Horse Racing – Feb 7th to Feb 14th – Free

Horse Racing – Feb 7th to Feb 14th – Free

Brisburghphil
Horse Racing File – Feb 7th to Feb 14th

Free Previews – 19th January to 1st March 2013. As an introduction to Reading The Play followers all of BrisburghPhil’s previews and selections will be provided FREE for the opening 6 weeks through to 1st March, after which subscription charges will then apply.

All selections and previews for each week – Friday to the following Thursday inclusive will be listed and published in a weekly file. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. BrisburghPhil’s selections and recommended bet list will be published on line by or before approx 11am of any day that a recommended selection has been made. Twitter (daily) @RTP_HorseRacing and @BrisburghPhil as well as Email (weekly) notifications will also be sent at the time of publishing and updates.

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Bet List

Thursday Seymour Race 8#7 RUSHWORTH – unplaced

Wednesday – Mornington R7#3 ROCKING FORCE- unplaced

Wednesday – Mornington R8#15 AWARD SEASON – unplaced

Wednesday – Mornington R9#9 MARINER – unplaced

Sunday – Hobart R8#4 NORSQUI – unplaced

Sunday – Hobart R9#2 UNDER THE EIFFEL – unplaced

Sunday – Naracoorte Cup R7#4 BERNIE’S BOY – unplaced

Saturday – Caulfield R7#3 MR MOET – 3rd $3.70

Saturday – Caulfield R8#6 BUDRIGUEZ – 1st $6.50

Saturday – Bendigo R6#6 HAMAM – 1st $4.00

Saturday – Eagle Farm R6#12 ALCANCIA – 4th

Saturday – Warwick Farm R8#13 HARDBREAK HOTEL – unplaced

Staking: For selections up to $7 we recommend 1 unit to win. Selections at $7 or better we recommend 1 unit each way. All result keeping is based on this approach and the best price that we could obtain for each selection.

Selections
Thursday 14th February

Not having the greatest time of it this week but you are only as bad (or good) as your last bet, and it is long term profit (based on value) that we are looking for. We still have our noses ahead overall and will win the battle in the months ahead sticking to tried and tested commonsense methods of form analysis.

Seymour Race 8#7 RUSHWORTH

A tip based almost exclusively on a formline that is strong and recent. He was quite a hot $3 favourite 2nd up from a spell but disappointed running a 4L 5th. But ahead of him were Jolie Blonde, Who Stole My Sock, and Jiggle It. JB won the listed Hareeba Sprint at Mornington yesterday whilst WSMS won a 72 class at the same meeting and JI ran a 0.8L 4th in a 68 class race, again at the same meeting. Even though JI was close up in inferior class yesterday it is interesting to note that her overall time was considerably better (.5 sec) than WSMS ran winning at the same distance yesterday. She finished alongside Rushworth last start.

I’ve also noted that Mega Rich, perhaps one of the better chances opposing him today relegated a horse called Rockshaft by 1.8L to second place 2 starts ago and has subsequently placed in a higher class race than this (72). Rockshaft was subsequently beaten out of sight in the Jolie Blonde race and was 4.5L astern of Rushworth in doing so. Rushworth gets .5kg here off Mega Rich so should beat that horse home comfortably.

He is yet to race beyond 1200m so the 1400m is a slight query but trainer Mick Kent is generally astute at measuring the stamina of his cattle (an excellent trainer of stayers) and the horse does have a full sibling that has won at 1600m. He has the inside barrier here and just might be ridden a bit more patiently this time around to help him finish his race off better. Yet to win on anything but a Heavy track but he did run a close 2nd first up this time in on a good surface and he has been city placed on a Dead track down the straight at Flemington. I envisage him being favourite here again at between $3 and $4 and would find that an acceptable Win Only bet given the formline. Any price better than that would be surprising and definitely a bonus.

Wednesday 13th February

I have nominated 3 bets for today (Wednesday) which look the best gambles anywhere. They are each at the main meeting (Mornington) where we have a strong card and I’m far more comfortable in concentrating here where the quality is than elsewhere. I have had a looked at Brisbane and Sydney and don’t much fancy what is on offer.  

Mornington R7#3 ROCKING FORCE

Has some very solid statistical information to suggest we should invest in him at the $10 on offer Each Way.  Listed are the key data that comes into play for him today;

A) 3rd up he is 3-1/5 as opposed to 1-7/14 when he is 1st or 2nd up

B) 15-28 days (between runs) 5-7/12 as opposed to 0-14 days @ 0-4/10. Last start was 14 days and 3 of his last 4 starts outside of being 1st up have also been defeats.

