NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 2 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+3.5 Panthers vs Bulldogs

-12.5 Broncos vs Warriors

-1.5 Raiders vs Roosters

-14.5 Rabbits vs Knights

Even Eels vs Cowboys

-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-18.5 Storm vs Titans

+7.5 Tigers vs Eagles


NRL Round 2 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet

Bet 2 units Broncos H2H $1.32 x Rabbits H2H $1.32 x Storm >6.5 $1.35  Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet

 

NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

I have this marked -14.5 as a minimum, Cowboys return home off a loss, Roosters face back to back away games this a distant travel, were touched up by Rabbits and should never have lost to Raiders.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Broncos, Roosters, Rabbits, Eels, Sharks, Storm, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Panthers vs Bulldogs

+3.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers have a healthy record over the Dogs when playing at home, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes played at Pepper Stadium. Recent meetings have been tight affairs with 6 of the last 7 clashes decided by a single figure margin, while only twice in the last 8 meetings have the Panthers trailed the Bulldogs at half time. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 9 of the last 10 clashes, while 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished Unders in TMP’s. In the last 7 clashes the Panthers have been unable to outscore the Bulldogs in the 2nd half, with the Bulldogs outscoring Penrith 100 – 48. The Panthers are off the back of a 5 day preparation and their record on a short turnaround is not positive, with a 5-8 result since 2012. A win to the Dogs will be the 1 st time since 2012 that they have been able to register wins in the opening 2 weeks of the competition.

Preview

It’s game 2 and I’m happy to remain cautious here, but a) if I was to speculate at double figure odds a team to challenge the top few this year then right now it would be the Bulldogs, and b) but for the fact this is a milestone 50th Anniversary game for the club I’d be very happy to take the Panthers on.

I caught up with a close contact during the last week who is close to the action at the Bulldogs. Late last season Hasler did a massive overhaul of their fitness staff including the appointment of his number one man from his time at Brookvale, all of which has led to a major shake up to their fitness and conditioning approach. It’s common news that they have dropped weight off many of their big men, but my understanding is they have also significantly changed and tweaked their aerobic fitness. Hasler has an approach which I love, size, muscle, power through the middle, a 9 man forward assault, give it to them, give it to them and then just give it to them some more! Having stripped some excess carriage off his big boys, improved their mobility and endurance we then saw some pretty ominous signs last week as to where they might be headed this season as they trampled the Eagles through the middle of the park. Better still they add Klemmer to their list for this week! Off a dam nice win, weak opponent offering and their first big physical hit out they might have some risk of let down, so I want to see what we get second up.

Long term readers would know I am no rap for Griffin as a coach at this level, and am staggered that he has got a gig again and for the recent love affair that Gould has had for him. It will be short lived. He was lucky enough to have Lockyer prop him up for a couple of yrs when he first stepped in at the Broncos, has next to zero idea how to coach attack and I am yet again convinced they will struggle through this season. Their attack last Saturday was putrid, what the hell they have been doing through their ball work sessions across the last 3 months I’ll give up, terrible structure, patterns of play, no idea how to set their sets of 6 up in the final 30 mtrs to play set plays with an intention to create a hole, an overlap, move defenders to advantage or puncture the line. But we’ve seen this all before. And my mail through recent days is that they are to have only one formal ball work session this week.. I spent time under two first grade coaches who knew how to coach attack and we did a minimum of 3 to 4 quality sessions a week, not so as to robot them, but such that they were will drilled, knew what to do and how to react under pressure and in certain parts of the field, and were well armed with set plays and sets of 6 that had attack and points as the focus.

I want to look at the Panthers again, plus it’s a major milestone game for the club that will have all the trappings of old boys weekend, history, tradition and alike and so the players may well pull a major effort out. But I was nothing but impressed with the Bulldogs last week, it wasn’t the winning, it was the how.


Broncos vs Warriors

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

After 3 consecutive losses to the Warriors, the Broncos have won the 2 most recent clashes and a win this week will make it 3 straight victories over the Warriors for the 1st time since 2000. Brisbane have the benefit of an 8 day preparation and a bumper crowd for their 1st home game of the season, while the Warriors are on the road for the 2nd week in a row and have lost 4 of their last 5 at the ground. In 6 of the last 7 clashes (including the last 4 straight) the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, while 3 of the last 4 meetings played at Suncorp Stadium have totaled 50 points or more. The away side has scored the opening try of the match in 4 of the last 5 clashes, while the team to score the 1st try has gone on to win 8 of the last 10 match ups. The Broncos have won 9 of their last 10 Friday night matches at Suncorp Stadium and they have also scored the opening try in 9 of those, while they have covered the line in 8 of the 10. The Warriors have now lost 9 in a row, conceding an average of 32 points a game, which includes their last 5 away games.

Preview

Again, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then its a bloody duck!! I have said for months the Warriors are gone, left them out of my top 8 and only saw all the reasons why again on show last weekend. The joint is a rabble, has been for many years and again they will waste another year as non performers. I have no doubt (and nor does he) that the coach will be sacked through the coming weeks and the next cycle of drama and alike will all start again.

