Horse Racing – Jan 25th to 31st
Horse Racing File – Jan 19th to 24th
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Despite daily review due to the current weather and its impact on race fields, meetings and or cancelations there have been no selections or recommended bets since last Saturday. At this stage the next likely betting day will be this Saturday 2nd Feb.
Warwick Farm R2#3 HAVANA REY – unplaced
Trentham R7#14 REVOLT – unplaced
Trentham R9#11 O’FILLE – unplaced
Canterbury R5-3 UNANIMOUSLY – unplaced
Moonee Valley R6-7 KOONOOMOO – unplaced
Saturday 26th January
A pretty ordinary days racing in Australia today, with a few teasers I’d love to tip that don’t quite meet the criteria to seriously recommend.
I have largely turned my focus to Trentham NZ today with one horse that stands out like the proverbial………. just has to be backed by anyone who takes their form study seriously.
Warwick Farm R2#3 HAVANA REY
Looks the weighted horse of the day in Sydney today. He meets the 3yo Ferment 5.5kg better here for a narrow defeat last time which is extremely significant. He should be fitter here at his 4th run back (bolted in 4th up last prep) is from a very in form stable, and is 2/2 at this distance and 3/3 at this track. It’s a bit of a thin race in regard to depth and he looks about an even money chance on paper. $2.40 is available so he seems good value here.
Trentham R7#14 REVOLT
Put 4 wins together in the late Spring early Summer of 2011 in Sydney for the Hawkes stable. In one of those races he beat the subsequent G2 placed horse Nextanix giving away 1kg so he does have the quality to win a fairly weak G1 mile in NZ. He is a lightly raced 6yo so has obviously had problems in his career, but his recent form is consistent enough to say he is close to a win, especially off the back of carrying the massive weight of 59kg 3 times in succession. The form around him is good enough to suggest he will be competitive here and it’s maybe significant that he gets weight from a few mares here that head the betting market. Not overly confident but I’m not going to die wandering here at the massive odds of $31 win & $8.25 the place (Unitab Fixed but $21 elsewhere). Looks more like a $10 chance to me so well worth the investment.
Trentham R9#11 O’FILLE
Looks an absolute moral here at the weights on her win last week at 2100m. And the best things is her odds don’t reflect it which is a massive bonus. She meets the runner up Spiro 5.5kg better for relegating it to the runner up spot last week and it was a decisive 1.8L margin. She meets The Solitaire 3.5kg better for thrashing it and Inferno 3kg better for doing same. The pre-post favourite Ransomed meets Spiro on similar terms off a narrow victory in their last meeting so given that he can’t get near this mare either. O’Fille stepped up 500m to win last start so you’d think she would strip fitter today and on breeding the extra 300m shouldn’t trouble her. At level weights she has finished alongside other mares who have performed well at WFA level so the 52kg she carries here really does look a luxury. The only real doubt in my mind is the 7 day backup with no precedent but she is apparently a tough mare who isn’t easily fazed according to a media story from some time back. She looks to me to be the best bet in a G1 race for some time. She only needs to perform to the level of last week to win this very comfortably. I don’t understand the generous $6 quote on offer but would recommend ‘jumping through hoops’ to take it. She is quite clearly the bet of the day and easily the bet of the year thus far given the weight advantage and recent formline.
HAVANA REY – Win Only
REVOLT – Each Way
O’FILLE – Win Only and clearly the bet of the day at the price.
Friday 25th January
Canterbury BMW Classic (R5)
Track- should be rated good for this race with fine weather forecast.
Tempo- should be very solid with Zaratone a flying machine early & Didncostalot likely to challenge him for the lead early. Uate may also show interest for the lead and whilst Unanimously is also an on pacer he really should be able to take a sit off at least 2 of these and possibly all 3
WHITEFRIARS- Easily won a Barrier trial on 15/01 after a reasonable effort first up after a very long layoff. He had no hope of winning there having to go back from a wide alley and finding himself 3 and 4 wide in a race devoid of pace. His 2nd to Pinwheel in the 2011 rendition looks pretty impressive now considering he did concede that horse 3kg. He has beaten the likes of that horse, Typhoon Tracy & Ortensia in is career so has certainly earnt his big weight. 2-2/4 at this distance reads very well but his 2nd up record doesn’t seem encouraging @ 0-1/4. He also has a poor record with an extended break between runs (not inclusive of a spell) so maybe the recent trial is just what he needs in respect to performing at his best here. He has drawn wide again but should at least get a race more run to suit this time and it might negate the alley. If he can regain his old form he is a winning chance here but that is probably the million dollar question.
