NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 7 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+4.5 Eagles vs Eels

-11.5 Cowboys vs Rabbits

-2.5 Titans vs Dragons

Even Bulldogs vs Warriors

-25.5 Broncos v Knights

-2.5 Raiders v Sharks

+4.5 Tigers vs Storm

+4.5 Roosters vs Panthers


NRL Round 7 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Eels H2H $1.80 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys H2H $1.30 x Broncos >6.5 $1.30  BB

Bet 2 units Storm H2H $1.67 William Hill

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Cowboys, Dragons, Bulldogs, Broncos, Raiders Sharks, Storm, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Eagles vs Eel

+4.5 Eagles

Stats

Great way to kick off Round 7 when the Sea Eagles take on the Eels in 1 of only 2 matches this Round featuring 2 last start winners. The Eels have recorded 3 consecutive victories over the Sea Eagles and another win this week will be just the 2nd time in 50 years that they have won 4 in a row over their arch rivals. Both sides are coming off wins and both sides are on 5 day turnarounds, the Eels have won 4 from 7 and Manly 8 from 13 when they have had a short back up since 2013. The Sea Eagles do have the home ground advantage, where they have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Eels, who are yet to be defeated this season as the away side. The Sea Eagles have failed to cover a line in the last 4 clashes with Parramatta and they have also failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 matches at Brookvale Oval. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Eels at Brookvale Oval, but they have conceded the 1st try in their last 5 at home. Manly have a 5-1 Under TMP record from their past 6 at home, while the Eels are 5-1 Under after 6 Rounds and with 3 of the last 4 clashes finishing the same way, the total points going under 35.5 looks a likely outcome. In 9 of the 11 Thursday/Friday night games this season, 9 have gone Under with 8 totaling less than 35.5, while matches refereed by Ben Cummins have gone 5-1 Under and 5-0 at night.

Preview

If true to form then there does look a gap here in the Eels favour. While coming through some strong form games including Broncos, Cowboys and others they have also had a pretty soft run through the first 6 rounds with them yet to have to leave Sydney for any game. Their opponents have all but been bent over with this their 3rd x 5 day turn around of their last 4 games and a return leg from NZ with just the one light training session prior to play.

The Eagles have been plucky through the last few weeks but gee there has to be some question marks over the quality and depth of what they have been up against, an ordinary and complacent Warriors who had only beaten the bottom two teams on the table, Rabbits which after last week doesn’t read well, near loss to 16th placed Roosters and still without instrumental play maker Cherry-Evans. While Koroisau has done the job through the last two weeks he faces a very different task here against a well structured defence that will also play very physical. Brookvale has long been a fortress for this side but right now they have lost 6 of their last 10.

The Eels won very well last week but gee the Raiders were soft and ordinary, but none the less a good confidence building win and importantly Foran ran far more freely and had an excellent game. Against his old club, back on their home track I’n sure he will be primed for a big effort. The thing that continues to stand out with the Eels is the quality of their defence, and how well structure it is, 11 points against after 6 weeks through a pretty strong form line is a very good effort, it’s the sort of stuff that takes teams to the top 4.

I think there is a gap here, it may well be a tight game for some time as what points the Eagles have in them against a good defensive offering will be questionable, but I like the Eels here.

Bet 2 units Eels H2H  $1.80 Luxbet


Cowboys vs Rabbits

-11.5 Cowboys

Stats

The Cowboys have won 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs, their only loss was in the most recent meeting, when the Rabbits secured their 1st win in Townsville in 7 years. The Rabbits have now lost 3 of their last 4 and have averaged less than 12 points a game during that time and they will be pleased to have Adam Reynolds back in the fold as he makes a welcome return after spending 5 weeks on the sideline. They are currently ranked 5th in attack and 8 th in defence and have lost 4 of their last 5 as a road dog. They have had Overs results in 11 of their last 14 away games and have covered a line in only 7 of 16 on the road since 2015. The Cowboys are undefeated at home, winning 3 from 3 and in their last 2 they have scored 76 points and conceded nil. In all 3 home games they have scored both the 1st and last try of the match and a Cowboys try has also been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs in Townsville. There have been 42 points or more scored in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Rabbits at 1300SMILES Stadium and 9 of the Cowboys last 13 matches at home have finished Overs. They have covered a line in their last 4 and in 4 of their last 5 at home. The Cowboys are ranked 1st in attack and 3rd in defence and no side has scored more or conceded fewer tries than the Cowboys.

