NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 9 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-9.5 Rabbits vs Tigers

+4.5 Eels vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Panthers vs Raiders

-12.5 Roosters vs Knights

-8.5 Eagles vs Cowboys

Even Warriors vs Dragons

+1.5 Titans vs Storm

-1.5 Sharks vs Broncos


NRL Round 9 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Panthers-Raiders Over 40.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Roosters tri > 6.5 $1.36 x Cowboys H2H $1.38 Centrebet / William Hill  BB

Bet 1 unit Titans +4.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Sharks +2.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Betting Notes:

Looks a very tricky week with some line ball match ups, questionable form and then the influence of those already pre selected for the Australia v NZ Test playing this weekend. As you can see from my game handicaps I have 5 of the games rated 3.5 or below so little needs to go wrong either way for it to be very tricky. The other key influence this weekend which is difficult to access but certainly poses question marks is if any of those chosen in advance for the Test have their heads in the wrong space and are not focused on the game in hand (as opposed to escaping injury and looking forward to the coming test match). The Cowboys, Storm, Broncos and Warriors look the most impacted here should there be issue as they have the majority of the two test teams made up across their player lists.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Rabbits, Bulldogs, Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys, Dragons, Storm, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Rabbits vs Tigers

-9.5 Rabbits

Stats

These 2 sides have recorded just 1 win between them from a combined 12 matches over the last 6 weeks and growing speculation about the future of both coaches wouldn’t be helping. The Rabbits have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Tigers who are looking at 7 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2013. To make matters worse, the Tigers are on the road for the 2nd straight week and they have now lost 9 of their last 10 away games after conceding 60 against the Raiders last week. They have a 4-11 ATS record since 2015 as an away side and have covered in only 4 of their last 17 as a road dog. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 8 matches and only once have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. In TMP’s they are 5-3 Over season to date and 5-4 Over in night matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014. In 6 of their 8 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Rabbits have lost 5 of their last 6 and in all 5 losses they have trailed at half time, averaging just 3 1st half points. Their ATS record is 3-5, while they have a 12-15 covering record at ANZ Stadium since 2014. Their TMP results are split 4-4, while they are 13-7 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014 in night matches. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the last 7 encounters.

Preview

A rubbish game I want to stay away from with two sides in losing form (and streaks) and each having questionable respect for their coach and his current methods. The Rabbits should be advantaged here, offering probably their strongest line up for some 6 weeks in particular up front in the forwards. And as we noted last week (vs Raiders), with Woods and Grant missing their opponents just waltzed on through the middle time after time and set a platform up off which to capatilise.

As I expected last week the Rabbits did have a dig for the most part, but realistically were only led by a few key performers (notably Sam Burgess) and then faded when it mattered through the last 20 minutes to end up leaking 30 points (again). I have again heard through recent days that’s its not the happiest of camps and Maguire has certainly not been his warmest self recently, they are hard to pick.

As for the Tigers – well something like that has been coming for weeks and I expected the Raiders would have some fun with them through the middle but we could never have forecast such a poor offering nor a 60 point flogging. They were also disadvantaged by being out of town / away, they now are back in Sydney and clear have some heat and focus on them. There’s no doubt that they are riddled with internal issues, short up front, thin on depth and have some key players playing with injury – very hard to have.

On paper the Rabbits should win but I have no trust for either. The Tigers are looking down the barrel of 7 straight losses early into the first third of the season and such disappointment and soul searching at this early stage of the season can often lead to a significant bounce back performance, underdogs off a loss getting +6.5 have a very good record in the opening weeks of a season and and it wouldn’t take much to have the Rabbits under pressure and self doubt given their own poor recent form.

For mine the game has whiskers on it, hopefully we get something half entertaining and worth watching.


