NRL 2013 – Preview – Round 9 – Sunday

 

NRL 2013 – Preview – Round 9

NRL Betting Results – Year To Date

All Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   31    14  45.16   67.0   48.93   -18.07   -26.97%

Best Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   5
  2  40.0   13   6.97   -6.03   -46.38%

 

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season and are listed below under “Bet List”.

Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Bet List – R 9

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Blog: MrG’s NRL Thoughts

7th May 2013

Following Round 8 these are my current ratings, in order from top down. Pos = the current NRL table position; vT4 = currect record vs. the Top 4 sides.

I have the Storm and Rabbits now rated equal, the Eagles and Roosters 2 ratings points behind them. From top to bottom there is currently a gap of 16 ratings points.

Like most observers I have the top 4 a suitable gap above those behind them at this stage. At this stage of the season I think the Storm have come back to the field and right now don’t hold the gap over their main challengers as they had at this stage through recent seasons. I see two issues being exposed, up front I’m not convinced that they have the front row rotation to always mix it with the best (but they get the job done well enough more often than not) and clearly their compressed edge defensive pattern is being tested and broken more regularly recently than in days past. Given the periods of success that the Tigers, Warriors and now Raiders have enjoyed against them through recent weeks it will now be a path well trued by many others through the coming months.

The Rabbits are 2/3 against their other 3 top of the table contenders (including the close quality effort vs. Storm), they have also won all 5 away games including a number at tough venues (Mt Smart, Brookvale and Lang Park), they are a serious contender this year.

The Bulldogs and Broncos after 8 rounds have each played all 4 of the top 4, and each have come up with the same result (zero). The Bulldogs have had excuses and I’d suggest that as they get most of their list back on deck they should be building some winning form, the Broncos have been found out up front when it’s mattered against those who matter, but they’ll be competitive against many of the others. The Raiders with the return of Campese might well be waking a little earlier than usual from their annual slumber, they are 2 from 2 against the top 4 and now over a difficult draw of away legs.

A couple of cracking games this week, Friday night we have the Rabbits v Cowboys and then Monday the Eagles at home at Brookvale v Roosters. The Cowboys have a shocking record in Sydney having lost 11 of their last 13 and an equally poor record at Homebush. We’ll also learn a lot more about the Roosters who carry a 2 from 10 record v Eagles and a similar 2/10 record at Brookvale.

 

NRL 2013 – Preview Round 8

 

 

NRL Preview – Round 8 – 2013

NRL Betting Results – Year To Date

All Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   20    9  45.00   44   31.41   -12.59   -28.61%

Best Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   4   2  50.0   10   6.97   -3.03   -30.30%

 

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season and are listed below under “Bet List”.

Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Bet List

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NRL Preview – Round 7 – 2013

 

NRL Preview – Round 7 – 2013

NRL Betting Results – Year To Date

All Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   13    7  53.85   29   23.79   -5.21   -17.97%

Best Bets

 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD   3   2  66.67   7   6.97   0.03   -0.43%

 

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season and are listed below under “Bet List”.

Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Bet List

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NRL – Australia v New Zealand – Test Preview &...

 

NRL – Australia v New Zealand – Test Preview – 2013

Canberra: 7.30pm Friday

The Kangaroos have dominated these annual late April clashes for some time, winning the last 13 straight although the Kiwis carry the World Cup title from their 2010 victory. Many have argued through recent days the relative closeness of these recent Anzac Tests (Australia winning the last two by 8 point margins)and that we are likely to see something similar here. The markets (and I) disagree pricing the Kangaroos long odds on fav’s and offering a line of -16.5.

I think this Kiwi side looks decidedly weaker than they have played through recent years. They have no Marshall, Inu, Beale, Vatuvei or Jeremy Smith; are without the return of SBW and are weakened further by the absence for one reason or another of a few players who will now turn out for Sama or Tonga in the other international this weekend (Matai, Asotasi). I am also surprised to see Nightingale selected on the wing (and not at fullback) and Whare in the centres.

I can’t see how the Kiwis can defensively hold the Australian attack across sustained periods of play, especially down either edge where  Johnson, Kenny-Dowall and Whare are at times questionable defenders and I’d suggest by full time will be near spinning in circles given the amount of traffic that I expect to be sent their way. Kearney has made it clear that he’ll be sticking to a dummy half and one pass forward orientated game through the midfield but if the Australians open this up as I expect then they’ll have few points in them to compete with what the Kangaroos are likely to throw at them.

This Kangaroo side is littered with quality and class, with at least 4 game breakers across their list (Smith, Thurston, Slater, Inglis) let alone the direction and play making skill of Cronk at 7. They have the obvious ball play combinations in and around the Kiwi big men via Smith, Cronk and Slater, a mobile forward pack with I would expect an intention to move the big Kiwi forwards about, numerous quality kicking options (9, 7 and 6) and then the finishing skill given any room or a sniff of opportunity from their back 5. They reek points, if they are in the right mood and want to play I have no doubt they will rack up 40 something.