Preview

Two sides at either end of the form spectrum at present. The Rabbits hurt us weekend with another very ordinary offering, certainly Reynolds late exclusion didn’t help but regardless their attitude, enthusiasm and offering was very poor against a busted team sitting at the bottom of the table. I have now noticed that there have been 3 recent games (Bulldogs, Eagles and Roosters) where Maguire has had no positive influence at half time, once one of his strengths as a coach. We have still only seen 6 games, and they desperately need Reynolds back but right now their form and attitude raises many questions.

Most seasons there becomes a team that starts to stand out as generally very consistent, are winners, have some quality and most of the right ingredients to go on and compete at the pointy end of the season, and are the right team more often than not to hitch your wagon to as a betting main stay. Last year it was the Broncos, the year prior the Rabbits, the year prior the Roosters, right now the Cowboys certainly fit the bill. They have won 4 of 6 but notably their two losses were by 4 points and then 1 point (which arguably they should have won); they showed nothing but class and quality to come back and win last week on the road, a very professional win. I have improved their rating on where they started the year, and it’s certainly much higher then where they finished the last year and although the history books tell us that there have been no repeat Premiers in the modern age right now this side is the benchmark and have nothing but improved. Confidence, belief, competition for places with good quality depth, some smart juniors pushing for places and a sharp coach are all good ingredients that could well see them be the first side to go back-to-back in some time.

The Cowboys right now are ranked 1st in attack and 3rd in defence, record at home speaks for itself while the Rabbits have only won 1 of their last 7 trips north that being a surprise upset win last season. With Reynolds inclusion and the quality of his kicking game and general game management the Rabbits should at least play with improved field position but gee I want to watch and see where their attitude is especially from the 30 minute mark onwards when it’s time to really roll your sleeves up. I’m happy to look to just play the Cowboys at the match line H2H to win, they come off a tough away leg last week and on paper the 12 point line looks about right.


Titans vs Dragons

-2.5 Titans

Stats

It’s the 3rd week in a row that the Dragons play away from home and it’s the final leg of their Qld road trip where they have conceded 62 points and are yet to register a point of their own after being held to nil by both the Cowboys and Broncos. They have registered twice as many wins as the Titans head to head, but the spoils have been shared equally in last 10 meetings with each side recording 5 wins. Recent meetings have been tight and low scoring affairs, with 4 of the last 5 clashes decided by 2 points or less, while 4 of the last 5 have finished Unders in TMP’s. A Dragons try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 5 clashes with the Titans, who have also conceded the 1st try in their last 5, while the Titans have scored the last try of the match in the previous 7 clashes. Only once from the last 10 encounters have the Titans led the Dragons at half time and they have also led at half time just once this season. The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 at home and have covered a line in 5 of 6 in 2016 (ranked 1st in covering the line), as well as in their last 6 at home and 12 of their last 17 at home long term, while they have had Unders results in 5 of their last 6 day time matches played at home. The Dragons are ranked 9th in defence and last in attack are still looking for their 1st away win with a current 0-4 record on the road. They have covered a line in only 1 of their last 5 and their TMP results are in heavy favour of the Unders, with a 13-4 Under record since 2015 and they are a perfect 6-0 Under record in 2016, with all of their matches totaling 36 points or less.

Preview

Looks a very important game for the Dragons here. They have been rubbish for weeks, in fact have conceded 62 points to zero through their last two games but have come through the top two teams on the table in consecutive weeks. In my opinion there’s a lot of rubbish being written and said about why they are losing and much of it focused at key players, for mine the real focus should be on their coach. It’s his playbook that they are playing to, his patterns of play, his sterile structures, and he has had two and half years digging this hole. Of the 16 coaches in this comp each year we always have a few innovators, leaders, guys with a fair idea of what is required, then we have many sheep who tread water season after season copying what they think is current and in vogue and hoping a mid table position for another season is enough to keep them in the job. McGreggor has shown he has little idea about attack, how to create second phase play, set up attacking options with an intent to open a hole, create defensive errors or confusion, and overlap or a man in behind the line. The Dragons are in this mess right now due to where they have been led.