Eels vs Bulldogs

+4.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels recorded only their 2nd win from the last 11 meetings with the Dogs when these sides last met in Round 3. They ran out comprehensive winners that night and have gone on to win 3 of their next 5 since then, while the loss was the start of a win, loss sequence for the Dogs that has now been running for 6 weeks. Both sides have won their last 2 starts at ANZ Stadium and a win for the Eels this week will give them 3 consecutive wins at the venue for the 1st time since 2010. Parramatta is 5-3 ATS and 3-1 when giving up a start, while the Dogs are 3 and 5 with a 2-1 record when getting a start. In TMP’s, both sides favour the Unders, the Dogs producing a 5-3 result, while the Eels are currently 6-2 and 4 of the last 5 clashes have also resulted the same way. It’s taken a few weeks, but the Eels are now aiming plenty of their attack down their left edge, in the 1st 5 Rounds, only 2 of their 11 tries were scored attacking that edge, but in their last 3 matches more than half of their tries have come that way, with Radradra (5) and Jennings (6) topping the try scorer chart for the Eels and the Dogs can expect plenty more traffic to come that way as they have conceded more than half of their tries this season down their right edge defence.

Preview

Note with the Foran out I have updated the game handicap to now be +4.5 Eels

The Foran out is clearly huge, this side were near rudderless in game direction game 1 when he didn’t play and had some significant defensive issues on their right edge that became well exposed. The Eels further problem is that they don’t have the depth to have a suitable player step into this role, with Kelly or Cornish the two obvious replacements but both way out of their depth with what is required. Of greater concern for the Eels now is that this following week probably marks the end of their season as the NRL salary cap breach penalties are mooted to be handed down early next week (timed to coincide with the rep week off) while they will now also have Foran off the scene for an indefinite period. I have no idea how the Eels might respond in this game, but it is hard to see them holding it all together.

The Bulldogs are a nutcase to deal with at present and I have had then listed as a no bet team for the last 4 weeks and nothing changes here. They have stumbled through a win loss win loss form line since the start of the season and are harder to catch than trouble on the streets of Kings Cross. They have moments of quality surrounded by periods of spluttered attack and weak defence, consistently inconsistent. They had the Titans on toast last week with a comfortable margin on a day where there opponent was without their key play maker (Taylor) yet then fell into their complacent mode to leak 12 quick points and all but lose the game.

Bulldogs get their chance, Foran a massive out, the likely play here is total points under but 36 doesn’t leave much room for error and realistically we are dealing with plenty of guess work as to how the Eels aim up and or what offering the Bulldogs put out.


Panthers vs Raiders

-3.5 Panthers

Stats

This will be the 3rd straight week and the 5th game in 6 weeks that the Panthers find themselves on the road. They come into this match with a 3 and 5 record after they were narrowly beaten again last week, giving them 5 single figure losses and taking their tally to 5 for the number of matches they have played in that have been decided by 2 points or less. The Panthers are 6-2 ATS but have failed to cover in the previous 3 clashes with the Raiders, while in TMP’s, they have a 5-3 Under record, with 4 of their last 5 topping out at less than 40 (both of their previous matches ATG have also finished Under). The Raiders should be full of confidence coming into this match after scoring 60 points against the Tigers last week and they have also won the last 3 meetings with the Panthers. This is the 1st of 3 consecutive away games for the Raiders as they play the Dragons and Warriors on the road in the coming weeks. They have the boxed set on the road this season, producing indifferent form with a win, a loss and a draw. They have proved hard to catch ATS, producing a 4-4 result, while in TMP’s, they have been much easier to follow, with a 6-2 result in favour of the Overs. Recent meetings between these sides have been closely fought contests with 7 of the last 9 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the previous 4 clashes have finished Over in TMP’s.

Preview

Note this game is played in Bathurst.

Interesting game played at a neutral venue with both teams mid table, the Panthers 3 and 5 and the Raiders 4, 1 and 3. While the Panthers have only won the 3 games and they have already wrestled with numerous key injury issues their formline is very very strong, close up last week when away to the Sharks, stretched the Cowboys, beat the Broncos and could have or should have won a number of their close losses. The thing that stands out about this list through is where they are headed, it might be 12 months away but they have an arsenal of high quality kids coming through who are being blooded with experience each week now in the top grade and are only just off the pace, gee they are going to be a power into the next few years.

