Horse Racing – Feb 1st to Feb 6th – Free

Horse Racing – Feb 1st to Feb 6th – Free

Brisburghphil
Horse Racing File – Feb 1st to Feb 6th

Free Previews – 19th January to 1st March 2013. As an introduction to Reading The Play followers all of BrisburghPhil’s previews and selections will be provided FREE for the opening 6 weeks through to 1st March, after which subscription charges will then apply.

All selections and previews for each week – Friday to the following Thursday inclusive will be listed and published in a weekly file. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. BrisburghPhil’s selections and recommended bet list will be published on line by or before approx 11am of any day that a recommended selection has been made. Twitter (daily) and Email (weekly) notifications will also be sent at the time of publishing and updates.

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Bet List

Wednesday – Sandown Lakeside R2#3 ATHENIAN GIRL – unplaced

Wednesday – Kembla Grange R4#1 GEEMEUP – 1st $4.00

Sunday – Hobart R8#1 REBEL BRIDE – 1st $4.00

Sunday – Sapphire Coast R7#7 QUICHANG – 3rd

Sunday – Kranji Race 9#6 EL PADRINO – 2nd $3.50

Saturday – Caulfield R4#5 EIGHT BILLS – 4th

Saturday – Caulfield R7#13 DANY THE FOX – 2nd

Saturday – Rosehill R8#15 WHITLAM – 1st $8.20 & $2.80

Saturday – Ascot R6#3 TIGER PETE – unplaced

Friday – Moonee Valley R5#3 CHELEMBRA – 2nd

Friday – Moonee Valley R8#11 CAPTURA – 1st $5.20

Staking: For selections up to $7 we recommend 1 unit to win. Selections at $7 or better we recommend 1 unit each way. All result keeping is based on this approach and the best price that we could obtain for each selection.

Selections
Wednesday 6th February
Sandown Lakeside R2#3 ATHENIAN GIRL

Is a pretty decent mare on her day and particularly appeals to me at around the $8 on offer in the early markets (before scratchings). She won very well first up at Camperdown beating a horse called Chestnut Valley. It ran a close 2nd to the well performed Stratigraphy the start prior, and taking those performances and weights into account AG rates on a par with Stratigraphy. I’m pretty sure Stratigraphy would beat this bunch of mares and I think it is encouraging anyway that Athenian Girl did beat male horses last start, and now drops back to mares grade. Even better that she gets a 2kg claim here for Tilly Neve who rode her first up to win. That means she has only 1kg over the minimum, drops 3kg from last start, and it’s encouraging too that she has won 3 of her 4 career races with a female jockey aboard. I think she is a ‘fresh’ mare which is indicated by her only 4 wins which have either been 1st, 2nd or 3rd up into a campaign. She has never won a race from 5 attempts with less than 14 days between runs, with all 4 wins being off a longer break than that. Today she is 2nd up and has 16 days between runs.

She wore Blinkers for only the 2nd time last start after a failure with them on before a spell, when she had probably had had enough. Trainer Heath Connors has only had her for 7 starts (and 3 of her wins) and he did also apply a Tongue Tie to her on debut for his stable, which is still part of her gear.

She is a speedy mare and barrier 1 should allow her to either lead or sit just off the pace. A bit surprising she was able to win first up at 1000m because her only other wins had been at 1300m and beyond, and she actually resumed at 1400m last prep and won by 7L on a Heavy surface. That might suggest that the Blinkers have really switched her on and it’s hard to see that she will be outpaced here early on. She pretty much handles all track conditions so no problems there either.

She thrashed the likes of Riverina’S Girl and Catagious in an all comers (mixed sex) race at the Geelong Synthetic track last preparation. Riverina’s Girl is now an 78 grade mare and Catagious has won a 72 grade race and was narrowly defeated by Captura last Friday night M/Valley in an RST78 . This is a Mares 78 class race so I see no reason why she can’t win at this level in town against her own sex, especially with just 1kg over the minimum. The biggest surprise to me is the price, but I’m not complaining! I’ll be backing her Win only but each way bettors can already secure their money back and more if she does run into a placing (and we might get even bet at best tote).

