Horse Racing – Feb 22 to Feb 28th – Free – Wednesday

Horse Racing – Feb 22 to Feb 28th – Free – Wednesday

Horse Racing File – Feb 22nd to Feb 28th

Free Previews – 19th January to 1st March 2013. As an introduction to Reading The Play followers all of BrisburghPhil’s previews and selections will be provided FREE for the opening 6 weeks through to 1st March, after which subscription charges will then apply.

All selections and previews for each week – Friday to the following Thursday inclusive will be listed and published in a weekly file. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. BrisburghPhil’s selections and recommended bet list will be published on line by or before approx 11am of any day that a recommended selection has been made. Twitter (daily) @RTP_HorseRacing and @BrisburghPhil as well as Email (weekly) notifications will also be sent at the time of publishing and updates.

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Bet List

Wednesday – Launceston R5#7 COME FOLLOW ME – 1st $13.00 and $3.60

Wednesday – Launceston Cup R7#3 HURDY GURDY MAN

Sunday – Kilmore Cup R7#10 LE REMAS

Sunday – Canberra R6# 10 THE CONQUEROR

Sunday – Colac Cup R6#2 GOTTINO – 2nd

Saturday – Eagle Farm 4#8 BLACK CASH

Saturday – Caulfield 8#10 MRS ONASSIS – 1st $18.00 and $5.25

Saturday – Morphettville R7#5 DASHITUDE – unplaced

Saturday – Ascot 5#6 RED HOT SAX – unplaced

Friday – Moonee Valley R2#3 HIDDEN MESSAGE – unplaced

Staking: For selections up to $7 we recommend 1 unit to win. Selections at $7 or better we recommend 1 unit each way. All result keeping is based on this approach and the best price that we could obtain for each selection.

Selections
Wednesday 26th February

I’m going to leave the good mile race alone tomorrow. I don’t want to take the short odds about Lord Of Brazil who has been in work a long time. But not sure that anything is capable of beating him out of the recent Hobart 1400m race considering that Barysh Quest got within 2L of the Youthful Jack there at big odds. Wet track suits both Youthful Jack and Banca Mo though the distance might still be too short for the latter and possibly too far for the former on an affected surface. Under The Eiffel & Cellarmaster some hope too along with Beautiful Buns perhaps.

Launceston R5#7 COME FOLLOW ME

Took my eye looking at formlines and weights for this race. Then I watched her last run and was even more taken with her chances today. That race was totally leader dominated and she was really rocketing late behind Terra Amata & Little River Girl beaten 1.2L. It was also an 1100m event and she would have picked that pair up and carried them had it been the 1200m of today’s race. Even better she meets both those Fillies 2.5kg better for it. Admittedly neither of those fillies is topping the market here but another interesting formline involves the hot pot and topweight Streetwise Savoire.  A filly called Volcanic Sky (not in this race) defeated SS on debut by .8L in receipt of 2kg. In July that same year (2012) Volcanic Sky defeated CFE by 0.8L conceding 1kg to her. Doing a calculation on that CFE would be a 3kg inferior horse to SS but gets a generous 5kg off him here. And to add just a little more confidence to the mix we should be looking at a Slow track today. This filly has handled it well in the past and she is by Mossman out of a Barathea mare, a pretty potent mix of wet track breeding. Barrier is a slight worry but hopefully she is sensibly ridden back behind he speed. I really think she is a bet to nothing at the $13 & $3.60 on offer Each Way. She might not win but that is massive overs that has to be taken!

Launceston Cup R7#3 HURDY GURDY MAN

Isn’t the kind of odds I am inclined to get excited about normally, but he looks exceptionally hard to beat in this race and it’s very difficult to pick anything to beat him. He really should have won the Hobart Cup a bit easier than he did after copping a severe bump right when he was making his winning bid in the straight. The horse must have been travelling incredibly well at that stage because it had very little impact on his momentum and he still won with some ease, which points to him being at the peak of his powers right now. He does go up 2kg here, and meets a few worse at the weights, but the margin should have been about a length more in reality Again he has drawn perfectly and Glen Boss is just so dynamic in these staying races. He knows where to put them, how to get them to relax, and when to make his winning move. The horse needs affected ground (1/8 good) and he gets it here. Pre-post you don’t really need to worry about a deteriorating surface because he should handle just about anything worse than Dead. He has been amazingly consistent his past 14 starts not having finished more than 3.5L off the winner at any of those starts winning 4 and placing at 9 starts in that sequence. This will be his 7th start this preparation and he won at that same stage last Autumn. Had he not had to back up within 3 days in the Warnambool Cup subsequent to that he may well have won there too on a Heavy surface. He is 6-8/16 with 8-28 days between runs which is encouraging, and punters can also take comfort in the fact that there is a 100K Bonus for connections here if he can take out the Hobart/Launceston Cup double. He looks very hard to beat given he meets virtually the same field as last start and he should be suited by The Cleaner making a genuine speed up front. $3 available but I’d be prepared to take anything over $2.50 Win Only.