I keep reminding myself that it’s round 2, they may respond for a week and Bennett is just focusing on his defensive structures right now, but if the Broncos are half serious and do want to play with the ball they could open this right up as the Warriors response will be meek under any sort of sustained pressure.


Raiders vs Roosters

-1.5 Raiders

Stats

The Roosters have won the last 3 clashes with the Raiders but those 3 wins were all with the home ground advantage, their record at GIO Stadium isn’t quite as attractive, with only 2 wins from their last 8 visits to the ground. Another loss this week will make it just the 2nd time in more than 20 years that the Roosters have lost their opening 2 games of a season, while a win for the Raiders will give them 2 wins to open a season for the 1st time since 2005. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 10 matches against the Raiders, who have conceded the 1st try in 6 of their previous 9 at home. The Raiders halves had a hand in 4 of their 5 tries last week and with both of them now missing for an extended period, the Raiders will find things very difficult.

Preview

Likely another hot Saturday afternoon game. I have penalised (handicap) the Raiders heavily with the loss of their two halves, major outs then duplicated with them both being injured, that has to put a massive hole in their attack abilities, combinations, kicking game and leadership. The Roosters come off an embarrassing offering first up leaking 42 points, they have a similar list and I’m sure Robinson has been all over hem like a rash this week getting their attitude and heads right to be aiming up here, but they still lack class and experience in key roles in particular in the halves.

A very tricky game to try and line up given the key outs. I’m cutting the Roosters some slack to improve with some bounce back for round 2 off such a poor offering, and they get their chance with such key outs for the Raiders. The home side also have to be very suss into the second half off such a punishing game in the heat last week. All the stats suggest this is an open attacking game with lots of points and a likely total points over bet, but I am staying out given some many key attack play makers are not playing (Austin, Sezer, Pearce).


Rabbits vs Knights

-14.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbitohs have a dominant recent record over the Knights, recording 5 consecutive wins and they have outscored their opponent 102 points to 16 from the last 2 encounters. It’s their 1st game of the season at ANZ Stadium, where they won 7 of 10 in season 2015, but covered a line in only 3 of those. They conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of 10 at the ground last year, while 7 of the 10 matches finished Unders in TMP’s. They have a couple of key outs in Sutton & Reynolds, while they welcome back Keary looks set to return. The Knights find themselves away from home for the 2nd week in a row after being soundly beaten by a side that ranked 14th in attack in 2015. They won only 4 of 12 on the road last year and 8 of their last 9 losses have been by a margin of 13+.

Preview

Very hard to see how the Knights compete here and they face back to back away / travel games. Rabbits have a key loss in Reynolds who was outstanding last week but they get a suitable replacement in Keary, plus they get George Burgess into their forward line up.

Not a lot to be said here, Rabbits have an excellent long term record here at home, and have won their last 5 straight over the Knights. I have the Rabbits rated at present somewhere around 3rd spot and the Knights bottom two and they come off a poor loss to another bottom table side first up leaking 30 points. I have the Rabbits 12 to 16 point winners.

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet


Eels vs Cowboys

Even

Stats

The Cowboys have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Eels, including their last effort at Pirtek Stadium when they overcame a 24 point deficit, scoring 30 points in 25 minutes. The Cowboys have dominated the Eels in the 2 nd halves in recent matches, scoring a combined total of 100 points to 10 from the last 4 clashes. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in the last 6 clashes, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in the previous 7 meetings. The Cowboys 1st away game of the season and they will be looking to continue on their winning way as an away side after a record breaking 9 wins on the road after 26 Rounds in 2015, they also won 7 of 8 in Sydney which equals the amount of wins that they had achieved in Sydney over the previous 3 seasons combined. It’s a different story for Parramatta who has now lost 7 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium, while they have conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 at the ground.

Preview

As suggested last week I have nothing but respect for the Cowboys and am not looking to deliberately lay them week after week but into this match up and at this ground I expect this to be close and the Eels a significant chance of winning.

The Cowboys were back in the groove last week, a nice tough arm wrestle, they had enough when it mattered and their defence was sound. Having now knocked up that round one home victory they head to a ground that their long term record at is very poor, and a big physical opponent who also come through a strong form reference and have key ins. The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 8 games at this ground, it should be 7 of 8 as they were down by 30 here last season and turned on an amazing late escape. They have confidence and solid combination, no doubt, but for what ever reason this ground has often made them look poor. Unlike last year they will now face an Eels line up at full strength.

Foran is a major in, plus Norman will be back who was a major loss in the first half last week. I liked a lot of what I saw from the Eels, in particular their attack set up and structures, they are prepared to ask questions and play with the ball and have an off load game in the middle that is going to open many sides up. They have a significant long term record as a home underdog (72% off a long sample) and will be keen to get themselves a major scalp and their first win.

I want to be with the Eels at home, I think they can cause an upset and the +4.5 looks a nice position given their long term record and advantage when at home and receiving the line. Looks a very good game.

