BBL Big Bash League Cricket Season 06 Tips Previews
BBL Big Bash League Cricket Season 16-17 Tips Previews
BBL Big Bash League Cricket Tips Game Previews Betting Tips
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – Sportspunter Big Bash Odds Comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend of RTP and keen Sports follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Results BBL Big Bash League Cricket Tips
2016-17 BBL06 | Profit 14.2 units
2015-16 BBL05 | Profit 14.48 units
26 winners / 46 bets | Strike Rate 56.5% | Profit 14.2 units | POT 21.0%
BBL 2016/2017 Results File > bbl-16-17-cricket-results-reading-the-play
21 winners / 34 bets | Strike Rate 61.8% | Profit 14.48 units | POT 26.1%
BBL 2015/2016 Results File > bbl-15-16-cricket-results-reading-the-play
Further information and detail on our Big Bash Cricket offering here
Full game by game results and scorecard details for all Big Bash League games for the full season can be found at http://www.espncricinfo.com/ or here
Game Key Stats, Previews and Bet Details
Bet 2 units Scorchers to win BBL 06 $6.00 Luxbet / $5.50 elsewhere
Scorchers look to have long term advantage and I want to be with them as the title winner. They have plenty of experience at finals and titles in this comp, a healthy home track advantage and good balance across strike batting and bowling. They look stronger this season with the additions of Mitchel Johnson and Ian Bell and the likely advantage of getting numerous outings from the two Marsh brothers. They post good totals, defend them well, field well, unlikely to be hurt with many key outs across the season, proven finalists, look good long term value.
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Sixers
H2H, Played 9, Perth Scorchers 6, Sydney Sixers 3. At the WACA, Played 2, Scorchers 1, Sixers 1
It’s the 3rd time the Scorchers and Sixers have met in the Grand Final, with both sides having won 1 each previously
The Scorchers are appearing in their 11th Final (most of any side) and their 5th Grand Final, while it’s the 7th Final for the Sixers (3rd most appearances) and their 3rd Grand Final
The Scorchers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Sixers
The Scorchers have the best home record in the BBL, winning 20 of their 30 games (67%), they also have the best home ground when setting a total, winning 13 of 19 (68%)
The Sixers have the best away record in the BBL, winning 18 of their 28 matches (64%)
The Scorchers have won 5 of their 7 Finals matches played at the WACA
The Scorchers have hit 28 six’s at home this season, averaging 5.8 six’s per match, which is their best home season average yet
There have been 712 boundaries hit at the WACA, which is the most of any venue used in the BBL
The Sixers have won 4 of their 5 away games this season and in all 5 games they have batted 2nd
The Sixers are playing in a Final at the WACA for just the 2nd time, their other Final at the ground was when they won the Grand Final in the inaugural season of the BBL
The team chasing a total has won the last 6 BBL Finals matches
The away team has won the last 10 straight when chasing down a total
The team batting 2nd has won 65% of matches this season, that’s the highest winning percentage in the 6 seasons of the BBL
These two sides have been the form sides of BBL since it first started, contesting multiple finals together and between them. The Scorchers have a healthy recent record over their opponent winning 6 of the last 7 meetings, and as we know a healthy home record with a 67% record here the biggest of any BBL side.
How this pitch plays and the toss are going to be significant issues. As we saw last Tuesday night the pitch is one reused from last weekend and had also had the Womens BBL game on it and looked a bit sticky and playing slow, this will be the same track for the final. What water and work they then put into it will be interesting, should it really dry out and turn into a track suiting slow and or spinners may well be a new influence.
Also, it should be noted the team chasing has held a significant advantage, the last 6 BBL finals have been won by the team chasing while this has also been the trend this season in BBL with 65% of the chasers also going on to win.
The Scorchers now lose Shaun Marsh (rep duties in NZ) but do get two new quality inclusions into their 13 man squad with Behrendorff and Bancroft called up off injury time out, both positive ins. It should be noted that Behrendorff also has a very good strike record v a number of the Sixers key batsman, including Henriques.
As noted previously with the Scorchers their advantage has always been depth and balance, they bat down to #10 and they have a quality bowling line up with strike, economy and mixture of quick and slow options. Mitch Johnson has been on fire through the last 10 days, let’s hope he can produce one more quality offering like last Tuesday here for this.
Sixers have now dropped Munro and called up Thorton, the former has failed to produce as a mid term key OS signing, potentially leaving them a little weaker into the last key match.
The Sixers are scrappers, they like a fight, they always seem to be in the contest somehow, yet rarely seem to offer what looks their potential best. They have bowled first at both of their last two key wins and restricted their opponents to low scores of 156 and then 167, yet then struggled to chase these totals with numerous middle order issues (which we know can be no surprise). Should they bat first they also have the same questions in posting big scores, consistently spluttering through their middle order.
What we don’t know is how the pitch stands up and plays, or the odd vagaries of 20/20 cricket, but if the form does stand up and the Scorchers play to their best on a fair wicket it’s hard to see them being beat. They have this significant advantage at home and depth down their list with the bat or with the ball to cope with pressure, key game changes or swings and to be able to balance up and go again.
The total 6’s mark is set at 10.5, I would be playing this under. The Scorchers lose S Marsh up front, the Sixers are not noted big hitters, this looks a game of pressure and a questionable playing pitch, reaching 11 looks a major risk.
Having been with the Scorchers as my outright long term bet since the start to this tournament there is no reason to change anything or bet on this event. For those looking for any single investments for just this game then the Scorchers still look value to win at $1.80, should the Sixers bat second and chase you might look to lay off or save and as an individual play I do like the Total 6’s under 10.5
Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers
H2H, Played 6, Brisbane Heat 2, Sydney Sixers 4. At the Gabba, Played 4, Heat 0, Sixers 4
The away team has won all 6 of the previous clashes between the Heat and the Sixers
The Sixers have the best away record in the BBL, winning 17 of their 27 matches (63%)
The Heat have lost 4 of their last 5 matches played at the Gabba, including the last 3 straight
The Sixers have won 3 of their 4 away games this season and in all 4 games they have batted 2nd
The team batting 1st has won only 6 of the last 16 matches played at the Gabba
There have been 12 or more six’s hit in 10 of the last 12 matches played at the Gabba
The Heat have hit 32 six’s from 4 home games this season, at an average of 8, the best in the BBL
The Gabba has the highest average for total match 6’s at 11.4 and rates 2nd for total match 4’s with an average of 25.2
It’s the 1st Final to be played at the Gabba, while the Heat have played in 2 Finals previously and won them both
The Sixers have played in 5 Finals, losing 2 and winning 3, all 3 of those wins were when playing away
The team chasing a total has won the last 4 BBL Finals
Only once in the last 6 Finals matches have the match 6’s totaled more than 10
Heat play at home, but also have a key in here in Bradree who has been missing for numerous weeks with a hamstring tear, and for mine he is a huge in, their best bowler who can quickly slow the game down, force risks, take wickets and bowl with quality economy.