But. This game looks like a mini grand final for them. Off two thin wins and 4 defeats with the last two being sound thrashings they have had an 8 day turn around and spent much of the week back their home training center with significant focus on them. Right now they need to dig deep and somehow find or manufacture a win.

The Titans have been very honest, and it they get to play a little bit of footy here then they will be difficult to beat, especially if they can jump the scoreboard. Bird is a major out, while Taylor has been carrying a leg injury, key issues with two of their key players. If given a little latitude they can open things up and right now there is absolutely no expectation on them.

Trick game. Going with the Dragons desperation, as it’s hard to justify a great deal about their play. Marshall may well be stung into some action with his return, just playing direct would be a good start. There are many tight tricky games this round, this is certainly one of them and happy to just watch.


Bulldogs vs Warriors

Even Bulldogs

Wellington NZ

Stats

The Bulldogs travel to Wellington for a home game when they take on the Warriors at Westpac Stadium in game 2 of Super Saturday. The Dogs have made a habit of making a home away from home and in recent seasons it’s proved to be a fruitful exercise as they have won their last 3 matches played at a neutral venue. They also have a very good record at Westpac Stadium against the Warriors, who are yet to defeat them at the ground. In fact, the Warriors have only ever recorded 1 victory from 8 starts at the venue dating back to 2001. The Bulldogs are coming off a solid performance against the Storm in what was clearly their best effort of the season. They are on a short 5 day preparation but that hasn’t been a problem for them in recent seasons as they have won 4 of their last 5 off the 5 day turn around. They have won the last 5 meetings with the Warriors and 4 of those 5 matches have been played in New Zealand. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in the last 4 clashes and in all 4 meetings, the TMP’s finished Unders. The Dogs currently sit 5th on the ladder and are ranked 9th in attack and 4th in defence, with only the Cowboys and Eels conceding fewer tries. Since 2014 the Dogs are 14-9 ATS when getting a start and they have a 4-2 covering record off a 5 day break over the same period. They are yet again proving to be an Unders side in 2016, producing a 5-1 result after 6 Rounds and only once since 2011 have they finished a season in favour of the Overs. What to make of the Warriors, after 2 wins they again crumbled under the weight of expectation and as indicated last week, the form line from those 2 wins was thin. They have lost 6 of their last 7 as an away side but they get their chance here, having to deal with very little travel in the last month. They have scored the 1st try in the last 4 clashes with the Bulldogs but only once this season have they been able to open the scoring. They are 2-4 ATS this season and have 5-6 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start, they have had overs result in 4 of 6 with only 2 of their matches finishing under 40.

Preview

The Bulldogs actually have a significantly better record in Wellington than the Warriors having won 3 plus a draw from their 4 games here, while the Warriors have only won 1 of their 8 games at the ground. The Bulldogs likely to lose Tolman and have a short 5 day turn around out of an away game in Melbourne but they do have a good record with such winning 4 of their last 5 on 5 day turn arounds much to the professionalism that is the Bulldogs approach under Hasler.

Aside from the Eels game the Bulldogs defence season to date has been very good and last Monday’s effort and win yet another example. They scramble very well, have a tight sound line  and give you very little, and it takes you a long way in most games. Although winning they still have issues with their attack, their first two tries coming with some luck via kick plays. What also works in the Bulldogs favour in this game scenario is their general discipline, they don’t give you a lot and are happy to wind the game into a bit of an arm wrestle which is likely to frustrate the Warriors.

Got the Warriors right last week, off two wins, favs, back home, complacency and shite attitude sets in and they never in the hunt and leak 34 points to a side who can’t but a try. The culture and approach of this playing group is pathetic and as I have said before you wouldn’t trust them to help you cross the road. Lolohea who is a huge talent moves to 6, but has some defensive issues, I’d play Leuluai at 6 and move Lolohea to centre but I think half the team selections are done by ballot with this mob. The thing about the Warriors that will keep a tired Bulldogs in this game and most likely give them the leg up to victory is that they make so many basic errors they just invite defeat.