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet


-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-6.5 Sharks

Stats

The Dragons have won 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Sharks and 4 of the previous 7 meetings at Remondis Stadium. The Sharks have averaged less than 10 points a game against the Dragons since 2009 and only twice in the last 9 clashes have they scored more than 12 points. They have also scored more than 6 1st half points in only 2 of the previous 15 clashes with the Dragons. Only once from the last 7 meetings have the Sharks scored the 1st points of the match and only once in those 7 have they gone to half time with a lead. The Dragons are off the back of MNF where their record is poor, but they have won 6 of their last 8 following a Monday night game. The 1st home game for the Sharks, where they had a 50% record last year, averaging 18 points a game and on 6 occasions last year, the Sharks opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal when playing at home. This is the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start losers, ensuring 1 of these 2 teams will be anchored towards the bottom of the ladder.

Preview

Local derby, always a good clash where the Dragons have held the recent advantage winning 5 of the last 7. Sharks come out of a good form reference and game last week against the Cowboys, they defended well but lacked some key combination and polish to their attack in a tough physical arm wrestle. They lose Gallen which I’m not that sure is such a big loss these days as he is very much at the end of career and seems to make a habit these days of getting in the way in attack more often than not and I like Bukuya as a player as he has nice foot work and can hit a hole. The Dragons also come out of a good form reference losing to the Storm in Melbourne although there were times in that game that it looked like it might get away from them. It’s noted that McGreggor likes to focus much of his offseason and early months on defence so I don’t expect much different here.

Dragons were competitive last Monday and certainly had a number of key calls go against them late in the game which proved telling. Packer was good and will only improve with further match fitness. Their attack still looks short on combination and set plays and still very slow and predicable getting things started our of dummy half.

Just looks like a physical game of chess here, two sides searching for a win who don’t like each other all that much into an early season match up where defence is likely to be the winner. Likely tough tight arm wrestle, I like the unders bet interest.

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Storm vs Titans

-18.5 Storm

Stats

The Storm has won 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Titans and 6 of the 8 clashes in Melbourne. Melbourne are at home for the 2nd week in a row, while it’s the 1st away game of the season for the Titans who have struggled for road wins, with an average of 41% over the previous 3 seasons. The Storm have scored the opening try of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes, while a Titans Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 8 encounters. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the 1 st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6. The last 4 matches have finished Overs in TMP’s and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 8 clashes played in Melbourne. In the last 6 clashes, the Storm have been unable to go to half time with a lead, while only once in the last 9 meetings have they been outscored by the Titans in the 2nd half.

Preview

I found it hard to get this any closer than the 18.5 as they just look poles apart in quality and offering. The Storm have the advantage of back to back home games and a nice healthy week at home preparing for their next game and have a quality full list. They were rusty last week, came from behind and then had opportunities to put the result well beyond reach yet didn’t and I’m sure Bellamy has been very angry and focused this week on their game management and control, taking a grip and then putting the foot right down. The Titans were game last week but that form line in touching up the Knights doesn’t read very well and that contest was the weakest by far of the round for mine and this is a very very different match up. Henry is good at getting his teams up and prepared but the Storm at home is a task.

Hard to see anything else than the Storm aiming up here, especially on the back of what I suspect has been a very days of Bellamy climbing all over them and wanting 80 minutes of perfection here.


Tigers vs Eagles

+7.5 Tigers

Stats

The Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Tigers, but they have lost 4 of the last matches 5 played at Leichhardt Oval. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes, with the last 4 meetings totaling 48 points or more, while 5 of the last 6 Tigers matches at Leichhardt Oval have finished Overs in TMP’s. 4 of the last 5 meetings have resulted in a margin of 13+ and the same margin has been the result in 8 of the Tigers last 9 matches at Leichhardt Oval (with the Tigers losing 7 of those 8). A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and they have also scored the last try in 4 of the last 5. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 8 games of MNF, while the Sea Eagles have won 6 of their last 8 Monday fixtures.

Preview

Final team lists and key ins a major interest here, with Brooks and Halatau back for the Tigers and interest as to where Stewart returns for the Eagles.

In trying to line up this game the key is the likely patterns of play. The Eagles showed a soft underbelly last week being trampled through the middle which they have reacted to by making some key changes to their front row and middle set up, but the Tigers won’t look to play this through the middle as that is not their strength or focus and we are likely to get an attack led shoot out. There was a lot to like about the Tigers attacking efforts in the first half last week but I qualify that but also reminding us that it was against a feeble disinterested Warriors defence. I also thought a few of their tries came off large doses of luck, which happens, but these two issues question the depth of the result let alone how they then also defended poorly through the second 40. Brooks is a huge in, a classy #7 and his combinations with the #6 and #1 will take them a long way here.

The Eagles have to improve and there will be significant pressure on them to do so. Walker looked to struggle at #6 last week while Cherry-Evans didn’t step up with the type of authority required in game management and direction. This raises a key point into these weeks ahead, DCE has not been a noted play director in the past with Foran running the show to class effect and the Eagles certainly looked rudderless last week.

I lean slightly to the Eagles on the bounce back, a big kick up the backside this week and a desperate need to win, but the Tigers are in this up to their eye balls and if they can through some positive attack (and possibly points) at their opponent early on then they’ll only grow with confidence and could well open this game right up. A game I marked as one to just watch and learn from.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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