Both these sides have limped into the finals, the Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 home games and needed results to go the right way last weekend for them to quality and then end up with a home semi, but at least they have been in these recent contests up to their eye balls including a near win (last ball) last Friday night when chasing down a big total of 199. The downside is they were flogged around the park in allowing such a high final total to the Renegades, which is why Bradree’s in becomes very important.
The Sixers are an enigma. They promise so much on paper and have the potential to go off like a fire cracker and belt 200 in quick time, yet rarely deliver. Having put the Stars on the ropes last Saturday night in rolling them cheap for 156, and up against a bowling line up without 4 key bowlers they almost fumbled the result crumbling quickly to 6-97 before Abbott and Botha were able to rescue them – and again it should be noted against a meek bowling attack (far easier than it could have been). They just don’t build big or consistent partnerships down their batting line up, Lumb has failed to take off, Munro has done zero in two outings, Maddinson is yet to trouble anyone and Henriques has failed to make a big score in his last 7 outings after a big knock in game 1. Yet as already suggested should most of them fire it could be huge.
It’s guess work when and if the Sixers fire. I have much more confidence the Heat have runs in them, setting or chasing, and the important in of Bradree is a significant plus.
Total 6’s is again set at 13.5 for this ground, but also a tricky risk. The Sixers have not been a big hitting side and have not racked up big 6 totals, but that also has much to do with their inconsistent batting offerings. At this ground I’d suggest the Heat are a likely 5 to 7 x 6’s offering with no Lynn. If I had more confidence in the Sixers contributing the overs would be the play, but looks best left alone. If I had to I’d play under.
I think the market has it about right and an even play with pretty much $1.90 each take your pick. The Sixers are consistent guess work – knowing if and when they fire, the Heat get a key in and have shown much more consistency in posting or chasing decent totals, I lean their way for a small interest.
Bet 1 unit Heat H2H $1.90 William Hill / $1.85 Sportsbet
Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars
H2H, Played 10, Perth Scorchers 5, Melbourne Stars 5. At the WACA, Played 6, Scorchers 4, Stars 2
The Stars have won the last 4 clashes with the Scorchers, including the last 2 meetings at the WACA
The home team has won 7 of the 10 clashes between the Scorchers and Stars
Only twice in the 10 previous meetings have the match six’s totaled more than 11 at an average of 7.6
The Stars have won 6 of their last 7 games played without the home ground advantage
The Scorchers have the best home record in the BBL, winning 19 of their 29 games (66%), they also have the best home ground when setting a total, winning 13 of 19 (68%)
The Scorchers have averaged 6 six’s per match at home this season, which is their best home season average yet
The Stars have hit 70 x 4’s on the road this season at an average of 17.5, the best in the BBL
The away team has won 63% of the matches during the regular season (21 of 32), which is the highest winning percentage for the away teams since the Big Bash began
It’s now 10 consecutive wins for the away team, while they have also won the last 9 straight when chasing down a total
Scorchers finish top of the table and host the first semi final 1st v 4th at home. They come off a relatively soft win away over the Hurricanes, chasing down 134 in just 13.5 overs, and are able to retain the same squad for this game.
I thought there were 3 positives out of the Scorchers win: Johnson’s bowling 2/15 at 3.75 an over, he has really started to hit his straps in these last few games; Shaun Marsh’s sharp knock (57 off 34) where he looked in nice touch; and the return of Voges and he hitting a few nice shots. These three alone are International class and add quality depth to performance.
The Stars have been hardly done by with their run of key outs through the last 10 days and they are pretty much none the better here with them only getting Stoinis back, potentially a major help with both ball and bat but they then still remain without Zampa, Faulkner, Maxwell and Handscombe – again huge outs. They fell away quickly in the middle order when batting last Saturday night with no one outside their top 3 hitting double figures, and where then punished in the field when short on bowling strike and depth, after having the Sixers in deep trouble the game then again got away from them quickly.
This is BBL and anything can happen, but the Stars are going to need some big contributions when batting from a few of their four senior men left in Quiney, Wright, Pietsesen and Hussey to be posting something like 170 to 180 and then be able to bowl competitively at it. That then is their next issue, with the loss of 4 key bowlers unless we see a terrible collapse its hard to see how the Stars contain the Scorchers batting.
Scorchers current price looks generous and with the squads only being announced late today I would suggest once more commonly known and the fact that the Stars are only getting one player back this price is likely to be heavily bet.
Bet 2.5 units Scorchers H2H $1.70 Sportsbet / $1.67 Unibet
Perth Scorchers vs Hobart Hurricanes – Blundstone Arena
The Scorchers will go level with the Heat on 10 points should they beat Hobart today, however will need a need a convincing win to go above the Heat. If the Scorchers lose, then we are guaranteed a top two finish.
Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers – The MCG
The Stars will secure top spot if they beat the Sixers, while they could finish out of the four if they suffer a massive loss. If the Stars lose then the Heat should finish in the top two and host a semi-final. A Sixers win would see them secure a finals spot.
The top two sides will host semi-finals on Tuesday the 24th and Wednesday the 25th of January.
1st vs 4th
2nd vs 3rd
Melbourne Stars v Sydney Sixers
H2H, Played 5, Melbourne Stars 4, Sydney Sixers 1
The Stars have recorded 4 consecutive wins over the Sixer’s, with their only loss coming from the very 1st meeting in 2011
Only once in the 5 previous meetings have the total match six’s finished higher than 9, with an average of 7.6
The Stars have been the most successful home team when chasing a total, winning 11 of 16 (69%)
While the Sixers have the best away record in the BBL, winning 16 of their 26 matches (62%)
Sydney’s winning record on the road improves to 71% when they have chased a total, winning 10 of 14
There have been 201 six’s hit at the MCG in the BBL at an average of 7.7, which is the lowest average for all of the current grounds used
Only 2 of the last 17 matches at the MCG have totaled more than 12
I think the markets have this wrong, and the Stars ($1.85) priced on reputation and not their team list today as they now lose a further two key bowlers in Zampa and Stoinis and already have key rep outs in Faulkner, Maxwell, Handscombe. So that’s 5 key rep outs into today’s game….
The Sixers were poor last start last Saturday when flogged by the Thunder but had some excuse as they batted first on a shite wicket which had previously been used and then rerolled and worked to use again, proving a very sticky and slow track early and the Sixes compounded. A fairer track here at the MCG should see an improved offering.
Prior to their last start loss the Sixers had won 3 of their prior 4 and looked a much better balanced squad with Bird and Lyon into their bowling line up. They have also added a new signing in NZer Colin Munro a noted big hitter (but failed first up last Saturday).