While it’s not always the case in my opinion this game looks made to order for a Kangaroo lop sided result. They’ll enjoy the advantage of playing in Canberra in front of a full house of support at near full strength with all the right players in quality form up against a weakened Kiwi team with many who look to be struggling for their best. I see a lot of attack and points in the Australians and I can’t see the defensive answers in their opponents.

Tip: Australia 

Last Word: Attacking class and skill to rise to the top here, I’d be surprised if they don’t put on a show. 

Betting Interest: I think the Kangaroos are likely to win but at least a 20 something margin, covering the line and then some.

Interests

If you are looking to have an interest on the game you could consider any one of the following betting options.

Anchor Australia Line -16.5 $1.90 as your main bet. I’ll also be speculating on a couple of wider line / margin options like Australia -24.5 $3.15 and Australia winning margin 19+ $2.10 or the Line/UnderOver double of Australia -16.5/Over 42.5 $3.30. If looking to play a Man Of The Match option I’d play Slater, Cronk or then Inglis.

 

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©Copyright Reading The Play  All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips, NRL Selections, NRL Previews, NRL Betting

 

NRL Preview – Round 6 – 2013 – Sunday Be...

 

NRL Preview – Round 6 – 2013
NRL Betting Results – Year To Date
All Bets
 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD  8  6  75.0  16  20.13  4.13  25.81%
Best Bets
 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD  2  2  100.0  4  6.97  2.97  74.25%

 

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season and are listed below under “Bet List”.

Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Bet List

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NRL Sunday – Free Game Previews

 

Sunday NRL Previews
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Individual Game Tips –  22/32  68.7%

Bulldogs, Titans, Sharks, Cowboys, Rabbits, Dragons, Roosters, Storm

Sunday Free Game Previews
Dragons v Knights

 

Dragons

Knights

RTP Rating

 

-3.5

H2H Opened

$2.30

$1.62

Line Opened

-1.5

 

Head to Head

Won 7 of last 10

 

At Ground

Won 8 of last 10

Lost 6 of last 10

Home/Away

80%

30%

 

Kogarah: 3.00pm Sunday

Interesting clash this, all the more so being at Kogarah where the Dragons are very good having won 11 of their last 13 here. They got their season started with a positive win against the Sharks last week, more importantly it being an away game and with some tweaks to their attack. It was noticable that they wanted to play an up tempo game with a far quicker play the ball and far greater emphasis on second phase off load play which broke their opponent up nicely. They will at least take some confidence out of winning and be difficult to roll here if they can play to their strengths of yardage up front and Sowards long kicking game (hence positive field position). Aside from the Brookvale diaster the Knights have been very good, Roberts a key inclusion at 7 adding some positive spark and individual play which is complementing Mullen at 6, they have a nice mix through the middle and then to either edge. Their test here is in aiming up on the road off the back of what happened at Brookie and a 3/10 away record. I have a slight leaning to the Dragons (for whom this is also a test) on the back of their very good form at the ground, but I’ll be happy to just watch and learn some more about both.

Tip: Dragons

Last Word: Home side very tough to beat here (Kogarah), and carry an excellent H2H record. I want to see the Knights prove themselves on the road at these difficult venues.

Betting Interest: Line ball betting game best left alone.  

 

Raiders v Roosters

 

Raiders

Roosters

RTP Rating

 

-2.5

H2H Opened

$2.65

$1.48

Line Opened

 

-5.5

Head to Head

Won 5 of last 10

 

At Ground

Won 7 of last 10

Lost 5 of last 7

Home/Away

70%

20%

 

Canberra: 6.30pm Sunday

Another good clash here. Raiders best as we know is at home (won 7 of their last 10 here) and come of a credible effort last Monday night when away at Newcastle although they have picked up a few key injuries. The key issue with the Raiders continues to be critical errors and or ill discipline at important stages of each game with them rarely able to sustain the pressure and close out a result, last Monday a perfect example when they led 12-10 out of half time yet were then comfortably run over. I expect that they’ll face plenty of frustration here against their opponents quality defence. The Roosters have been good winning their last 3, as suggested their defence impressive and tight although we have to wonder how deep that form is through the disgracful offering from the Eels last week. Their combinations are gaining confidence, Maloney and SBW’s influence notable and we’ll see a very interesting head to head contest up front with the clash of two big front rows. The issue here is a very poor away record (2/10) and at ground record (2/7) which evens the likely contest up considerable. I like what the Roosters are doing and they have the defence to close their opponent out which is what I expect to happen but I’m happy to just watch what unfolds.

Tip: Roosters

Last Word: Roosters on trust, they are very poor away and come off questionable form strength (Eels), Raiders best is at home.

Betting Interest: I could nearly take the start, but then I realised it was the Raiders whom we are never quite sure which one turns up! Leave alone.

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©Copyright Reading The Play  All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips, NRL Selections, NRL Previews, NRL Betting

NRL Preview – Round 5 – 2013 – All Game ...

