Horse Racing Tips | Memsie Stakes Group 1 Preview

Horse Racing Tips | Memsie Stakes Group 1 Preview

Horse Racing Tips | Memsie Stakes Preview

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Caulfield Memsie Stakes 2017 Group 1

Caulfield Race 7 Memsie Stakes – Odds and Race Form

Melbourne Race Club – Memsie Stakes Day Info

Race Preview

2017 MEMSIE STAKES 1400m

History

The Memsie Stakes is traditionally a very good horse’s race. First run in 1899 and won by Veneda, this race has had various distance changes over the years, the most significant from 1900-1979 it was run over 1 1/4 miles (2000m) giving the classier stayers such as Phar Lap, Lord (4 times), Comic Court (twice), Rising Fast, Hall Mark, Gallilee and Ajax (3 times) admission to the Winners Honour Roll. Since the change to 1400m in 1980, there has been a significant switch to winners being more predominantly sprinter/miler types like Manikato, Redelva, Miss Finland, Weekend Hussler, Sincero, Mic Mac and more recently Boban and Dissident. In saying that, there have been several Cox Plate Champions win this prestigious race in their lead up such as So You Think, Sunline, Rubiton, El Segundo while Dane Ripper won this race in 1998 after she won the Cox Plate the previous year. Makybe Diva is the only horse to win the Memsie and go on to win the Melbourne Cup since the distance has been 1400m, while Naturalism did win the race before falling as favourite in the Cox Plate in 1992. The Memsie Stakes was deservedly raised from Group 2 to Group 1 level in 2013. Eleven of the past 17 favourites have won the race. Last year’s champion, Black Heart Bart who started an even money favourite returns to defend his crown in 2017.

Speed

We don’t have to be Einstein to inform punters Charmed Harmony will lead given no mishap at the start. Vega Magic is well drawn and should race handy and Tosen Stardom generally goes forward in his races, however neither will trouble the John Sadler trained 8yo who should set a steady enough pace for those sitting just off the speed to get their opportunity to find the line in the straight. Black Heart Bart should not be too far away from the reasonable draw and he should get a good run in transit as should Hey Doc from the rails draw.

Analysis

Both Black Heart Bart and Le Romain ran honest races first up in top grade and did enough to suggest they could win second up. Bart has had 5 attempts this track and distance for 4 wins and a placing, along with 3 second up wins, should be well positioned in the run and will get his chance in the straight. The negative is he is now seven years old and it is debatable whether he is a little past his best. Le Romain has had 4 tries at 1400m and not ever run a place, however has won twice from four second up runs and he did appear to be looking for further on his first up effort. Has trialled since his first up run which is a significant lead fitness wise and any market move on track for the five year old should be heeded by punters. These two are arguably the best two horses in the race, are reasonably well drawn, can improve on their first up efforts and have top class riders to navigate their charges through to fight out the race.

Humidor is drawn very awkwardly and only plodded first up. He didn’t win last preparation until the 2000m of the Australian Cup so the 1400m might be a touch short for him, however he did run three placings prior to this Group 1 win, should improve markedly on his first up effort and can definitely fill a hole at good odds.

Hey Doc sprinted very well fresh to win the Auries Star and the extra 200m can only be a benefit to his winning chances. He seems to race best when fresh having won twice second up, has won at this distance from only one attempt however he does admit to four failures from as many tries on this track and the fact is some horses simply don’t go as well at The Heath as they do at Flemington which is a major concern for his supporters.

Vega Magic has an outstanding winning strike rate, 11 wins from only 16 attempts, comes into this off a first up win over 1200m on this track which followed a Group 1 Goodwood win in May. Williams aboard again, has won over this distance, gets a gun draw and will probably start favourite. Williams would have had the choice of a few rides in the race including Tosen Stardom, so he has given punters a good lead. This is his biggest test so far, his only other Group 1 attempt was an unplaced run in the Winterbottom last year and Goodwood form can be questionable.

The others look to be tested in regards to winning, however the likes of Tosen Stardom definitely has trifecta and first four chances. I Am A Star seems to go better against her own sex although her first up effort behind Hey Doc was okay and we can’t knock her place chances.

The four classy middle distance horses first up Single Gaze, Jon Snow, Yankee Rose and Seaburge might have a tough job ahead. Difficult to imagine any of this quartet will have the toe over 1400m to be close enough in the run to trouble a few of the classier sprinters, especially those who have a run under their belt. Yankee Rose does at least have some shorter distance form earlier in her career so she could sprint well fresh. The market on track as always will be the best guide to their wining chances.

Thoughts

Leaning slightly to Black Heart Bart, a proven Group 1 performer over this track and distance and at the odds appears a terrific each way chance (around the $7 mark). Le Romain would be on top if he had better distance form, a formidable opponent nonetheless and any market moves late for him should be followed. Not much between those two. Vega Magic looks slightly under the odds at the current mark (around $2.50) considering his only win at this level was in what appeared to be a weak Goodwood. This race appears on paper to be much stronger, although we concede he is a young horse on the way up, hails from the right barn and favourites do have an outstanding winning record in the Memsie. Please don’t allow us sour your enthusiasm on Vega Magic if you are keen on him. We would be surprised should the winner come outside those three. Hey Doc, Humidor and Yankee Rose the best of the rest.

1 #1 Black Heart Bart

2 #2 Le Romain

3 #5 Vega Magic

4 #4 Humidor

Best of luck to all in this year’s Memsie Stakes


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