For mine the Sixers look a much stronger line up, balanced and have some depth, against an opponent with a disrupted and weakened list. The Sixers look great value at $2.00
I again like the total 6’s play at this ground. The MCG currently has the lowest average for total match 6’s at 7.8 and only 2 of the last 17 matches at the ground have topped 12. The 3 games here this season have delivered totals of 3, 6 and 7 x 6’s. The market is again set at 9.5 and again looks a risk.
Bet 1.5 units Sixers H2H $2.07 CrownBet / $2.00 Sportsbet
Bet 1.5 units Total 6’s under 9.5 $2.00 Unibet / $1.83 Sportsbet
Hobart Hurricanes v Perth Scorchers
H2H, Played 6, Hobart Hurricanes 2, Perth Scorchers 4
The Scorchers have won the previous 4 clashes with the Hurricanes, including the last 2 meetings at Blundstone Arena
The team batting 1st has won 5 of the 6 meetings between the Hurricanes and the Scorchers
Only once in the 6 encounters have the total match six’s finished higher than 10
The Hurricanes have lost 4 of their last 5 at home, while they have won only 2 of their last 8 at home when chasing a total
The Scorchers have hit just 6 six’s this season when playing away which is the lowest number for an away side
Perth have been the most successful away team over the last 3 seasons, winning 10 of their 14 matches, including winning 3 of 4 batting 2nd and 7 of 10 batting 1st
Only twice in the previous 21 matches played at Blundstone Arena have the total match six’s totaled more than 11, with an average of 8.5
Blundstone Arena has the highest average for boundaries hit per game at 26.9 and 8 of the last 11 at the ground have totaled 27 or more
It’s now 8 consecutive wins for the away team, while they have also won the last 7 straight when chasing down a total
Both sides have something to play for here, while the Scorchers can afford to lose and still progress into the finals a convincing win can still secure a home semi-final (and run rate in this game could well be important). The Hurricanes need to win, and win by a big margin to mathematically make the finals, so batting well and potentially quickly will be their focus. They showed in their last effort in chasing down the new record total of 222 that they can hit and they can post a big score, and clearly they have unearthed a likely new big hitting star in young McDermont.
This game will be played mid-afternoon and so we should see a dry track suitable for batting and runs.
The Scorchers come off a shocker when trounced by the Stars last start, and while I expect that they probably win here I see no value in a price under $1.70 or there abouts where the Hurricanes do come off a very positive win and play at home.
I expect we will see plenty of runs here with numerous scenarios suggesting such, afternoon game on good track, both sides conscious of posting big totals and quick run rates, Scorchers wanting to win Hurricanes needing a big total or quick chase to be any show. I think there are two angles to play into this outcome, the total number of boundaries and the team total of 6’s. Two of the last 3 games at this ground have seen high boundary totals, well in excess of the mark set today, the other was a low scoring game with a low total and slow chase. The Hurricanes also have a batting list of hitters capable of multiple 6’s and are likely to want to score quickly here, where as the Scorchers have batting strength but are not noted big hitters and offer the lowest number of 6’s for any team when on the road.
Scorchers likely winners, looks a game with plenty of runs and boundaries and that’s where I want to play.
Bet 1 unit Total number of 4’s over 27.5 $1.87 Sportsbet
Bet 1.5 units Hurricanes team to hit most number of 6’s $2.25 Unibet / CrownBet
Brisbane Heat v Melbourne Renegades
H2H, Played 6, Brisbane Heat 2, Melbourne Renegades 4
The Renegades have won the last 3 clashes with the Heat, including the only previous meeting at the Gabba
Brisbane have lost 8 of their last 10 at the Gabba when defending a total
There have been 12 or more six’s hit in 9 of the last 11 matches played at the Gabba
The Heat have hit 23 six’s from 3 home games this season, at an average of 7.7
The Renegades have won 4 of their last 5 matches played away from home
The away teams have now won 7 consecutive matches, a new BBL record
The away team has also won the last 7 matches when chasing a total
The Gabba continues to have the best average of all the grounds for total match six’s at 11.2, while it rates 2nd for boundaries, with an average of 25.2
Clearly form has meant little of late in this tournament with results over the last week seeing warm favs off winning form then offering little next start – Thunder, Stars, Scorchers and Sixers the most recent and obvious examples. This run has been most unlike recent BBL seasons where both home and away favs across all season long games have averaged winning near 60% which is getting close to the mark (and consistency) we see in sports like NRL or AFL. BBL is a unique sporting contest in itself, that’s certainly the case this season with this roller-coaster of form, upsets and now with just 3 games remaining the top 4 is still undecided and there is no real clear cut team to beat.
The Heat have their last H/A game at home in front of another sell-out crowd, and come here off a very positive mid-week surprise away win over the Stars. Against a good batting line up they produced probably their best bowling effort for some time with an economy rate of 6.9, taking key early wickets and then restricting their opponents to a meek 138. Even with McCullum and Lynn missing it was a soft run chase done with near 2 overs to spare. They are now assured of a semi-final spot, but a win here should also then secure them home advantage, so plenty to play for, plus they get McCullum back.
Not a lot changes with the Renegades, they got home mid week with a win over the Strikers but as always should have done it far more comfortably, mid term they looked set to post 200 or more yet were then contained to 171, this probably the third time they have looked set for a big score but then fallen away (they also posted a new record total of 222 v Hurricanes). Brisbane is normally a nice batting track with average scores of around 170, so their batting strengths and short boundaries should be suited here with the likes of Harris, Finch, White and Ferguson.
As mentioned previously this ground has shown a distinct advantage to the run chaser with 12 of the last 15 (80%) chasers winning, the Scorchers defied this last game on the back of one of the best bowling offerings this season.
The strength of these two sides is in their batting, while the Renegades have more often than not been belted in the field. Clearly Lynn is a major out for the Heat but to date in a tournament of inconsistency they have been the most consistent winning 5 of 7 and look significant value as the outsider here.
This ground normally suits the big hitters and high 6’s totals. We got it right last start playing under the 13.5 mark (v Scorchers) where it looked a tight contest and we had Lynn missing. This looks a far looser game, the Renegades have hitters but then also a bowling line up that can be hit, McCullum is back and we have seen more positive batting (and 6’s) from Heazlett, Peirson, Burns and Ross of late. This ground averages 11.2 x 6’s a game, 9 of the last 11 games here have delivered 12 of more x 6’s, with an expected good batting track and game total score around 330 to 350 then 14 x 6’s looks very likely.