 

NRL Preview – Round 5 – 2013
NRL Betting Results – Year To Date
 2013  Bets  Winners  %  Units Bet  Units Return  Profit / Loss  POT %
 YTD  3  3  100.0  3  5.54  2.54  84.67%

 

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season and are listed below under “Bet List”.

Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Bet List

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Easter Monday NRL Previews

 

Monday NRL Previews

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season commence from Round 4 onwards, and are listed under “Bet List” in each weekly NRL Preview thread.

A new NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round.

A private Twitter account @RTP_NRL_Betting is also available for all NRL subscribed members (5 week subscriptions or longer) for immediate notification of any recommended Bets, published Previews and or any ongoing updates.

Subscription Packages

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing. Full details can be found here.

Individual Game Tips –  17/24  71%

Eagles, Bulldogs, Storm, Sharks, Titans, Knights, Cowboys, Roosters

Monday Game Previews
Warriors v Cowboys
Warriors Cowboys
RTP Rating -1
H2H Opened $2.95 $1.40
Line Opened -7.5
Head to Head Won 4 of last 10
At Ground Won 5 of last 10 Lost 7 of last 10
Home/Away 50% 40%

 

Auckland: 4.00pm Monday

I’d caution that this might not look as straight forward as first glance and that the Cowboys have some work to do to be winning here. I have little time for the Warriors at present but they do now have the advantage of their first game at home and the likely return of Friend at 9 (experience, work rate and direction). It’s an away leg that the Cowboys have traditionally really struggled with (only winning 3 of their last 10) and will face up here having clocked up a lot of travel and little preparation with back to back away legs (Newcastle then Auckland). Also, as bad as the Warriors are travelling right now little separates the defensive stats of both sides with them each now conceding near 28 points a game after the first 3 rounds, the Cowboys conceding 66 across their last two weeks. I’m not sure if the Cowboys have been reading their own press and got too far ahead of themselves through recent weeks but right now they have a similar look to the Tigers of last year, on paper one of the likely contenders who then flopped through the opening months while we all kept waiting (and expecting) a form turn around. I’m sure Coach Henry has put a decent rocket up them this week but this is not an easy assignment for them. The Warriors have looked a basket case. One really wonders what they have been doing through the last few months. Their defensive attitude and commitment is poor. They are not interested in the key small plays that can make a huge different to the momentum of a game. Johnson is clearly playing injured and I’m not sure that Leuluai is 6 at this level. I don’t like the game, both sides are searching for improvement, the Cowboys should be a 20 point better side on what we expect but until they stamp some consistent play again they carry significant risk.

Tip: Cowboys 

Last Word: As we know, the Cowboys have the makings of a top 4 contender, they need to get their heads right and aim up here.

Betting Interest: I think the 8 point line is tricky, I want to see the Cowboys put up before playing with them again.

Roosters v Eels
Roosters Eels
RTP Rating -7
H2H Opened $1.40 $2.75
Line Opened -6.5
Head to Head Lost 6 of last 10
At Ground Lost 6 of last 10 Won 5 of last 10
Home/Away 40% 20%

 

SFS: 7.00pm Monday

Another interesting contest. The opening rounds each season will throw up numerous highs and lows as teams find form, combinations and manage the change of new coaches, key players and or tactics – and or a rebound from a poor start or major loss (like the Raiders and Knights). The Roosters and Eels are another two on a new path this season with new coaches, the Roosters off a poor first up effort have then won two games and made improvement each week. The Eels started well with a home win and close loss to the Bulldogs then capitulated last week to the Tigers. So we have some team form and general form lines still sorting itself out. The Roosters have struggled to score points but have defended well (averages attack 12 defence 14), the Eels a mixed result (attack 25 defence 21) yet the markets see a clear advantage to the Roosters and a potential 8 to 10 point margin. Maloney and SBW have provided some class and balance to what the Roosters are now doing, they are also playing with a big middle (Waera-Hargreaves, Moa and Nuuausala) but their basic error and ill discipline is still a major issue and penalising much of their progress. I though the Eels were very luck to finish with only 30 points against them last week. They were there to be thrashed such was their basic error and poor attitude, but they have the advantage here of an 11 day turn around and an extended period for Stuart to freshen them up and attempt to get them back on track. They remain on the road for the third week in a row (and carry a shocking away record) but are lucky to some degree that all three games have been Sydney based road legs. I’ve been with the Roosters through their last two wins, and expect them to win here but I’d not be comfortable playing with a wide line with a side that is still struggling to score points and get their discipline right – let alone have been able to post 8 to 10 plus points winning margins (which they are yet to do). 

Tip: Roosters 

Last Word: At home the Roosters look slowly on the improve and can win here. I do expect the Eels to be better than last week. 

Betting Interest: Happy to leave alone, let’s see the Roosters clock up some points and margin before playing with an 8 point line.

 

2013 NRL Season Preview – if you haven’t seen the detailed (19 pages) season preview it’s available here

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©Copyright Reading The Play  All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips, NRL Selections, NRL Previews, NRL Betting[/private]