Summing up I do like the chances of both for different reasons so I’m not inclined to make a best bet. The odds about CFM are too generous to be ignored and there is so much to like about HGM despite the price.

Sunday 24th February

Concentrating on the 3 main races of the day at 3 separate meetings;

Kilmore Cup R7#10 LE REMAS

Comes into this race off a career best run when only 2.7L away at WFA last start. He meets Wall Street 6kg better for a 1.5L deficit there and Dance With Her 3kg better for finishing right alongside her. I reckon they are the class gallopers and the ones to beat here, with all other favoured runners on the minimum a bit of a query class wise and with questionable days between runs. To be honest I was just about to dismiss La Remas off the replay as he got passed by a few superior horses in the straight last start. My focus was more on the run of Dance With Her and she looked certain to take 6th place off Le Remas over the concluding stages. He really surged though the last 50m to beat her home which really surprised me. I think it was just a case of him not being able to sprint with the better horses at the top of the straight but a really promising sign that he was starting to take ground off some quality performers late, suggesting 1600m might just be ideal for him today. He should be on the pace here from an ideal alley, and that is often important in these provincial races. I think the $8 about him is excellent value and even better might become available ($9 can be found). Win Only for me but if he drifts in the market Each Way might be advisable.

Canberra R6# 10 THE CONQUEROR

Looks a good chance here on his best form. He has been struggling a bit for that lately but has been freshened (no real precedent), and importantly a leading rider in Glynn Schofield has been engaged today. He should enjoy the Dead-Slow predicted surface today and won 2 races last preparation on Slow tracks and was only 3L off top horse Havana Rey on a Slow track in town. We saw what that horse did yesterday on an absolute bog. The wetter the better for this horse today as 2 of the favoured runners Natch Catch and Al Ahmar won’t be quite as suited. I really like the fact that he meets likely favourite AA 4kg better for a .2L defeat the last time they met back in August 2012. The horse that finished just in front of him last start (Sandrio) won the Quirindi Cup on Friday. He is drawn widely today, but likely to cross and lead, or be right on the pace. I was anticipating close to double figure about him but he has opened close to favourite @ $5 (some $6 also available). Possibly a good sign and a Win Only bet for mine.

Colac Cup R6#2 GOTTINO

Is not so much value here at an opening quote of $2.80 Fixed, but this is a thin race with possibly only 3 chances. He is a winner unlike the other 2 and is in career best form off 3 consecutive wins this preparation.

He gives 1.5kg to Lordoftheparrots here who probably represents the main danger. LOTP beat home Hurdy Gurdy Man last start in receipt of 4.5kg by 1L which means he is basically a 3.5kg inferior horse. Gottino met HGM at roughly level weights last March and just beat him home. Given that formline he is a 3.5kg superior horse to LOTP and only concedes 1.5kg here. 3rd favourite Chord was 2.5L off HGM in receipt of 5kg two starts ago so I can’t entertain him at all at the weights. The market disagrees though. Also like the fact that Gottino beat home a horse called Zlatan 2 start ago. It has since beaten The Wingman home (very good in town behind Budriguez) and then went to town and accounted for the in form Whisper Downs. I’m prepared to take the relative shorts about GOTTINO Win Only because he has so much going for him here.

Summing up: I’m quite happy with all 3 selections. I think THE CONQUEROR just might be the best of them,  and even more confident if a Slow track transpires.

