijah Taylor onto their bench. They aimed up last start with a quality win under some pressure and will turn up here a much stronger team. What they do have is some points in them, and at any stage if they can jump the Bulldogs they can turn this game on its head. How they approach their play will be critical, they’ll need to ensure that they maintain an up tempo game, continue to attack and look to break things open.

The Bulldogs have failed to cover the line at 5 of their last 6 at the ground, and at all of their last 4 games straight. The Tigers have been heavily bet line and H2H through recent days on the news that they will have the keys ins named plus the benefit of a nice dry sunny Sunday afternoon. I think the Tigers are a decent chance, I want to have a small interest on them winning plus some insurance with the line start.

Bet 1 unit Tigers +8.5 $1.80 NSW TAB

Bet 1 unit Tigers H2H $3.10 Centrebet

Titans vs Roosters

+1.5 Titans


The final game of the Round sees 2 sides struggling at the wrong end of the ladder when the Roosters travel to the glitter strip to take on the Titans. Things may be well be on the up for the Roosters with key personnel returning last start when they cruised to victory over the Knights for a 38-0 win, while it was the complete opposite result for the Titans who went down to the Storm by 38-0 in what was their worst performance of the season to make it 5 consecutive losses. Wins have been shared equally since 2009, with the Roosters winning the 2 most recent clashes to square the ledger at 5 wins a piece from the last 10 meetings. Home ground advantage has meant little when these sides have met, with the away team winning 8 of the 13 clashes. The Titans dropped 3 places after their loss to the Storm to sit 13th which is their lowest position on the ladder season to date. They are ranked 11th in attack and 13th in defence. They have been profitable ATS, producing a 6-3 result, while their long term covering record as an underdog is 27-19 since 2014 and this record improves when they get a start at home producing a 12-7 result over the same period. In TMP’s they are 5-4 Over and 10- 7 Over at home in night matches since 2014. 4 of the Titans 6 losses have been by single figures and there have been plenty of tight contests with the Roosters, with 5 of the previous 6 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12. They have trailed at half time in their last 8 matches and conceded the 1st try of the match in 7 of them. In MNF the Titans have won 4 of 8 since 2014 and covered a line in 6 of the 8. For just the 2nd time this season, the Roosters are sitting higher than 16th spot on the ladder and a victory will give them B2B wins for the 1st time this season. They are ranked 13th in attack and 12th in defence. They are 3-6 ATS and on the road they are 5-6 from the last 2 seasons when giving up more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 6-3 Over, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans have also finished Overs. In MNF, the Roosters have won 8 of 11 since 2013 but have covered a line in only 2 of 6 since 2014, while 4 of their last 5 Monday fixtures have finished Under. The home side has covered the line in 5 of 7 when Gavin Badger has been in charge.


The Titans have a lot in their favour here and have been well supported at the line (now into 4.5). They were thumped last start with their worst offering of the season, but the week off will have done them some good and they will run out their best team offering of this season. A deeper look at their form line shows that they have come through a tough draw and for the most part been dam competitive.

The Roosters come off a confidence building flogging of the Knights and have some key players back. But they are not a great away side, especially out of Sydney away games, and are still a 2 from 9 season.

Home underdogs such as the Titans here with +4.5 or longer have a very good record. I think the Titans can cause an upset and win, at home against another team struggling for form and a poor away record the +6.5 is the right play.

Bet 2 unit Titans +6.5 $1.90 Sportsbet



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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