C) 4-8/14 at this distance of 1200m

D) From Barriers 7-9 he is 3-6/9 as opposed to 2-9/19 all other barriers

E) Carrying 55-55.5kg he is 2/2

F) This track 0-1/1 (at this distance)

There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed in the race with only Last Gift & Jolie Blonde the only 2 challenging for the lead. RF generally races just off the pace so should get himself into a decent position with little other genuine speed inside him.

Glen Boss aboard doesn’t hurt either and this should get his chance if good enough. Quite possibly a Dead track would suit better but that isn’t conclusive. The stats look pretty good for him in regard to a winning performance today but even better to fill a minor placing. I reckon this race has been planned for him so I’m expecting him to run very, very well.

Morant looks the one to beat and drawing a line through a horse called Stratcombe he may well have RF’s measure at the weights. BUT he is first up (RF has fitness on his side) and generally gets back in his races so will need luck. Not a great deal of pace in the race and now 16 starts since he won a race. Not sure I want to be taking $3.50 about him. Launay looks a solid chance first up being the class runner but his fresh record is average and the awkward barrier may well bring him undone being a midfield type of horse. Eight Bills was very unlucky for us last start and rates as a good chance here but his form at 1200m is ordinary whilst his 1000m record is stellar. Likely to be at $10 plus I suggest an Each Way bet.

Mornington R8#15 AWARD SEASON

Has been impressing of late and I like the fact he sits here on the minimum, in what is only a reasonable quality listed staying race. I’m banking he is up to this class in his European form alone whereby he finished 1L from Puissance De Lune one day, conceding that horse 1.5kg. PDL is of course the early Melbourne Cup favourite for this year and the boom stayer in this country. A study of Warwick Farm 2400m times of late might be a telling pointer to his chances here only. On January 5 he ran 2.27.95 for the trip whilst on January 26 one of his opponents here in Shadows In The Sun ran a very similar 2.27.87. Last 600m sectionals of both races are also similar and a perusal of all times on both days points to the surface being almost identical. SITS jumps 5kg on that run whilst Award Season stays at the same weight. For me that is a very telling factor and is also very encouraging that AS has won since stepping back 500m in journey and receives no penalty for it. Pertinent to note that the first 3 career starts of this horse were all at 2000m which would indicate his previous trainer didn’t rate him at all below a middle distance. The step back up to 2400m should be very favourable today.  He is quite a small horse so the low weight and 3.5kg weight drop from last start can only assist here. Just up to Kerrin McEvoy to keep him clear of buffeting in the run and at least the horse has performed admirably in fields of this size before. Very hard to tip any horse to beat him so I think the $4.60 about him is good value (and will likely shorten) given his current form. Win Only.

Mornington R9#9 MARINER

Looks a bit similar here to our recent Moonee Valley winner Captura in regard to getting in pretty well at the weights and meeting a similar field of horses. He is twice the price of Mashkoor and that horse was only just able to beat home Catagious  last start at level weights. 2 starts back Mariner met Catagious on 3.5kg better terms and beat him home 2.5L. Today he meets him on identical weight terms and gets that weight off both he and Mashkoor. He was also just touched off by Verification last start at level weights and now meets him 2.5kg better. 1600m might suit him better than most of these and he has barrier 1 and the services of Craig Williams. The stable also has Sapphire Princess, also well in at the weights, but she is a little suspect at 1600m (0/4) and that mare should have the measure of Two Sugars at the weights on their past 2 meetings regardless. I don’t really understand the $8.50 available about MARINER but I’m not going to complain about it and suggest we back him Win Only (each way punters may wish to do so at this price).

Summary: Good to see some good quality racing returning to the midweek ranks and I’ve hopefully found some value in these 3. Although AWARD SEASON is in the hardest race on paper (and biggest field)  I’m figuring he is potentially a very good horse, and well and truly capable of handling his opposition here and likely to be set for the spring staying races later this year. I’ll make him my best but the other 2 definitely represent very good gambles.

Sunday 10th February

A big day in Tassie with the running of the Hobart Cup and a 1400m feature sprint. The Apple Isle has been a reasonably happy happy hunting ground for RTP followers this Summer and my thoughts on both races today are contained below. Don’t forget that if you follow Twitter to follow our Horse Racing account – @RTP_HorseRacing

Hobart R8#4 NORSQUI

Is the logical pick for me here at a somewhat generous early quote around $8. It was a significant return to form second up by him last start when a close and unexpected half length 2nd to The Cleaner.