This is not a walk in the park tho. It is now their 5 away game in the last 6 weeks and they have outs with Martin, Blake and Whare but now get McKendry and Segeyaro back. If they can keep their head in attack their ball play and off load game is likely to really trouble the Raiders big men in the middle who lack mobility in defence and can get very flat footed and lazy, and some up speed tempo to this attack and I expect things will open up quite a bit. This is also a nice test for the Raiders, off some very poor offerings they aimed up last week with a comfortable flogging of the Tigers but their opponents laid down and offered very little. If they can get their big men rolling forward again then they to have some attack and points in them but ball control is not their greatest strength.

I favour the Panthers and have them marked an approx try in front, but even with some rain forecast this looks a very open ball play attack lead game with two teams who’ll just want to trade attack punch after attack punch at each other all game. The Raiders have consistently been involved in high scoring games season to date with 6 of their 8 games going over, while typical of what I expect here the last 4 times these two teams have met they have averaged totals of 50 points or more.

Bet 2 units Panthers-Raiders Over 40.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Knights

-12.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Knights and they have also won 9 of the past 10 meetings played at Allianz Stadium. Both sides come into this match with just 1 win from their last 5, with both side recording their solitary wins in Round 6. The Roosters go into this match off back to back losses but have opened as a heaviest favourite of the Round and are at their shortest price of the season after some big names return, while the Knights are again at long odds and have the highest average H2H price at $3.68. The Roosters are 2-6 ATS and a 10-9 covering record since 2014 when giving up a double digit start, while in TMP’s they have a 6-2 Over record, with 5 of their 8 matches topping 40 points and 5 of their last 6 matches at Allianz stadium have also finished the same way. They are still looking for their 1st home win of the season and have now lost their last 4 matches at Allianz Stadium but they haven’t lost 5 in a row at the ground since 2012. They are on a 5 day turn around which hasn’t been a problem in recent seasons as they have won 9 of 11 since 2013. The Knights have lost Mullen and have now used 29 players after 8 Rounds, which is the most of any side. They remain winless on the road, losing 5 from 5, conceding an average of almost 38 points a game as an away side. They have covered a line in only in 1 of 5 away games and have an 11-17 record ATS when on the road since 2014. In TMP’s they are 5-3 Over, while 9 of their last 13 away games have also gone Over. The previous 6 clashes between these sides have been decided by a margin of 13+ and this has also been the margin in 5 of the Knights 6 losses.

Preview

Roosters have key ins and off the back of last weeks defeat and at 1 from 8 just have to win here. The Knights travel poorly and have further key outs, in particular Mullen.

I think the Roosters win and probably win pretty comfortably 13+, but I don’t want to play with a long line start of the 14 to now 16 that’s on offer for a side that has only won the one game. I think the best way to play them is a more conservative position as a leg of an all up.


Eagles vs Cowboys

-8.5 Eagles

Stats

The Cowboys have won the last 3 clashes with the Sea Eagles but wins at Brookvale Oval have been few and far between for the Cowboys, with their last visit to the ground their only win in 10 years. They have won 4 straight to be 6 and 2 after 8 Rounds which has them sitting in 2nd place for the 3rd week in a row, while they are 1 and 2 on the road, opening their away account in their last road trip to Penrith. They are 6-2 ATS, covering the line in their last 6 straight and have a 4-3 covering record since 2015 when giving up a start on the road. In their last 4 wins the Cowboys have averaged 34 points in attack and conceded just 13 in defence. They continue to dominate 2nd halves keeping their record intact as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half with no side scoring more or conceding fewer 2nd half points. They have scored the 1st try in 6 of their 8 matches and in 3 of their last 4 Gavin Cooper has been the 1st try scorer of the match. In 5 of their last 6 the TMP’s have finished Overs and this has also been the result in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles. After 1 of the toughest draws in the opening Rounds the Sea Eagles play their last match off a 5 day prep, at least until Round 21 anyway. After suffering 2 heavy defeats in the opening 2 Rounds, they have now won 4 of their last 6 and have a 3-5 record ATS. They have won only 1 of 4 at Brookvale Oval (1-3 ATS), while all 4 of their home games have finished Unders in TMP’s and in all 4 they have conceded the 1st points of the match.