Bet 1 unit Heat H2H $2.05 Tabsportsbet
Bet 1.5 units Total 6’s over 13.5 $1.95 Sportsbet
Sydney Thunder v Adelaide Strikers
H2H, Played 6, Sydney Thunder 3, Adelaide Strikers 2, No Result 1
It’s more than 3 years since the Strikers last beat the Thunder, with their last win coming in the 13/14 season
The Strikers are yet to win on the road in BBL06, having lost their 3 previous away games
The Thunder have won only 1 of their last 5 games played at Spotless Stadium
There have been 12 or more six’s hit in only 3 of the 9 BBL games played at Spotless Stadium
Only once in the 6 previous meetings have the match six’s totaled more than 12
The chasing team has won 7 of the last 9 BBL matches, while the away team has won 10 of the last 12 matches when batting 2nd, including the last 8 straight
It’s now 6 consecutive wins for the away team, which equals the longest winning sequence for teams on the road
Short turn around for the Strikers from Monday night loss at home in away game Wednesday in Sydney, and now sitting at the bottom of the table with nothing to really play for. Their squad remains with the key outs of Head, Stanlake and Jordan, and offer a thin bowling line up, they should have been carved up by the Renegades last Monday night when on track for a 200 something score and easy win the visitors again fell apart in the middle order by their own doing, not the Strikers bowling.
Thunder have now won 3 straight and have an outside mathematical chance of making the finals. They were advantaged bowling first of a sticky SCG wicket last Saturday to then chase down a low score and come away with an easy win somewhat untested. They now play at home on what should be a much better track and have retained the same successful squad which has been building well together through these recent wins. They have decent batting depth (especially against this weakened Strikers bowling offering) and what looks much more bowling strike in Ahmed, Green, Watson, McKay and Brathwaite. The mid tournament OS replacements in Vince and Brathwaite have saved the Thunders season.
This looks a match up of the Thunder’s strong batting line up against a suspect Strikers bowling attack, I like the Thunder.
The total 6’s mark of 11.5 looks spot on, I have a slight lean to the under based on numbers and team line ups, but this is normally a fair batting track with likely scores in the vicinity of 170, if Dunk, Hodge and Weatherald do get going coupled with a likely 5 or 6 x 6’s from the Thunder then things get very close. Happy to stay out of that option and play the Thunder H2H.
Bet 2 units Thunder H2H v Strikers $1.70 Unibet / $1.67 Luxbet
Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat
Tuesday 17th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Melbourne Stars 2, Brisbane Heat 3
The team batting 1st has won 4 of the 5 previous clashes between the Stars and the Heat
The Stars have been the most successful home team when chasing a total, winning 11 of 16 (69%)
While the Heat have the best away record when defending a total, winning 9 of 14 (64%)
The Heat have won their last 5 matches played away from home, including a 56 run win over the Stars in their only other meeting at the MCG
Of all the venues used more than once in the BBL, the MCG currently has the lowest average for total match six’s at 7.8 and only 2 of the last 16 matches at the ground have topped 12
The chasing team has won 6 of the last 8 BBL matches
It’s now 5 consecutive wins for the away team
The Stars are very warm favs here ($1.50) given the critical key outs of Lynn and McCullum, clearly two of the best batsman in this tournament let alone the leading hitters for this teams success through the opening weeks.
While the Stars bowling line up remains without Zampa, Maxwell and Faulkner they retain a healthy batting list with depth, and against an only ordinary bowling line up from the Heat, plus their opponents then weakened batting strike power this looks a batting shoot out with the home side well favoured and the market price about right.
I do want to look at a total 6’s play. As noted in the key game stats – the MCG currently has the lowest average for total match 6’s at 7.8 and only 2 of the last 16 matches at the ground have topped 12. Further to this, the two games this season have only seen combined totals of 3 and 6 x 6’s, plus we then have two big hitters in Lynn and McCullum missing. The markets have this game set at 9.5 which looks a nice risk.
I think the other obvious play is the highest opening 6 run total. The Heat are going to have to re shuffle their top order list and the start / play without their two key hitters. The Stars have their top order in tact and led by Quiney, Wright and Pietersen should have a healthy advantage.
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s under 9.5 $1.79 Sportsbet / $1.72 Unibet
Bet 1.5 units Stars Highest Opening 6 Over Total $1.67 William Hill / $1.65 Unibet
Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Renegades
Monday 16th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Adelaide Strikers 3, Melbourne Renegades 2
The team batting 1st has won all of the previous 5 clashes between the Strikers and Renegades
The Strikers have won 6 of their last 8 matches played at the Adelaide Oval
The Renegades won 3 from 3 when chasing a total away from home last season
6 of the Strikers last 8 matches at the Adelaide Oval have resulted in total match six’s of 11 or more
The Strikers have scored more six’s than their opponent in 6 of their last 8 matches at the Adelaide Oval
The Adelaide Oval currently has the highest average for total match six’s (14.7), but has the lowest average for boundaries (23.3)
The away team has won 6 of the last 8 BBL matches, including the last 4 straight
Only twice in the last 11 BBL matches when the home team has batted 1st have they been able to defend the total
In 6 of the last 7 BBL matches the total match six’s have failed to top 10
Renegades come off the big high scoring game v Hurricanes where they posted a new record total (222) only to then have it run down. Clearly they have hitters who can knock up scores, but this wasn’t the first time where they have shown distinct weakness under pressure when bowling or fielding and an at times thin ordinary bowling line up. But their advantage remains having Finch and White recent past ODI reps surrounding by some handy batters.
The Strikers have recently lost Head and Stanlake to rep duties and Jordan with injury which has certainly shortened them right up with their low total (152) and loss to the Stars. They play their best at home, but with these key outs (each of the 3 handy batters and bowlers) and on what is normally a lovely batting track they certainly lose some strike.
Both sides currently sit at the bottom of the table and so don’t have too much to play for. This ground is normally one for decent 6 totals, but the mark set at 12.5 looks about right, if anything with the key batting outs for the Strikers I’d probably mean under.
As the last two games (and betting losses for us) has shown BBL form can be very much a rollercoaster, but with these two teams struggling with tehir bowling strike, economy and generally when under the pump, it’s not a game I want to get to interested with betting wise. Small bet with Renegades H2H, for those looking at other plays I lean to 6’s under 12.5 and Finch as a batting option to score a 50 (approx. $2.80 Luxbet plus options elsewhere).
Bet 1 unit Renegades H2H v Strikers $1.81 Unibet / $1.80 William Hill
Perth Scorchers v Melbourne Stars
Saturday 14th Jan
H2H, Played 9, Perth Scorchers 5, Melbourne Stars 4
The home team has won 7 of the previous 9 clashes between the Scorchers and the Stars
The team batting 1st has won 4 of the 5 clashes played at the WACA
Matches between the Scorchers and Stars average less than 8 six’s per game, with only 1 of the last 5 clashes topping 6
The Scorchers have the best home record in the BBL, winning 19 of their 28 games (68%)
Perth has won 13 of their 18 matches played at the WACA when defending a total (72%)
The Stars have hit more boundaries than any other side when playing away from home, averaging 13.2
Melbourne have won 5 of their last 6 games when playing without the home ground advantage
The Stars are ranked last for six’s hit this season, having cleared the fence on just 22 occasions at an average of 4.4
The Scorchers have batted 1st in all 3 of their home games this season and have set totals averaging 182
Scorchers return home off win over Heat in Brisbane. Stars come off a win over the Strikers but that now looks thin form and remain without Maxwell, Faulkner and Zampa.