Last year almost to the day he won the listed Mornington Cup at this distance by a clear 2.5L margin which is probably good enough form to take this out. Realistically he is almost certainly the best 2400m+ horse in this race with a victory over 2800m in the Long Black on Melbourne Cup day 2011 beating Excluded and a good 3rd to subsequent Group and Sydney cup winner Niwot in the Andrew Ramsden over 3200m in May 2011. Both those races are some time ago now but it does serve to prove that he has raced better horses than these and the win at Mornington last year just about franks that assumption. He enjoys running in bigger fields (4-1/16 opposed to 2/11 with less runners) which indictes he doesn’t mind the speed on in his races. He should get that here with The Cleaner engaged and he did go close to running him down at a 300m shorter distance last start. That horse is yet to prove himself at this extra distance. He is versatile in regard to field position but ideally would stalk that horse similar to last start, getting the first crack at him on straightening. Jockey Chris Symons knows him well and is 2-2/7 aboard. A good record this track  3-3/10 with the only negative perhaps the 21 days between runs. Would have preferred him to have only 2 weeks between but it was 18 days last start and he looks ready to peak anyway. He looks a good play to me at the price Win Only but if at the $7 or better (most likely) Each way Bettors might delight and save at the nearly $3 on offer the place.

Hobart R9#2 UNDER THE EIFFEL

Has been struggling to win of late but I think he might have found the right race here. Significantly he has drawn wide at his past 2 starts and tactics have been different on both occasions. 2 starts ago he got back in the field and ran a superb race to finish 3rd in a very sedately run race. Last start they decided to go forward presumably with a view to countering what happened the start before but he just couldn’t bride the gap on leader Le Remas on top of conceding 5.5kg to that horse. The form looks enormous now because Le Remas was only 2.5L away in the WFA CF Orr yesterday, a hell of a formline for this race today. Furture Solution ran 3rd in that race and has since won a Metro race so the form is massive for want of a better word. The main danger to him would have to be Banca Mo who ran a bottler first up behind Rebel Bride. My reasoning for choosing UTE over him is thus;

Last start UTE gave It’s Crunchtime 2kg and beat it home 3L.  That makes UTF a 5kg superior horse to IC. That horse beat Rebel Bride here 3 starts ago by 1L in receipt of .5kg making him a .5kg superior horse at level weights to her at the time. Rebel Bride has since relegated Banca Mo into a placing by 1.4L  in receipt of 2kg. At level weights that makes Banca Mo a .6kg superior horse to Rebel Bride. But when you consider Under The Eiffel has 5kg/L on It’s Crunchtime (albeit IC might be better at 1200m than 1400m) he should comfortably account for Banca Mo at level weights today. Banca Mo is still not at his optimum distance either whereas UTE probably is. Second up a slight query too. Today UTE he has drawn better in barrier 2 and is hopefully ahead of Banca Mo in the run. I’ve never been a fan of UTE and I am fond of BM which makes this a little difficult for me but that formline is just too hard to ignore and he has to be backed Win Only. $2.30 fixed  up about him this morning and $3 BM. Whilst that isn’t great value for him the $3 about BM appeals to me even less. I was anticipating $2.50-$3.00 about UTF and we might still get that later in the day.

Naracoorte Cup R7#4 BERNIE’S BOY

Looks the one here with the 1.5kg claim for apprentice Jake Toeroek seeming absolutely critical. I’ve done an exhaustive weights and formline study of this race and am pretty adamant that 1.5kg should make the difference against horses like Evenmoreaction & Andronica. The horse is in form (coming off a last start win), good at this distance and 1/1 here at this track. The co-favourite and topweight has to shoulder 61.5kg and concede him 8.5kg which might take a bit of doing. BB should lead today or be right on the pace and the jockey can utilise the light weight to get most of these chasing off the bit before the turn.  $3 Fixed this morning is just enough for me but I envisage we could get better later in the day with 2 other horses close to him in the market right now. Win Only at that quote.

Summary: I’m quietly confident about UNDER THE EIFFEL and have him marked as the best for the day supported with two other nice gambles for us to follow. 