Preview

Expect key outs for the Eagles and they significant at the back. They come off a win but were troubled for most of the way by the Knights and only the quality kicking game of Cherry-Evans proved the difference. Once again they were loose through the middle up against a young pack, they mean one of the best forward offerings in the comp here. Cowboys have been the benchmark, they continue to play week in week out with no key injuries or disruptions and should have too much muscle and size through the middle to then play off and dominate.

The one risk here is that the Cowboys have a long list of quality players already selected in the Test teams and so might not put their foot right to the floor here if not necessary. Think teh best way to play this is anchor them to win.


Warriors vs Dragons

Even

Stats

History shows the Dragons have dominated the Warriors, winning 19 of the 23 clashes since 1999, including winning the last 11 matches straight, with the Warriors only victory since 2004 coming in 2007. The Warriors were embarrassing in their 42 point loss to the Storm last week and they have lost 6 of their last 9 matches in the week following a game where they have conceded 30 or more points. They are 3-5 ATS and 10-12 covering at Mt Smart Stadium since 2014, while they are 10-10 when giving up a start over the last 2 seasons. They are 6-2 Over with their last 5 straight resulting that way and they are 9-5 Over at Mt Smart since 2015. They have conceded the 1st try in 6 of their 8 matches and they have conceded the last try in 7 of 8. The Dragons are coming off back to back wins and are looking for 3 straight victories for the 1st time in 12 months. They are 4-4 ATS with a 7-1 TMP record in favour of the Unders. This will be the final game of the season for the Dragons where they will have to leave NSW and in distant away games they are 4-8 H2H, 6-6 ATS and 7-5 Under over the last 3 seasons. In 4 of their 8 matches they have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal and in 6 of their last 7 they have failed to score a 2nd half try. In a match featuring the team with the worst record in attack, versing the team ranked 2nd last in defence it’s hard to pick a winner.

Preview

The less said the better here. The Warriors got me last week, I fell in to thinking that coming off a quality effort they could actually put another one in yet what they then dished up was insipid rubbish, as low and completely disinterested an NRL offering as I can remember. Now coach McFadden has finally decided if he is going to get the bullet then he’ll go on his terms and has dropped 6 players in addition to the two further key injury outs that they have – this is stuff he should have done 12 months ago.

The Dragons were handed their win on a platter last week with the leg up of 8 first half handing errors that the Roosters offered them, and their 4 wins season to date have all been against sides at the bottom of the table. They have a very an amazing head to head record vs the Warriors winning the last 11 games straight, their defensive structures should be their mainstay and advantage here.

The markets have been all over the place with some wild swings given the the little understanding that any of us have of what Warriors line up is named, let alone what they then offer. Dragons to win but an ugly game to consider.


Titans vs Storm

+1.5 Titans

Stats

Storm has won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Titans, including 3 of the previous 4 clashes at CBus Stadium. They have won 3 of their last 4 and are 2 and 1 on the road. Their record ATS is currently 3-5 and they are 6-8 covering as a road favourite over the last 2 seasons. They are 6-2 Under in TMP’s and 19-9 Under as an away side since 2014. In 6 of their 8 games a Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play which includes their 3 previous away games and they have also crossed 1st in their last 5 trips to the Coast. It’s a milestone match for Craig Bellamy as it will be his 350th match as an NRL Coach and he has a habit of getting his side “up” in milestone matches, although he wouldn’t be fussing over himself. The Titans have lost 4 in a row, while their last 6 matches have all been decided by single figures. They are 6-2 ATS (equal best in the comp) and have also covered the line in 6 of their last 7 at home, as well as winning 5 of their last 7 at home. They are 5-3 in favour of the Overs and the last 5 meetings with the Storm have topped 44 or more. The Titans have been notoriously slow starters, conceding the 1st try in 6 of their last 7. Only 1 home side has been beaten this year from 7 matches when Chris James has been in charge and all 7 have finished Overs in TMP’s.