Kembla Grange R4#1 GEEMEUP

Is a most interesting runner here because she backs up here off a win 4 days ago into a provincial race after winning a Saturday Metro race on Saturday, something we rarely see. And the fact is she won a BM80 mares race the other day and this is a BM70 (Provincial), a significant class drop, so I’m surprised she is even eligible?? Apparently she is going to take her place and it was always the plan by the stable who are putting her out for a spell after this run. They are very happy with her coming into this race, she has taken no harm from the run last start, and apparently has a very strong constitution. Her resilience is arguably already proven running a 1.5L third on January 5 this year after a well beaten 4L fifth one start prior on January 2nd.

She is by the Champion sire High Chapparral and there is no better producer of wet track horses’ in the country. She won on a Heavy surface on Saturday and most likely gets very similar conditions underfoot today. If she had to carry 61.5kg it would have been a tall order for her but trainer Bjorn Baker has wisely opted for the 3kg claim of Jenny Duggan to reduce the impost. She is a very good apprentice and has ridden a plethora of winners for this stable and others in recent times.

This mare races up on the pace and it shouldn’t be a complicated ride in a smallish field. A weights study of this race (after the claim) does nothing to change my opinion of her chances, in fact the nearest weighted horse to her (Project Compassion) looks awfully weighted in comparison going on performances against a mare called She’s Clean. She should really be beating her 3L or more here given that formline.

Given the above I reckon the $3.00 on offer is a nice bet. Win Only bet at that price.

Summary: I’m pretty keen on both these mares and am loathe to separate them in regard to a best bet. Athenian Girl is better than twice the price though and can be backed each way with some confidence, while Geemeup appears a strong win bet, looks very well in with the significant drop in class and claim off a Saturday win.

Sunday 3rd February
Hobart R8#1 REBEL BRIDE

Did the job for us last start and she is absolutely flying at present. She won this race last year by 2L beating the very good mare Lady Lynette at the same level weights she encounters today. There seems little doubt she is going just as well this time around, and in effect this is arguably a class drop to mares grade given she beat the males last start. They don’t come more consistent than her with a career record of 9-9/18 and her worst recorded run a 5th beaten 1L. Obviously you have to give respect to the interstate invaders here but few people could argue that any of them are in quite the same class of Lady Lynette. There is likely to be decent speed in the race with Tariana (drawn wide) Rose Pattern and Bel Price prominent. Whatever happens RB should get into a comfort zone just behind that pace from a decent alley. She is pretty bombproof and realistically no more than a $3 chance in my opinion. There is $3.60 available this morning and better may be available given punters familiarity with the interstate brigade. Win only.

Sapphire Coast R7#7 QUICHANG

Has possibly beaten the handicapper 1.5kg below the minimum after the claim of a 2kg apprentice. It meets Fair Nation 5.5kg better for a .1L deficit the last time they met. It meets Micalong 2.5kg better for beating it 1L the last time they clashed. It has met Sebony 9 times and leads the head to head 6-3. It meets that horse 4kg and 4.5kg better for beating it home 2+L the last two times they have met. 1-2/3 at the track and 6-7/19 at the distance which is by far it’s favourite trip. 1-1/3 with 22-28 days between runs and 27 since it’s last outing. Back on May 27 it ran a 1.3L 3rd to Zedlion this distance at level weights. That looks super form now given that horse has won and placed on Metro tracks in it’s past 2 starts. The only real negative I can find is the apprentice jockey but at least he is a 2kg claimer as opposed to a 3kg one. The horse doesn’t need a claim given the stats I have come up with. Really not sure about a price here but I would envisage $5-$8. Win only but if he does start at much longer odds then an each way option could be exercised.