Saturday 9th February
Caulfield R7#3 MR MOET

Looks a solid each way hope here and the $17 on offer about him is probably double the price he should be. This tough as nails Perth horse has won 7 of his last 12 starts and hasn’t been beaten more than 2.5L in any of his past 15 outings. He has a solid fitness grounding here (unlike most in this field) after a 4 start Summer campaign in his home state and is 2-1/3 in his last three attempts 5th up into a campaign. He may lack the class of some of his fellow competitors here but he doesn’t know how to run a bad race and pretty much did the impossible winning at 1600m in the G1 Railway back in November. For some reason WA horses generally do produce the unexpected over in Victoria and once again we have one here who is shunned in the market. I’m not sure our WFA stocks are at an all time high at the moment so he has a sneaky chance of taking this out. His trainer sounds very keen on him causing an upset and he really does have a big opinion of the horse. A lot of Perth trainers don’t travel East with their horses, but he has and has also brought his regular jockey Dean Staeck with him, a good sign. 2-2/5 @ 1400m and 3-1/5 first up give me even more hope. Just has to be backed at the price and no point in dying wondering. Each Way and a great chance of getting at least a place in this 10 horse field.

Caulfield R8#6 BUDRIGUEZ

Looks to get a cheap lead here with no other defined on pacer in the race, and I’m very much hoping that he can dominate proceedings from the front. He won his last start in Adelaide leading all the way with Winkers On first time. He has been to Melbourne 4 times before and drawn wide on every occasion, placing just the once. Today he has drawn ideally and was doubly engaged, also entered in a Morphettville race. So the fact he comes to Melbourne would seem a vote of confidence. He too has a fitness advantage on the majority of his rivals, and has enough ability to make that count here. $6 is enough to interest me but I think better can be obtained later in the day. If double figures can be acquired he might be an each way bet to nothing but at this stage Win Only for mine.

Bendigo R6#6 HAMAM

Has some very encouraging formlines out of his narrow Maiden win at Werribee on January 27.  The time from that race was significantly better than the other Maiden on the same card and similarly so in comparison to the Class 1 winner that day. 2nd placegetter Pitch Perfect won it’s Maiden very comfortably at M/Valley last start. 4th placed Beach Front won a Swan Hill maiden by 2.5L subsequently and a horse beaten 8L called Rockin’ Ransom won it’s next start and Maiden by 3.5L. This horse gave PP a nigh on impossible start in the straight over 1100m last start so I’m expecting the 1400m to be an asset today. And he has placed this trip previously. I can’t predict a price here but I’m hoping that $3+ is available. Not my usual play but lucky enough to spot the formline so very keen to invest Win Only.

Eagle Farm R6#12 ALCANCIA

Is a speculative tip here first up at a big price of $15+. Backing first uppers is a poor percentage play but I don’t mind doing so when I can get double figures. I’m banking on something like a Slow track here (there will be some give) which will suit her, and not so much some of the shorter priced ones. She won on a Heavy track at Port Macquarie last preparation on a very Heavy track and her wet form in general is very solid. The wide barrier today would normally concern me with any horse but bizarrely all her wins have been from barriers wider than 7. Even more significant is that she is 3/3 when drawn outside 10! The Gear Changes have been rung today with a T/Tie going on which indicates connections might have seriously targeted this race. Concussion Plates off is a good sign and indicates her feet are probably in good order. The give in the track should be a bonus in that regard. She ran in 2 listed Mares races last prep, finishing only 3.5L away in one of them, so I think she is up to performing well here in a BM85 on the limit weight. She could be a good Each Way play.

Warwick Farm R8#13 HARDBREAK HOTEL

Produced an eye catching run last start and appears to be building to a win here 3rd up. Trainer Guy Walter is renowned for getting his horses to peak shortly after their first up runs and this horse has a bit of an affinity for his home track, where he has won 2 of his last 4. He also ran that slashing race here last time out. It appears that he races at his absolute best this time of year and I very much like the fact he relegated Thumbtacks (also in this race) into the runner up position at Rosehill last January winning by 3L in receipt of 2.5kg. Today he gets 3.5kg from that horse. The form behind War Charm last start ties nicely in with Whitlam (through Mighty Obvious) which saluted for us last week. This is basically just a Welter field, and a few of them have convictions, and he gets in on the minimum weight. He gets back in his races but there does seem enough speed here (Fast Clip, Kinnersley, Havana Rey) to ensure he gets his chance. He firmed early yesterday from an opening quote of $21 but is still massive value @ $14+. Hopefully an Each Way bet to nothing today.

Summary: Pretty confident I have found some significant value with the majority of these today, and that is more than half the battle. I think the best of them might be BUDRIGUEZ. If he gets a soft lead (as expected) he should take no end of beating.

Selections and previews will occur across the coming week. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. Any selection on any day will be published by approx 11am.

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