Preview

Very interesting game and I think the Titans will give this a real shake. Firstly lets put the Storm’s big win last week into perspective, the Warriors laid down and clearly were pathetic, and as noted last week the Storm’s form prior to that win in my opinion is very thin (Tigers, Knights). It’s my understanding they have picked up further key injuries and have had limited training and it’s been behind closed doors this week as they try to piece together a combination for this game, including the likely loss of their three players on their left edge. They also have approx. 6 players picked for the Test next week and off the back of a supposed big win (and thin form) have to be a major risk.

I expect Taylor will be back here for the Titans, a key in as this kids performances to date have been excellent. They again stretched their opponent last week, on the road and into a golden point shoot out, back at home in likely wet and damp conditions they will fancy themselves here. They have a no mane forward line up that has some size and annoyance in them, Bird, Taylor and Roberts can create things in attack and a very astute coach who will have worked a game plan to play the Storm in and around the ruck and then look to open things up down the edges.

Also, the Storm have failed to cover their last six on the road as a favourite while they are 4-9 ATS since 2013 as a road favourite spotting more than 4 points.

I give the Titans a huge chance of the upset, I’m tipping they can win and the plus line start we took early is a nice position.

Bet 1 unit Titans +4.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Sharks vs Broncos

-1.5 Sharks

Stats

Both sides are in form with each of them going undefeated in their last 5 matches. The Sharks have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with Brisbane but its been 7 years since the Sharks last beat the Broncos at Shark Park, with Brisbane winning the previous 3 clashes at the ground. For the 1st time this season the Broncos will be without the services of both Adam Blair and Andrew McCullough, while Alex Glenn returns after missing last week, while the Sharks have named an unchanged line up. Brisbane sit at the top of the ladder for the 4th consecutive week and haven’t been positioned lower than 5th, they are ranked 2nd in attack and 1st in defence, conceding only 1 try from their last 3 matches. Only once this season have they conceded more than 20 points in a game and only once have they not scored more than 20. They are 5-3 ATS and are 4-5 on the road since 2015 when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are currently 5-3 Under and 17-11 Under since 2014 as an away side. They have opened the scoring in all 8 matches (5 tries and 3 penalty goals) and have scored the 1st try of the match in all 8 Rounds. They have conceded just 36 1st half points at an average of 4.5 and only once have they conceded more than 1 1st half try. For the 3rd week in a row the Sharks find themselves in the Top 4 and they are currently 1-1 against sides above them on the ladder. They are ranked 4th in attack and 5th in defence and are yet to be beaten at home this season, winning 4 from 4. Their record ATS is currently 5-3 and they have a 6-7 covering record as a home underdog since 2014. In TMP’s, the Sharks are currently 5-3 Under and have an 11-6 Under record at home since 2015. Ben Barba has scored 5 tries this season and on 4 occasions he has been the sharks 1st try scorer. With both sides strong defensive records points are likely to be at a premium so the Under 36 points total looks a likely outcome.

Preview

The game of the round saved up to last billing. Sunday afternoon at Shark Park, but likely dam and wet conditions which should well further suit the Sharks forward focused and physical play.

I have no knock for the Broncos, they keep ticking over nicely, but this will be a good test for them. An away game that is not on a Friday, into a tough venue against a side also on a winning streak and some sound form. Importantly they have two major outs who both normally play very key roles, McCullough their #9 and Blair their forward and middle enforcer. They also have a further 6 players now named for the Test match who run the risk of maybe not being completely on their game. Milford has been nothing short of outstanding through recent weeks but I expect he might not get the same room and latitude to play here, and he and Hunt will be tested and spotted physically far more than they have been for the last 6 weeks.

The Sharks have developed a nice balance, strong physical forward pack, clever #9 who now gives them some quality direction and options, a sharp #6 who offers an excellent kicking game as well as attacking and ball play and some outside backs who can compliment and finish the work done inside them. This is a nice test, the Broncos sit atop of the table for a reason, this game will tell us a lot about both and where their seasons are headed.

I think the Sharks might just have a couple of things in their favour and get the chance to get the Broncos on the right week. Two key outs, dam conditions, tough physical arm wrestle, I’m with teh Sharks in what looks a rippa game.

Bet 2 units Sharks +2.0 $1.90 Sportsbet


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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