Horse Racing Tips | The Everest Preview

Horse Racing Tips | The Everest Preview

Horse Racing Tips | The Everest Preview


Luskin Star provides expert Horse Racing Best Bets each week for our Reading The Play subscribers.


The Everest 1200

The Everest 1200 Randwick Race 8 – Odds and Race Form

The Everest Race Day Info

Race Preview

History

2017 is the inaugural running of this $10m race which boasts the largest purse of any thoroughbred horse race on Earth. As such, the event has not yet attained Group status.

Analysis

An abundance of speed in the event along with many different form lines with every horse accepted being specifically aimed at the $10m prize. Houtzen, Redzel, Deploy, Vega Magic all led at their most recent run while Redkirk Warrior, Fell Swoop and Tulip all raced in the first 2 or 3 at their last start. Houtzen should lead from Deply with Redzel in behind and Vega Magic coming across from barrier 10 trying to get in. This should set up the race for a swooper like Chautauqua, She Will Reign or English.

The 1200m start at Royal Randwick can be a little tricky for those drawn wide with a small bend around 100m after the start which comes in to play in fields of more than 7 or 8. So some horses can cover extra ground if trapped wide at this point.

Impossible to imagine Houtzen or Deploy winning from the front, and Vega Magic is likely to be trapped deep from the poor barrier draw. Redzel and Redkirk Warrior should get gun runs from their draws, while English and She Will Reign will go back from the start, as will Chautauqua, just how far behind the leaders will determine his true winning chances.

Both Redzel and Redkirk Warrior should be positioned close enough in the run to be hailed the winner at some stage in the straight. Drawn ideally bringing winning form into the race they are both serious winning chances. Redzel probably the better of the two with more clockwise racing experience under his belt.

In Her Time ran around 33.40 last 600m to win the Premier Stakes, the main lead up event, making it very difficult for the back markers. What sectional Chautauqua ran that day is incredulous to imagine, as he gave the leaders 10-12 lengths on the turn and was beaten under 3 lengths. If he can race closer, he could blow this field away as he did in the T J Smith in the autumn, and with any rain his winning chances grow immensely. Englishes run in the Premier was outstanding and a repeat in The Everest would see her hard to beat. Alas, she will have to go back from the bad barrier and be ridden for luck, nevertheless, with abundant speed on she can find the line strongly to be in the finish. Clearly Innocent came from well back to finish third in the Premier following a luckless placing in the Stradbroke back in June. Interestingly Hugh Bowman chose to ride this 6yo gelding over a couple of others which is a strong lead for punters. At around the $15 mark, he looks good each way value for punters. And should she get a run, do not discount In Her Time. She had little luck in Brisbane throughout the winter copping several wide barriers and could possibly have won 2 or even 3 of those races including the Stradbroke and the Tiara.

Golden Slipper winner She Will Reign belied the jinx of previous winners to destroy a high class field in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley last start. She came from an impossible position on the turn but had them covered at the 100m mark, the win had to be seen to be believed. Should she repeat that effort and with the feather weight she will carry, Corey Brown can get her home first.

Brave Smash has UK hoop James Spencer navigating which may be a concern from barrier 9. The Japanese import was beaten on merit in a restricted race last start and Vega Magic also beat him on merit first up, so we are happy to risk him.

Fell Swoop does not appear to be racing at his best while Tulip from the wide draw looks outclassed.

Summary

Looking for a run on horse to win with so much early speed.  She Will Reign, English and Chautauqua should be able to get home over the top of the leaders in the straight, and with a massive pull in the weights the 3yo filly appears the pick. Redzel will hit the lead topping the Randwick rise, whether he can hold off the back markers we will find out on Saturday afternoon. Clearly Innocent with Bowman aboard is the best outsider. If the track is rain affected, Chautauqua is the one to be on.

1 #10 She Will Reign

2 #1 Chautauqua

2 #9 English

4 #3 Redzel

Best of luck to all those punting on The Everest.


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Published on in Horse Racing.