SKYTRAIN- He meets Whitefriars on the same weight terms for beating him home first up. Since then he ran a close 3rd in listed grade behind Testarythm but that from seems a little suspect. 1200m is clearly his best distance (5-5/16) so the 1100m isn’t so much in his favour here. The likely fast tempo might be though, Heavy tracks are definitely his best surface with not surprisingly Autumn and Winter his best season. Neither scenario involved here. He prefers 2 weeks or less between runs and it is 24 days here. Most punters recognise him as a real tease, often looming up to win and failing to deliver. Not really enough in his favour here to predict that might change.
UNANIMOUSLY– Won this race last year with .5kg less. He hasn’t won since but I think it is important to recognise that he should have won 2 races in a row at M/Valley just before last Spring, and had he had won either or both of those races he would be carrying at least 1kg more here. One of those races was taken off him on protest, and in the other he was caught hopelessly wide and a tragedy beaten. He is 0/4 on left handed tracks so maybe he just doesn’t handle that direction, and his overall record would certainly read better had he not ventured South of the border. He has some very pertinent stats for this race;
1. 2-1/3 at the track
2. 5-8/16 this distance 1100m opposed to 1-1/7 at 1200m and beyond
3. 4-3/8 barrier 1-3, and has drawn 2 here.
4. 5/11 Spring/Summer opposed to 1/12 in Autumn/Winter
5. 3-0/5 First up
His less than 2 weeks between runs reads terribly at 0/7 so he is clearly the type of horse that prefers to be on the fresh side. He has won a Barrier trial by 5L recently and his trainer reports he is more forward than usual for a first up run.
He should get he ideal run in this race and I like him a lot.
ZARATONE- He is the likely leader here but generally seems to struggle in this class of race and he isn’t racing quite as well as he can. The extended break between runs doesn’t read well, but his record this distance is good and he has close to a 50% strike rate this time of year. He meets Skytrain .5kg better for their last meeting where he beat that horse home .1L but that form doesn’t read well given the convictions of that horse.
UATE- He looks a bit outclassed here on current form, prefers to draw inside, and more than 3 weeks between runs is his favoured preparation. Neither of those situations transpire here. 1/1 at this track is encouraging but that was at 1250m in easier grade. Not overly keen on him.
JEST CREWSIN’- He is a bit hard to catch and was beaten 3L by Unanimously in this race last year and meets him no better at the weight this time around. I think that might suggest how well weighted UNANIMOUSLY is though! He has a good record at 1100m but a significantly better one between 900-1000m (4-3/9). A Heavy track would bring him into it (4-2/12) but that isn’t likely. Looks tested.
DIDNTCOSTALOT- Note he has been Gelded before this preparation! That is sometimes a positive and other times a mistake so hard to predict he is going to blow this field away as a result. That said he is a definite hope here seeing he is on the minimum and finished less than 3.5L from the winner in two WFA races last Melbourne Spring. His form at 1100m is encouraging statistically, but his recent form tells you that 1000m and/or wet tracks might be even more his go. In all of his career wins he has led, so the fact Zaratone opposes him here looks a negative. He is weighted to win on those Spring runs though, and other performances in Sydney against the likes of Emotional Circus & Nobby Snip suggest this is a winnable race for him. Won first up last preparation on a wet track so he is likely to be primed again.
TERRITORY- Ran really well for a new stable first up but this is a lot harder event and his best form has actually been at 1400m. He has a reasonable 1-1/3 record second up but his 0-2/2 with more than 2 weeks between runs isn’t overly encouraging. Could surprise but he has to go even better than he did first up to trouble these.
I’m very keen on #3 UNANIMOUSLY here. He has a lot going for him statistically, looks nicely in at the weights, and really should get a dream run in the race. He won this race last year and this doesn’t look too much harder. $3.90 is available and I think that is nice overs about a horse that I think should be around the $3.00 quote. Win only at that quote.