I’m with the Bulldogs but them have numerous issues to overcome to leave this alone for any betting interest.


Broncos v Knights

-25.5 Broncos

Stats

The 2nd match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Knights on the road for the 5th time in 7 matches. Since 2011, the Broncos have dominated Newcastle, with the Knights registering just 1 win during that time. The Broncos last 7 wins over the Knights have all been by a margin of 13+ and this has also been the result in 3 of Brisbane’s 5 wins this season. A Brisbane try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Knights, while the Broncos remain the only side to have opened the scoring in all 6 Rounds in 2016 (4 tries & 2 Penalty Goals). Brisbane has led at half time in 9 of the previous 10 meetings with Newcastle and they remain the only side yet to trail at the break in this season. They are ranked 4th in attack and 2nd in defence which has them sitting on top of the table with 5 wins. They have won 14 of their last 16 at Suncorp Stadium and covered the line in 12 of those, while they have also won 16 of their last 18 at home when starting as a favourite and they start this match as the shortest price favourite of the season. Milford and Oates have each been the FTS in the last 2 clashes with the Knights and both have already bagged doubles as FTS in 2016. The Knights registered their 1st win last week but it’s hard to see them going back to back, they have lost their previous 4 away games and have covered a line in only 5 of 16 since 2015 as an away side, they have also failed to cover in the previous 4 clashes with the Broncos. They have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their 6 matches and after 6 Rounds no side has conceded more tries than the Knights.

Preview

The Broncos win, the question is how you might chose to play this. And while I expect they can cover a line of 18 I just don’t want to be playing with such risk this early in the season. I think the best way through the game is as suggested with more conservative plays through the tri bet or 13 plus options.


Raiders v Sharks

-2.5 Raiders

Stats

Home ground advantage has meant little when these sides have met in recent seasons with the away side winning 6 of the last 8 clashes. There has been little between these sides since 2011, with both sides recording 5 wins and only once from the last 10 encounters has the side leading at half time been run down. There have also been plenty of points on offer in recent meetings, with 8 of the last 9 topping 40 or more points. The Raiders are 2-1 at home, while the Sharks are 1-2 away. Canberra has a 4-2 Over – Under record, while the Sharks are the opposite, with a 4-2 Under – Over record. The Raiders have won only 1 of their last 4 and have conceded 20 or more points in 5 of 6 at an average of 22. They are coming off their biggest loss of the season after conceding 36 points against the Eels and they have lost 8 of their last 10 the week after conceding more than 30 points. They have a 4-7 ATS record since 2015 when giving up a start at home and they have won only 4 of their last 11 as a home favourite. The Sharks have won 3 in a row to and sit in 4th position, while they are ranked 7th in both attack and defence. They have a 12-14 ATS record since 2014 as a road dog and both of their losses this season have been as the away underdog. A Sharks try has been the 1 st scoring play in 9 of the last 11 clashes with the Raiders.

Preview

With the late confirmation yesterday afternoon that Austin is now out and there remains doubt over Vaughan & Hodgson (or they play with injury) on top of already missing Soliola and Lima I am now tipping the Sharks but will stay out of the game.

Raiders put their first poor effort in last week when thumped by the Eels, and the Raiders certainly rolled over, never in the contest and conceding very soft yardage and points. They’d come off a major away win and clearly with hindsight a major build up and then crashed with the obvious let down. I expect they will re group and be  better here back at home but certainly with these key outs and or injury issues lets just watch and see what’s on offer.

The Sharks are ticking over ok, their record in Canberra and against the Raiders is ok and while missing Lewis they will have Maloney back and his kicking game will be integral to how they play this. With Austin out I think this now looks an even handicap, but with the Sharks off 3 wins but no stand out form (last two vs Titans, Tigers) while conceding plenty of soft points) this is not a game I want to play with.


