Horse Racing – Comparative Time Selections
Comparative Time Selections
This is a new offering from our Horse Racing analyist BrisburghPhil.
These selections will be provided FREE to all current Horse Racing Subscribers. The following is a background and overview, all selections will be listed in a new and ongoing individual thread titled “Current Comparative Time Selections”.
Starting the first week of March 1, 2013 I will start Blackbooking horses who have posted times in lower class races, Comparative (or better) to a race of higher class, on the same day, at the same distance, and at the same track.
Here is a basic (but rather drawn out!) explanation of what is meant by my terminology of ‘Comparative’ Times and I will refer to them as CT horses in all cases. It is a great tool for identifying potential superstars and an excellent guide to finding future and subsequent winners. When there is no other race at the same distance, on the same day there is still a way of identifying whether or not a horse has run a good time, and that is by looking at the adjusted time compared to races at other distances, on that same day. Occasionally I will Blackbook using this method also. It is important to also record ‘worthy’ place getters and some others from these events too, as they rarely step up in class next start, and are quite likely to face less potent opposition next start. That is particularly true for Maiden race performers.
It is pertinent for me to state that I have had considerable experience following these horses in the past and am well aware of the pitfalls. So often a horse hits a peak upon running a fast time yet fails to reproduce next start. What I did find though is that very often these horses would find winning form again sometime in the same preparation, or the next, and countless of them did win from very low class races and eventually made it to Open Class, and even the elite Group levels. Weekend Hussler a shining example and Swiss Ace a 66-1 winner of an Oakleigh Plate just 2 of the many standouts. How fast did Black Caviar run on debut compared to a higher class race that day? Many Punters would remember that occurrence (she was exceptionally quick comparatively) and she hasn’t been beaten since. Winners going from Maiden races to Class 1 or higher are a shocking percentage play overall, fast time or not. Only 8-10% win their next outing!
It isn’t just enough to look at overall times either. Last 600m sectionals are dissected and utilised to gauge just how worthy the horse is in regard to Blackbooking. A fast run race with a slow last 600m sectional might look great in an overall time on paper, just as a Slow run race early with a fast last 600m could do too. Neither example is of great use to us in reality. Ideally we want to see a fast overall time, with a comparative or fast run last sectional. 1000-1200m races are the most accurate to deal with as tempo in 1400m races and beyond are much less reliable. Still possible though when we have a sectional time to go with.
My intention is to keep these horses as a separate entity to normal tips on the website, as an added bonus for Subscribers, and results would be recorded separately. Occasionally I might utilise a CT horse as a normal selection but not under normal circumstances. A list will be kept and updated for all to peruse, and Blackbook emails (with explanation) will be posted to the website on the day a contender is racing. How members bet (if you intend to) these entries is totally up to the individual, but personally I don’t recommend taking under $4 on race day. Recording will be of every runner and profitability in regard to starting prices can be dissected along the way.
These horses will offer members of RTP a bit more action outside of the normal tipping regimen. I’m sure they will become profitable in the long term if we are selective, and particularly so if we don’t take under the price stipulated. I do currently utilise these type of horses in my everyday analysis, and sometimes in my final selection process, but it is far more accurate to record them daily. And whilst it is time consuming initially, it will offer some time relief in the long term. Looking forward to sharing these with Subscribers, though we might not get too many in the initial fortnight or so, the period between starts for the vast majority of runners.
For all Horse Racing subscribers your subscription will now include free access to the “Current Comparative Time Selections” thread. Click in there at anytime (we suggest each morning) and follow these nominated selections.
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