Kranji Race 9#6 EL PADRINO

Should be value here and I think we should be investing for that reason. I have tipped him before and he was poorly ridden last time over an unfamiliar mile trip where he was a stamina query. They rode conservatively and he got too far back in a slowly run race but finished off better than anything else which was very disappointing for his backers. 1200m is his best trip and he gets that today in a race with abundant speed. He goes well fresh and should be suited as he generally sits a bit closer than midfield in the run. He is certainly weighted to win. For example he meets Speedy Cat 3kg better for beating him home the last time they met. The obvious danger and probably favourite is Huka Falls who is 6/7 in his career thus far. Pin up boy Moreira rides and whilst that is almost always a positive, the odds generally aren’t and I understand he can’t ride at the 50kg allocated here so meets EP 1.5kg inferior. He hasn’t been exposed at this level yet and is a speed runner that could get caught up in a battle up front. My reservation with EL PADRINO is that he is somewhat of a day to day proposition due to feet/leg issues but he has won a barrier trial recently and there is no worries about him winning at this level if somewhere near his best. A Slow or worse track would be a negative so it might be wise to stay out if those conditions transpire. Win only if under double figures but once again if he is ridiculous double figure value Each Way can be employed.

Summary: Quietly confident we have 3 nice betting gambles today. The first two for mine are definitely the ones to beat in their respective races and I’m happy to nominate QUICHANG as the Best Bet for the day given the weights advantage he has over many of his rivals.

Saturday 2nd February
Caulfield R4#5 EIGHT BILLS

Finds himself in a race with abundant speed. He gets back so should be suited in the small field getting the last crack at them. On recent times and formlines  he can at least beat the favourite First Command here. Form and weights around a horse called  Decircles suggests he only needs to get 4-5 kilos at most off FC but he gets 6.5kg here. The big query is the backup from last week but the $6+ available just has to be taken looking at the pace scenario and his overall 40%+ strike rate at this distance. Fab Fevola finished 11L off him 2 starts ago and significantly won last night at M/Valley. Win only.

Caulfield R7#13 DANY THE FOX

Won very impressively first up at Sandown with nothing making ground on him at all in the straight. First campaign for Mick Price who revealed in an interview this morning that the horse came to him with issues that have since been sorted. He apparently looks extremely well (as he did 1st up) and the 5.5kg weight drop off that last win is a massive bonus for him here in a race that doesn’t look loaded with quality. He is potentially the best horse in the race and although drawn wide should slot in somewhere behind the pace here. $3 not massive value but good enough given his potential. Form out of his last win is solid with Captura winning last night and Min River running second at the same meeting. Win Only.

Rosehill R8#15 WHITLAM

Finds himself on a Heavy10 track here but he does get through wet tracks and has won on a Heavy9 in Victoria. He races best fresh and has been given plenty of time since the first up win to recharge the batteries. He beat Sessions and Mighty Obvious there who have both won races since. He is 3/9 at distances 1000-1100m and 0/7 beyond so it is a positive he stays at the 1100m he won at first up, which was at this track. There is a mountain of speed here through Ichihara, Kirinata, Norma Betty’s Boy & I’m Cool. He is a midfield type so should get the perfect run in transit to finish these off in the straight. In a new stable this preparation so things are looking positive for him atm. $6+ available is decent enough value for a Win Only bet.

Ascot R6#3 TIGER PETE

Looks a Group standard horse in the making after staging an amazing performance to win 2nd up last start here, rocketing home the last 200m to win comfortably when things looked forlorn at that point in the straight. 1200 suits better than the 1100m there, and whilst he doesn’t look well in at the weights here against Settle Strada for previous meetings, that horse is 0/5 at this track and is coming off an extended break with no precedent. 2nd favourite 3yo Hard Ball Get looks the only other serious hope but has a lot to prove going on ordinary times he has run thus far. He will be up on the pace but will have SS to contend with most likely and not overly well weighted in my opinion. TIGER PETE is 3/3 this track and I’m expecting another exciting performance today. $2.70 is available which is slightly better than the bare minimum I would take of $2.50. Win Only!

Summary: I’m going with the value of EIGHT BILLS as my best today. 

Friday 1st February – Moonee Valley

My form review, facts and figures suggest that these two look nice betting interests for us tonight.

Moonee Valley R5#3 CHELEMBRA

Looks very well weighted with the 3kg claim in what looks a very thin race with the 3 horses dominating the betting looking to be the only real chances.