Didntcostalot the danger and interesting to see how he performs without the crown jewels! If Zaratone wasn’t engaged I’d be seriously considering him but the fact he is changes the whole perspective of the race.
Moonee Valley R6 Australia Stakes
Track- Fine Weather and a dry surface should ensue.
Tempo- Should be reasonably solid here with more than half the small field likely to go forward with Zedi Knight, Outlandish Lad & Sea Lord in serious contention for the lead with Unanimously sitting off them and Bonnie Mac just behind that quartet.
Not going to fully analyse each runner here but I do like one at pretty short odds and another at extremely good value.
PINWHEEL- Heads the market here and rightly so. He is clearly the best performed horse in the race being a dual G2 and G3 winner, 3 of those at the WFA level he contests here. He has an astounding 1200m record of 9-9/20 with the 2 unplaced runs a 1L 4th and a 1.8L 5th. That is virtually unrivalled in this country and probably only bettered by Black Caviar. Other statistics that single him out;
1. 3-2/5 Summer
2. 7-6/14 if fields of 10 or less
3. 4-8/12 Barriers 1-3
4. 4-0/5 62+ days between runs.
All are pertinent for this event and what a super consistent performer he is. There is one real big negative though and that is his very ordinary left handed track record of 1-3/8. I’m prepared to forgive it because the vast majority of those runs have been in fields of 12 or more. As you can see from the above stat he is a super horse in smaller fields. His last run in Perth was an absolute bottler and but for a very ordinary McEvoy ride and/or a wide barrier he may well have scored. He just got too far back and had too much to do in the straight. He should get a great run here behind the pace and be the first to pounce down the short straight. $2.10 is available here and that is pretty decent as I think he has at least a 50% chance of winning.
KOONOOMOO– Is an underrated mare and especially so in regard to this race given the $15 quote that is available. She ran a super time of 1.21.01 on Melbourne Cup day winning over 1400m at Flemington and came from 14th on the turn in doing so. It eclipsed the 2 other 1400m times by more than 1 second on the day, and one of those races was won by promising Sydney sprinter Mahisara. The form out of her race was sensational with placegetters Mid Summer Music winning a harder event against the males at Sandown and Cabernet winning a mares event on the same day. And it should be remembered that MSM is a G1 mare and had beaten Pinwheel home in the Stradbroke last Winter by a sizeable enough margin. This filly had a new trainer last preparation and it does seem that he came to the realisation quite quickly that she is better ridden conservatively, which is precisely what makes her so dangerous here. She should have gone very close to winning 1st up last Spring when unlucky, has won 4 of her last 9 starts and only once finished more than 2L off the winner in that time. She is 2-3/8 here which is a positive and her record @ 1200m, and first up does nothing to shake my resolve about her for this race. We never really got to find out the worth of the supposedly 2nd tier mare events last Spring but drawing a line through what Kings Rose did first up beating Spirit of Boom (just ahead of Pinwheel in Perth), and her subsequent placing behind Whateverwhenever (nowhere behind Koonomoo at Flemington) we might be in for a nice surprise here!
Undeniably seems to be attracting support, maybe even challenging for favoritism here, but has been bit fragile in his caree,r and I find it hard to see why he is a shorter price than Sea Lord who meets him 2.5kg better for a narrow defeat last time. And that horse likes M/Valley and has a bit of ticker, certainly a place chance at least in the race.
Outlandish Lad will run an honest race but he and Zedi Knight might cancel each other out up front and look tested at WFA.
Bonnie Mac a blowout chance but from what we have seen of her this might be a bridge too far.
This is a hard call for me but I’m going to suggest an Each Way bet on #7 KOONOOMOO at the big value. Only 7 runners here so she would need to run 2nd if she doesn’t win, but there is a likelihood of a $5 place payout given that. Alternatively you could save on Pinwheel (or vice versa) and play around with the Quinella on the 2. Admittedly I could be way off the mark here but I don’t want to sacrifice a $15 winner (and $5 the place) because of a $2.10 chance in the same race.
Friday Summary: I’m keen on UNANIMOUSLY as my best and although Pinwheel looks hard to beat I do like the each way chances of KOONOOMOO at a nice price and recommend that that looks the right way to play the race.
There will be no additional selections for Friday nights meetings.
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