I thought the key to the Scorchers win in Brisbane earlier this week was a significantly improved (and impressive) bowling performance, offering up an economy rate of 7.8 and strangling the Heat our of the game. They are very good at home winning 19 of their 28 games (68%) while the home team has a significant advantage when these two teams meet, the home side winning 7 of the last 9.
This ground is normally a strong batting track and produces high totals. While both teams bat down their list with their key outs the Stars look significantly weakened with strike and economy management in their bowling line up missing Zampa, Maxwell and Faulkner. I want to be with the Scorchers.
Bet 2 units Scorchers H2H v Stars $1.84 William Hill / $1.81 Sportsbet
Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder
Saturday 14th Jan
H2H, Played 10, Sydney Sixers 8, Sydney Thunder 2
The side batting 1st has won only 4 of the previous 10 clashes
After recording 4 consecutive losses, the Sixers have now won their last 2 matches at the SCG
The team chasing a score has only won 39% of matches at the SCG, compared to a combined 50% across all other venues
The Thunder have the worst road record in the BBL, winning just 33% of their matches and that percentage drops to just 27% when they have been 1st to bat
The Thunder have also lost 7 of their last 10 when batting 1st across all grounds
The Sixers have won only 6 of their 16 matches at the SCG when chasing a total
Only once in the previous 10 meetings have the total match six’s finished higher than 11
While only once in the last 11 matches played at the SCG have the total match six’s topped 11
The SCG averages 8.7 six’s per game, only the MCG ranks lower (based on venues where there has been more than 1 match played)
The Sixers have hit the fewest six’s as a home team (100), while no side has hit fewer six’s away from home than the Thunder (95)
Thunder lost their first 4 but with two new inclusions and Watson finally hitting a score they have now won tehir last two, the latest a win over the Hurricanes that doesn’t necessarily read as all that strong a formline. The Sixers have now won 3 of their last 4 and continues to look on the improve, they got key player return last game who then made a significant influence (Bird and Lyon) and now have a new key OS signing first up in Colin Munro (big batting Kiwi) who comes off some recent quality form. Munro is an interesting and potentially key signing coming off a t/20 century off 52 balls last week in an international for NZ v Bangladesh – that’s smart form for this and I would expect that he will probably bat 3 or 4 and only strengthen the Sixers line up further here and into the weeks ahead. Thunder have a key out with Cummings to miss.
I want to be with the Sixers, unlike many of the BBL sides their list keeps getting stronger by the week and with the inclusion of Munro they now field their strongest team.
Bet 2 units Sixers H2H v Thunder $1.68 CrownBet / $1.65 Unibet
Bet 0.5 unit Munro High Bat Sixers $6.00 Tabsportsbet
Melbourne Renegades v Hobart Hurricanes
Thursday 12th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Melbourne Renegades 4, Hobart Hurricanes 1
The Renegades have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium, as well as losing 6 of their last 7 when defending a total at the ground
The Renegades have also lost 9 of their last 11 across all venues when batting 1st
B2B losses for the Renegades to make it 3 losses from their last 4 starts, while the Hurricanes have lost 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8 on the road
The Hurricanes scored just 102 runs in their only previous match at Etihad Stadium, which is their lowest ever score when batting 1st
Away teams have lost 7 of the last 10 matches when batting 1st, while the Hurricanes have lost 8 of their last 11 away from home when setting a total
In the 5 previous clashes between the Renegades and Hurricanes the total match six’s have failed to top 11
Two teams with only two wins each both struggling to put some form together. The Hurricanes have made a couple of key changes to their squad to strengthen their bowling line up with the inclusion of pace-duo Sam Rainbird and Jake Reed omitting Tait and Rose – looks a positive move. Also, after being dropped for their last game I would not be surprised to see Sangakkara reinstated, he’s a key OS signing who’s been given a kick up the backside, they dearly need him back and to fire.
Trick game, both sides come off losing form (both lost their last two) yet for no real reason (like key positive team changes or alike) the Renegades have been posted as clear favs? At around the $1.70 mark, I think this should be $1.90 each take your pick.
The Hurricanes problem through the last few weeks when batting has been quick early wickets through their top order. On the rare occasions, they have started well they have then build commanding totals. The Renegades have similar issues, more so through their middle order. In trying to split these two a) I think the Hurricanes have shown they can play slow bowling well, and b) have potentially strengthened up their attack economy rate in excluding the expensive Tait and Rose.
This doesn’t look a game to get too deep into with any betting angle, these two batting line ups are both very much on trust. I have a slight lean to the Hurricanes, happy to have a small interest on that value.
Bet 1 unit Hurricanes H2H v Renegades $2.30 William Hill / Unibet
Brisbane Heat v Perth Scorchers
Wednesday 11th Jan
H2H, Played 7, Brisbane Heat 4, Perth Scorchers 3
The home team has won 5 of the 7 previous meetings, but the Scorchers are yet to win at the Gabba
The Scorchers have hit just 4 six’s this season when playing away which is the lowest number for an away side, while no home team has cleared the fence more often than the Heat with 20
The Heat have hit 6 or more six’s in 9 of their last 10 matches at the Gabba
Brisbane have lost 8 of their last 10 at the Gabba when defending a total
In the last 16 matches where the away team has been set a total, they have chased it down on 12 occasions
The Heat have the highest home average for six’s, having cleared the fence 134 times from 22 games
There have been 12 or more six’s hit in 9 of the last 10 matches played at the Gabba
Another contest with a long list of key team changes. The Heat have the significant loss of Lynn his power hitting has been sensational and to date had amassed more 6’s than many teams combined totals of 6’s so he is a major out. They had already lost Bradree their #1 bowler who has now been replaced with OS signing Tyrnal Mills (English left arm bowler). The Scorchers were already without Voges and Muirhead (both with injury) and now lose Mitch Marsh and Wiley to various rep commitments Cartwright returns from Test squad and Bresnan in the new OS replacement for Wiley.