Tigers vs Storm

+4.5 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers have won 5 of their last 7 games at Leichardt Oval against the Storm, but they come into this match as an outsider after 4 straight losses. Their recent record at Leichardt is also poor, with just 4 wins from their last 10 at the ground. Points have been hard to come by for both sides with a TMP average of 30 from the last 10 meetings, with 8 of the last 10 clashes finishing Unders and this has also been the result in 18 of the Storm’s past 22 matches played away from AAMI Park. Both sides have had 1-12 margin outcomes in their last 4 matches but the previous 5 clashes have been decided by a margin of 13+ and that has also been the margin result in the Tigers last 9 matches at Leichardt Oval. The Tigers are 10-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2014, while overall, the home underdog has a 48-18 covering record in the 1st 8 Rounds since 2014. Melbourne has a 6-7 ATS record since 2014 as a road favourite and they have covered in only 1 of 5 this season when giving up a start. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 6 clashes with the Tigers played at Leichardt Oval.

Preview

The Tigers certainly fit the bill of early season desperation and bounce back here off the back of 4 losses and a return to what should be a traditional home ground of advantage in Leichhardt (but surprisingly they have only won 4 of their last 10 here). They do have a major out in Woods who provided much of their go forward and middle work rate and given stand out depth is not a major positive for this list the loss of any such player certainly hurts their chances. They come out of a terrible form game and loss last week to the 15th placed side, a game riddled with 22 errors and winning form from the Knights unlikely to look to have much depth in Brisbane on Saturday night.

The Tigers problem clearly is that they play the same way all game long and have no playbook guidance toward getting into a game, building pressure, capatilising on opportunity and working the game over all the way through to the 80th minute mark. As stated previously I have little time for the coach and I can’t believe that he was prepared to change his approach during the off season, then spend months coaching a revised plan, and is now making noises that he wants to tighten things up and revert more to his past approach. For fark sake who is in charge here? Set a plan, ensure it is sound, and coach it through the good and the bad. Taylor’s problem is he wants to be liked and keep his job, and that gets in the way of sound coaching.

The Storm’s attack has lacked fluency and combination, they should have scored at least 3 more tries last Monday night yet right now they no longer have that final punch to do so. Chalmers is a key out, and they are already short on quality outside backs, so they again will have some major reshuffles to do.

I am hearing that the Tigers have a number of key injury issues which may lead to further late outs, in addition to Woods which would explain the further move on the line. On a likely wet track the kicking game and game management of the Storm should be the difference, I want to just stick with them to win and leave any line out of the equation.

Bet 2 units Storm H2H $1.67 William Hill


Roosters vs Panthers

+4.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Panthers and 6 of the previous 8 encounters played at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers are coming of yet another single figure loss, while the Roosters broke their duck when they defeated the Rabbits in FNF. The Roosters still have plenty of work to do as they remain in last place, they are ranked 14th in attack and 15th in defence. They are yet to register a home win and are 2-4 ATS. In TMP’s they are 5-1 in favour of the Overs, with only 1 of their matches totaling less than the mark of 36.5 set for this match. Shaun Kenny-Dowall has scored 4 tries in his last 3 matches against the Panthers and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in the last 2 meetings. The Panthers have had 1-12 margin results in all 6 of their matches, with their last 5 decided by 5 points or less. Despite winning only 2 of their 6 matches, the Panthers have covered a line in 4 of 6, while they have a 3-3 record since 2014 when covering as a road favourite. They have had Unders results in 24 of their last 34 night games, while the under has hit in the last 4 games of MNF. In MNF, the Roosters have won 8 of their last 9, while the Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 Monday fixtures.

Preview

The Panthers come out of a strong form game last week against the Cowboys where they offered their best yet, and had it been against anyone else then they’d have most likely won. Moylan has been an excellent influence since his return, and notably lifted everyone’s confidence and combinations. That alone should be the right form to win this.

The trick is that the Panthers have a very poor recent record vs the Roosters (lost 5 of last 6), and an equally poor record when against them at SFS (lost 6 of last 8). These sorts of hoodoo’s more often than not seem to come into play in games such as this.

The Roosters are still limping along and after the Cowboys thumping of the Rabbits their win last week still doesn’t read strongly, now does much of the form prior to it. I would also not be surprised that with the return of key players today week for the Anzac Day clash that they are likely to have their heads more into next week than this.

I expect the Panthers win, if the game was anywhere else than the SFS I would probably entertain a play as I think that recent form line is just too strong but given the recent history between these two and that I have the handicap marked similar to the market I’m happy to pass.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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