Saturday 23rd February

Staying away from Sydney today with a quagmire of a track likely to eventuate. Intending to stay away from anything under $4 on a Saturday which precludes me from tipping the likes of Barakey and Miracles Of Life in the big double at Caulfield. Both are the ones to beat in their respective races. Casting the net far and wide in regard to selections and  preview a little shortened due to time constraints largely down to how difficult analysis has been;

Eagle Farm 4#8 BLACK CASH

Looks very well weighted here drawing a line through Longshoreman/Double Impact (not on this race) & Viking Heart (Ditto) & Tokamak. He should be up there with 57.5kg alongside the likes of Longshoreman & Tokamak today but finds himself on a 54.5kg limit after a last start win over Jam Fancy. Very odd that he beat Jam Fancy last start giving that horse 1kg and is weighted 1.5kg below that horse before apprentice claims. The horse is thrown in at the weights today and the wetter the better. That is my only proviso today with the track currently a Slow 6 and likely to improve. A dead surface might be enough but Good would temper my enthusiasm a little. $5 available Unitab this morning is really good value considering he should be favourite. Win Only.

Caulfield 8#10 MRS ONASSIS

Is a good rough chance here going on her form last Spring and a very impressive recent trial in Sydney where she cruised around and thrashed Ortensia in the process. I’ve mentioned before that the Mares form in the Spring is probably a lot better than people think through Koonoomoo/Serene Star and I think the former has just about proven it being only 2.5L away from the likes of Sea Lord and Pinwheel at M/Valley WFA when the race wasn’t run to suit her. This filly is 6/11 at the distance and a very athletic looking type that has already shown she is partial to Caulfield. She won first up last time and has beaten the likes of Rain Affair home in Sydney when only 3L behind Tiger Tees. Her Grandam Lady Jakeo won the Blue Diamond Stakes as a 2yo on this day. Trainer Gerald Ryan is very good with first uppers and although the barrier looks a bit awkward I can envisage her getting over in behind a hot speed and ready to pounce. Hard to be confident about anything beating Barakey if he is as good as former stablemate Hay List (looks likely) but this is a new experience for him in regard to pressure up front and the size of the field. Worth remembering too that Hay List carried 53kg his first 2 start sin Eastern States and this bloke has 57kg. I quite like the prospect of this mare at odds, probably double they should be. Each Way @ $21.00 & $5.75 the place.

Morphettville R7#5 DASHITUDE

Was scratched from a M/Valley race last night to concentrate on this event. First up she is 3/3 and at the distance she is 5/6. There is a mountain of speed in the race and I like the fact she can position in behind that looking at her career wins. Barrier looks ideal and double figures is available. Latvian Amber is a shorter quote than her but a Head to Head comparison through a horse called Whitten’s Delight suggest she is a 5-6kg superior filly and she only gives her 1.5kg here. She has big Each Way claims today at value.

Ascot 5#6 RED HOT SAX

Was back to her best first up at a big price at her latest start. She is a Listed 3yo winner and twice group placed in her own age group. She is 4-4/8 at the track, 3-1/6 with 8-14 days between runs and 2/3 this distance. Importantly she races well this time of year (Spring/Summer 5-4/10) with her only real failures last Winter at Belmont, her least favoured track. She is yet to run poorly from 3 second up attempts (1 win) and she did run .5 second faster time for 1200m last start than possibly her main rival today (Galiletto) last start. Drawn perfectly to get a nice trail and has the services of a top jockey in Pat Carberry. $5 about her is more than acceptable Win Only.

Summing up: Difficult day to get too confident but clearly the best of mine looks to be BLACK CASH particularly on a rain affected surface. Some nice value there about the others though so very hopeful of some nice collects.

Friday 22nd February
Moonee Valley R2#3 HIDDEN MESSAGE

Looks well weighted in this race and can continue on her winning way tonight after 2 consecutive wins this track and distance, and she looks good value at the $4.20 or so that’s been on offer. She beat Lucky Angel (not in this race) home last start and it ran a very good race against all comers in the Hobart Cup last start finishing only 1.5L away from the winner Hurdy Gurdy Man. She rates as a 2.8L superior mare to Lucky Angel on that last start win and Genuine Spin who challenges for favoritism here rates 3.5kg inferior to Lucky Angel after the last time they met at this distance. HM & GS are at level weights here. Topweight Manila Jewel rates as a 3.7kg superior mare to Lucky Angel after getting beaten by that mare recently but has to concede 3.5kg to HIDDEN MESSAGE here after the claim for Chad Schofield. On weights and formlines through Lucky Angel HM only needs to get a maximum of 1kg from Manila Jewel. HM has drawn an awkward barrier but the speed map I’ve looked at shows her as running a clear 3rd early in running.

Trainer Danny O’Brien likes to space her runs and she has responded well to it with the last 2 wins off similar breaks . And her record at middle distances is exemplary. Win Only.

Selections and previews will occur across the coming week. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. Any selection on any day will be published by approx 11am.

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