The Heat were brutal in their 9 wicket defeat of the Scorchers early last week in Perth the home side setting a modest target of 173 which Lynn and McCullum tore apart with a 148 run partnership 21 boundaries and reached in just 14.4 overs – probably one of the more major thrashings of recent years in this tournament. What was also obvious was a poor bowling offering from the Scorchers in particular a preparedness to mix things up and try and change the game Langer (Scorchers coach) is astute he’s now had 9 days to work on this team and I’m sure there should be some subtle changes in approach
The key obvious question remains how do the Heat perform without out Lynn? To their benefit they still retain a very strong batting (and hitting) line up lead by McCullum (who must be due for a big score) Peirson Ross Burns Cutting and Wildermuth – so not the power house they have been as Lynn is something exceptional but still very strong and well advantaged on a normal super batting track and small ground. They still look a formidable line up and opponent.
The Scorchers are on trust for me right now I expect they will be better in a week or so as they get a couple of key bowlers returning from injury plus Voges their best would see them in this up to their ears but they still look possibly short on bowling strike should the Heat get going.
A further factor to keep in mind should you be looking to a various betting options late in the day is that the chasing team has won 11 of the last 13 games at this ground.
Looking for betting plays on this game? Even with Lynn out I still lean to the Heat, I still think they have the batting power and depth for runs while the Scorchers do also have batting depth they will miss Mitch Marsh and they lose a key strike bowler in Wiley – but given the distinct advantage to the chasing team at this ground I only want to back the Heat should they be batting second. While I also still expect plenty of big hitting even without Lynn the markets have set the mark at approx. 14 which I think is a risk, I have this pegged at somewhere like 10 to 12.
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s under 13.5 $1.97 Sportsbet / $1.75 Ubet
Following the coin toss should Heat be the chasing team
Bet 1 unit Heat H2H tba
We will send an update sms once the toss is done and who is batting first and chasing is known and the best H2H bet options
Heat won toss Bet 1 unit Heat H2H $2.10 Luxbet
Melbourne Stars v Adelaide Strikers
Tuesday 10th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Melbourne Stars 3, Adelaide Strikers 2
The home team has won 4 of the previous 5 clashes between the Stars and the Strikers
The Stars won 10 of their 1st 12 games at the MCG but have recorded only 5 wins from their last 12 at the venue
The Strikers have won 7 of their last 10 away games but are still looking for their 1st road win this season
Of all the venues used more than once in the BBL, the MCG currently has the lowest average for total match six’s at 7.9 and only 2 of the last 15 matches at the ground have topped 12
Only 1 of the 5 games between the Stars and Strikers have resulted in total match six’s of more than 12
The Strikers are looking for B2B wins for the 1st time in 6 matches, while the Stars will be trying to do the same for the 1st time this season
This is a game impacted by quite a number of key and critical team outs. The Stars lose Zampa, Maxwell and Faulkner to rep duties but importantly get Handscomb back. They have now added low profile players Liam Bowe (leg-spinner), Cameron Gannon and Seb Gotch to their 13 man squad. The Strikers have lost Head and Stanlake to rep duties and also now have a further key out with Jordan injured. They have added Ludeman, promising quick Wes Agar and NZ leg-spinner Ish Sodhi to their 13 man squad.
With these outs both sides lose 3 key bowlers, but I think the Strikers look harshly dealt as their depth and batting has also looked thin and they now lose their #3 in Head and middle order quality in Jordan. Worse still though these three players have headed up their bowling attack playing key roles, in particular Stanlake and Jordan for both economy and wicket taking strike power.
While the Stars will certainly miss these three bowlers and the quality of their replacements at this level is very much unknown they still retain a very strong top 6 batting line up, with Quiney, Wright, Pietersen, Hussey, Handscomb and Harper all capable of big scores. They did this last weekend when knocking up a big total of 200 when batting first to then have the Renegades crumble under pressure in the chase. I think this is the key to this game, this stronger batting list and depth and now to be up against a weakened bowling attack, the Stars should be able to either set a big total and build pressure on their opponent or be able to chase down what ever might be set for them.
This game looks a batting contest, I want to be with the Stars top 6.
Bet 2 units Stars H2H v Strikers $1.68 Luxbet / $1.67 William Hill
Sydney Sixers v Melbourne Renegades
Monday 9th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Sydney Sixers 3, Melbourne Renegades 2
The Sixers have lost 4 of their last 5 matches played at the SCG
The Renegades have lost their last 3 matches when chasing a total, but they have won 4 of their last 5 played without the home ground advantage
The team chasing a total has won only 4 of the last 14 BBL matches played at the SCG
Sydney have hit more six’s than there opponent in 6 of their last 7 matches at the SCG when batting 1st
The Renegades have hit the fewest six’s in the BBL as an away side with 92 at an average of 4.4
The Sixers have hit the fewest six’s as a home team with 97 at an average of 4.2 per game
The SCG averages just 8.7 six’s per game and only 1 of the last 9 matches at the ground have topped 11
The Renegades have been highly disappointing over their last few outings and folded like a 3 legged card table against the Stars in their last outing, and problem that has been exposed now a number of times. Additionally I expected much more from their bowling when on a fair track they were carted everywhere. They have made a couple of key changes, but possibly more shuffling their list than strengthening their line up. Hard to trust.
The Sixers come off a key win over the Heat and importantly get three key player inclusions here with the return of Test reps (three bowlers) in Bird, Lyon and O’Keefe and play on the at times sticky Sydney wicket often suited to slow bowlers. I think the inclusion of these 3 bowlers is key, strengthens an already winning team and offers strike and potency in both bowling and batting, and I would have thought set the Sixers as clear $1.75 favs yet the markets have them equal.
For those looking at the Total 6’s market, the markets look about right, under 11 is the probable play but both these sides do have hitters and this ground more often than not is delivering total scores toward 360 and upwards which is also going favour big hitting, I’m happy to stay out.
Bet 2 units Sixers H2H v Renegades $1.95 CrownBet / $1.92 Sportsbet
Hobart Hurricanes v Sydney Thunder
Sunday 8th Jan
H2H, Played 5, Hobart Hurricanes 5, Sydney Thunder 0
The Thunder are yet to record a victory over the Hurricanes, having lost all 5 clashes previously
The Hurricanes have lost 3 of their last 4 matches played at Blundstone Arena
The Thunder have won just 3 of 12 matches on the road when defending a total
The Hurricanes have won 60% of their matches at home when batting 1st (rank 2nd), but have won only 38% of their home games when chasing a total (rank 2nd last)
The Thunder have the worst road record in the BBL, winning only 30% of their away matches
Only twice in the previous 20 matches played at Blundstone Arena have the total match six’s totaled more than 11, with an average of 8.45
No side has hit fewer six’s away from home than the Thunder with 88 at an average of 3.8
Blundstone Arena has the highest average for boundaries hit per game at 26.8 and 7 of the last 10 at the ground have totaled 27 or more
Another tricky game match up with two sides in desperate need of another win to keep their season alive. The Hurricanes off a poor crumbling effort last Friday night in Adelaide return back home and have a healthy 100% record (5 games) over the visitors, the Thunder off a surprise last ball win over the Stars. The Thunder have lost the hero of that game Morgan to English representation and days prior Russell to injury but they have now sure’d up two capable OS replacements in internationals Englishman James Vince and West Indian Carlos Brathwaite, plus they also get McKay back from short term injury out – this now possibly their strongest team list season to date.