CHELEMBRA is the least favoured of the 3 but really should be favourite in my opinion. I have it between he and Paaratte Pat. They renew acquaintances once again after 3 recent meetings with PP leading the head to head at 2-1.

Using 1kg=1L Paaratte Pat is definitely the superior horse coming out on top by 2.1, 2.5 and 2.2kg respectively. But now he has to concede 4kg to CHELEMBRA and looking at the replay of their last meeting it doesn’t seem that PP will be capable of quite doing so.

Emerald Downs looks capable enough but is a 3yo filly taking on older horses here and needs to improve immeasurably on her last run in Sydney and previous run left handed at Caulfield. In both those races she has been beaten 10L+.

There does look to be considerable speed engaged here through Fab Fevola, Emerald Downs, Paaratte Pat and Jeteven. That gives a real opportunity for CHELEMBRA to sit just off the pace and prove too strong in the run home. Let’s hope he is ridden in that fashion. $4 looks nice value and a bet for me given his weight pull on Paaratte Pat.

Moonee Valley R8#11 CAPTURA

Gets in on the minimum here in a far easier race than he contested at Flemington last start when beaten 3.5L That was an RST89 Saturday metro race whereas this is a Friday night 0-78, quite a considerable drop in class. Again the market indicates only 4 horses at best can win which I tend to agree with, and a weights/form lines study should hopefully pay dividends here. To cut a long story short I reckon he should be carrying 56.5kg+ here and not the 55.5kg (minimum) he has been allocated.

Those fond of diligent analysis can read on and hopefully understand my reasoning below but it isn’t absolutely necessary-

I’ve eliminated Catagious on the basis that he only just beat a horse called Verification conceding him .5kg last start. Verification won a race midweek, but only just over a horse called St Sambrose.

SS carried 1kg more yet was soundly beaten at his previous start (3.5L) by Praesentia & Mashkoor in receipt of 1kg and 2kg respectively. Mashkoor runs here and should comfortably account for Catagious given they meet at level weights.

Praesentia provides us with more uesful information using the form of a horse called Our Protocol. Praesentia beat home OP first up this campaign by 1.8L in receipt of 3kg, making him a 1.2L/kg inferior horse to OP overall. OP has easily accounted for the favourite in this race Galway Gal. She was beaten 3L by him in receipt of 3.5kg over 1200m on January 9. Drawing a line through that Mashkoor has roughly the same ability as OP, thus has a bit on Galway Gal here at level weights. She is also suspect on a dry surface which is the predicted footing for this meeting.

Last start at Flemington CAPTURA finished 2.5L adrift of a horse called Infinite Energy in receipt of 2kg making IE a 4.5kg inferior horse in theory. Last preparation Infinite Energy defeated Praesentia by 4.5kg at level weights. That suggests  CAPTURA is roughly level in ability to Praesentia, both being 4.5kg inferior to IE!   So given that Praesentia defeated Mashkoor last start by 0.1L, in receipt of 1kg, CAPTURA is roughly a .9kg inferior horse to Mashkoor BUT he gets 2kg off that horse here .Adding more to this equation is the fact that CAPTURA & Our Protocol met last preparation. Op finished 3.5kg ahead but in receipt of 4kg suggesting that at level weights the 2 horses would finish alongside each other.  Remembering that OP is 1.2L/kg superior to Praesentia maybe CAPTURA has just that little bit more of an edge on Mashkoor , so is well and truly worth an investment at the $5 on offer. Beautifully drawn in 4 Glen Boss should give him every chance of winning this.

Summary: Two bets for us to start the week at Moonee Valley tonight, with CAPTURA the best bet of them. He has a nice drop in class and weight, an ideal draw and a Joc in form.  CHELEMBRA is also well weighted and looks a nice gamble. I recommend both as Win Only bets.

Saturday’s selections and previews will be online by around 11am.

Selections and previews will occur across the coming week. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. Any selection on any day will be published by approx 11am.

Staking: For selections up to $7 we recommend 1 unit to win. Selections at $7 or better we recommend 1 unit each way. All result keeping is based on this approach and the best price that we could obtain for each selection.

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