There’s risks to both of these sides, they have both offered paper thin batting offerings on a number of occasions and neither offer potency or strike in with their bowling line ups. Both have a few key people due for runs, in particular Watson of the Thunder, and with their 3 teams changes look a better batting risk than they have been. I have a slight lean to the Thunder with these changes, but as suggested a tricky game.
The betting play I do like here is the total 6’s under 12.5 – the Hurricanes are not known hitting team averaging just 4.8 at home and 4.1 in all games while the Thunder have a similar record with an average of just 3.8 per game and will be without Morgan (a good hitter). 13 x 6’s looks a risk and I’m against it.
Bet 2 units Total 6’s under 12.5 $1.76 Sportsbet
Melbourne Renegades v Melbourne Stars
Saturday 7th Jan
H2H, Played 10, Melbourne Renegades 3, Melbourne Stars 7
Last week’s win by the Renegades was their 1st over the Stars in 7 clashes
The Renegades have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium, as well as losing 6 of their last 7 when defending a total
The Stars are ranked last for six’s hit this season, having cleared the fence on just 11 occasions
Etihad Stadium ranks 4th for total six’s hit, with 224 at an average of 10.2
The Stars have won their last 3 matches played at Etihad Stadium
Only once in the Stars last 10 away games have the total match six’s topped 11 with an average of 7.8
The Renegades have averaged 4.9 six’s an innings at Etihad Stadium from their last 10 at the ground
The team chasing has run down the total in 10 of the last 13 BBL matches, including the last 5 straight
Renegades at home with 2 wins from 3 games to date including a win result over the Stars, the later after opening one of the warm favs for this comp sit 1 from 3. The Renegades have a key change to their line up (including the long term loss of key OS purchase Bravo) now strengthening their bowling line up with the return of Pattinson. The Stars have also made a key change with the big hitting Quiney back in after short term injury out.
While these two look closely matched the Stars come off two losses where their batting list has shown some holes, losing early wickets and then lacking major partnerships down their order, plus they have also shown a dislike for quality slow / spin bowlers with the Renegades two quality men in Hogg and Narine causing them numerous problems last week. I like the balance of the Renegades, in particular the control and fire power that Hogg and Narine offer, now to be supported with Pattinson’s return.
Bet 1 unit Renegades H2H $2.05 CrownBet / $2.02 William Hill
Adelaide Strikers v Hobart Hurricanes
Friday 6th Jan
H2H, Played 6, Adelaide Strikers 3, Hobart Hurricanes 2, No Result 1
The Hurricanes have lost 7 of their last 10 away from home when batting 1st
The Strikers have won 5 of their last 7 matches played at the Adelaide Oval
Hobart has the 2nd worst away record in the BBL since 2011, winning 43% of their matches on the road
5 of the Strikers last 7 matches at the Adelaide Oval have resulted in total match six’s of 11 or more
The Strikers have scored more six’s than their opponent in 5 of their last 7 matches at the Adelaide Oval
Adelaide has the highest winning percentage at home since the 2015/2016 season (71%)
Well the Heat and in particular Lynn certainly bent the Scorchers and I over last night and gave us a whacking. That is probably one of the most amazing power hitting innings in this format of the game that we have seen for many years, Lynn has a freakish eye, stunning power, rides his luck and can just tear apart an attack (and scoreboard). The Scorchers bowled poorly I thought and played into his hands, Lynn’s strike rate drops by about 40% when up against quality slow/spin bowling yet the Scorchers for the most part continued to feed he exactly what he loves. The Scorchers also fell well short with the bat, they should have ended with something more like 200 against that thin bowling list, but they were then comfortably blasted off the park.
Strikers v Hurricanes sees a rematch of Monday’s game but this time in Adelaide where the weather is very hot and clear and this track normally offers up plenty of runs and some big hitting. The Strikers retain the same squad while the Hurricanes have included Tait although still doubtful with injury. The Strikers played to their recent form and again folded terrible through their top and middle order again in this most recent innings posting another humble score of 143, comfortably chased down by the Hurricanes. As I suggested prior to that last game, if we peel back the Strikers form their only win should well have also been a loss but for a shocking collapse by the Sixers when chasing a very modest total, so at 1/4 second bottom on the table and a negative net run rate although back a home is surprising to see they put up as favs. Sure, if their top order get going they can post a decent total but they haven’t and the individual form of a number of them continues to look very scratchy.
As mentioned in the preview to the prior contest the Hurricanes hadn’t been that far away in their recent games and the return of Christian to the bowling crease (5/14) has only strengthened their bowling attack. I think the market is upside down and there’s no reason why the Hurricanes can’t again give this a shake.
This game does look another where hitting from both lists will play its part, with 5 of the last 7 games delivering 11 or more x 6’s, two batting line ups that if they get going the top orders of each are littered with hitters, a nice even batting track and short boundaries on either side. A total of 13 or more looks well within reach and a good risk to take on.
Bet 1 unit H2H Hurricanes $2.02 Unibet
Bet 2 unit Total 6’s over 13.5 $1.83 Unibet
Perth Scorchers v Brisbane Heat
Thursday 5th Jan
H2H, Played 6, Perth Scorchers 3, Brisbane Heat 3
The Scorchers are the most successful home team in the BBL, winning at 69%, their strike rate is even better when they set a total, winning 12 of 16 (75%)
Only once in the last 9 matches at the WACA have the total match 6’s topped 9
There have been more boundaries hit at the WACA than at any other ground (623)
The Heat have won their last 4 matches on the road, 3 of those wins were when defending a total
No side has hit more 6’s then the Heat when playing away from home, with 153 at an average of 6.7
The Scorchers have won 10 of their last 12 at home when setting a total
As suggested with the early sms message two days ago, the likely out of Badree (now confirmed) and Lynn playing with a nagging shoulder injury surely brings the Heat back to earth here. Bradee is a major out, he is their best bowler and one of the best in this competition, and for a side who already struggle with a weak bowling list they now become very exposed especially against a batting list as strong and deep as the Scorchers. The home side also now get the return of all rounder Agar following his availability post Test match, so one side stronger the other considerably weaker. Scorchers certainly the team to be with.
Bet 2 units H2H Scorchers $1.77 CrownBet / $1.75 Sportsbet
Sydney Thunder v Melbourne Stars
Wednesday 4th Jan
H2H, Played 6, Sydney Thunder 3, Melbourne Stars 3
The away team has won 5 of the previous 6 clashes between the Thunder and the Stars
The Thunder remain as the only side yet to register a win and they also have the worst home record in the BBL, winning only 5 of their 22 games at home
Sydney have lost their last 4 games played at Spotless Stadium, while the Stars have won their last 4 road games
The Stars have the best road record in the comp when defending a total, winning 67% of their away games
The Stars have hit 120 six’s from their 23 away games since the BBL commenced, giving them an average of 5.2, ranking them 2nd behind the Heat
The Thunder have the lowest home average for boundaries, finding the fence 199 times at an average of 9 per match
Stars look justifiably warm favs here. They come off a close loss and again have a strong batting list with depth on offer, while the Thunder are 0/4 and have a further key out with McKay now to miss. The Thunder went into this season missing Kallis, Hussey and Khawaja with thin replacements and have then seen their key experienced marque players (Watson and Russell) offer little to date. Those around them have been exposed and both their batting and bowling lines ups have folded poorly. For mine the market price looks right and the Stars look the winner.
Aside from the H2H offering I think the total number of 6’s at 12.5 looks a significant risk. As previously mentioned the Star’s are not noted 6 hitters, while a few of their top order missed getting a start against the Renegades they still only managed just the 1 x 6 in game two, and only 6 x 6’s in game one with 5 of those coming from Quiney who has made way for Pietersen. The Thunder have similar form lines when it comes to big hitting, and unless Watson was to finally take off they too look a significant risk. The Thunder have also failed to hit any decent totals to date setting 159 and 157 and folding for 130 and 127 when chasing, low scores significantly lower the focus or need for big hitting. I rate 13 or more 6’s a significant risk.
Bet 2 units H2H Stars $1.60 Pinnacle / $1.57 William Hill
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s under 12.5 $1.80 Unibet / $1.76 Sportsbet
Brisbane Heat v Sydney Sixers
Tuesday 3rd Jan
H2H, Played 5, Brisbane Heat 2, Sydney Sixers 3
The away team has won all 5 of the previous clashes between the Heat and the Sixers
The Heat have an average record at the Gabba, winning only 9 of their 21 matches played at the ground
The Sixers have the best away record in the BBL, winning 15 of their 25 matches (60%)
Despite their positive away record, the Sixers have lost 3 of their last 4 most recent games on the road, while they have also lost 3 of their last 4 away from home when defending a total
The Heat have the highest home average for six’s, having cleared the fence 125 times from 21 games
The Gabba is now ranked 1st for most six’s per venue, with 236 at an average of 11.2 and there have been 12 or more six’s hit in 8 of the last 9 matches at the ground
The Heat have hit more six’s than any other side in the BBL, both as a grand total and for this season to date, 278 and 31
In the last 12 matches where the away team has been set a total, they have chased it down on 9 occasions
For multiple reasons there is no reason to touch this game with a bet. Brisbane was smashed with heavy storms overnight and it is now again raining and forecast for more likely showers and possible storms into the afternoon and evening, so any play; a shortened version or stop start and or the factoring in of the complicated duckworth lewis maths equations could prove a nightmare, let alone try and preview and forecast what might well unfold.
For the record I’m still not sold on the Heat and think they have way too much hype factored into their coverage and market pricing at present. The Sixers have been terrible, folded quickly against the Strikers but would probably be best suited if batting first with less pressure and able to set a score. Under normal conditions tho this track and ground has highly favoured those chasing with 11 of the last 13 results going to those who have done so.
Lets have a lay day, a game best to watch if we see any play but not bet on.
Hobart Hurricanes v Adelaide Strikers
Monday 2nd Jan
H2H, Played 5, Hobart Hurricanes 1, Adelaide Strikers 3, No Result 1
The Hurricanes have lost 5 of their last 7 matches played at Blundstone Arena
Adelaide have won 7 of their last 9 games played without the home ground advantage and 4 of those 7 wins have come from 5 matches when chasing down a total
Hobart have hit 94 six’s at home, the fewest in the BBL for a home team
The Hurricanes have only 4 of their 12 matches at home when chasing down a total
Only once in the previous 19 matches played at Blundstone Arena have the total match six’s totaled more than 11
Blundstone Arena has the highest average for boundaries hit per game at 27.1
The Strikers have been very ordinary and clearly were very lucky to get away with their win on New Years Eve, having already collapsed themselves in posting a mere 152 the Sixers then did them a massive favour in then themselves falling apart to fold for a measly 104. I think in all the noise and joy of the Strikers surprise win the fact of how poor they were (and have been) has been lost, and that’s now wound into their price for this even as I can’t see how they are equal favs. Equally, although only winning 1 of 3 so far I’m not so sure that the Hurricanes have been that far away, they easily out played the Sixers, posted 188 v Stars and had some ordinary luck when only finishing with 173 v Heat, yet then had their opponents in some trouble before losing. The Hurricanes have shown some fight, both with the bat and ball, certainly far more than the poor middle to lower order offerings from their opponents here. Head has been in terrible form, Pollard has delivered nothing with the bat and Lehmann has offered zero (2 runs and two ducks to date).
I’m not rushing into a game with two teams 1/3 but I do think there looks much more up side with the Hurricanes. The Strikers have collapsed in their middle order in all three games and been very poor in the field in two of their three outings, I want to take them on again.
Bet 2 units Hurricanes H2H $1.97 William Hill / $1.95 CrownBet
Perth Scorchers v Sydney Thunder
Sunday 1st Jan
H2H, Played 5, Perth Scorchers 4, Sydney Thunder 1
Just 1 win for the Thunder from 5 matches against the Scorchers
The Thunder have the worst road record in the BBL, winning only 32% of their away matches
The Scorchers have the best home record in the BBL, winning 69% of their home games
There have been more boundaries hit at the WACA than at any other venue (623)
Only once in the last 8 matches played at the WACA, have the total match six’s totaled more than 9
The 3 previous clashes at the WACA have resulted in total match six’s of 7
The Thunder average just 4 six’s per game away from the home, the lowest average in the BBL
The Thunder have won just 3 of 11 matches on the road when defending a total
Scorchers off a last ball lucky win over Renegades but get the advantage of returning home to Perth after two away legs, they lose Agar to the Test squad but do have plenty of depth. The Thunder have now lost 3 from 3 and have been exposed for their patchy quality, their most recent loss a poor effort where firstly they could only manage 157 against one of the weaker bowling line ups (Heat) and then when getting their opponent on the ropes at 6-63 they couldn’t put the game away with Lynn belting them out of the result. While the Scorchers still have a questionable bowling attack against a quality batting list they don’t face that here, their long batting list and depth should prove the difference especially should they bat first I would expect they could knock up a big total and put decisive pressure on the Thunder’s thin middle order.
Bet 2 units Scorchers H2H $1.76 Sportsbet / $1.71 Pinnacle / $1.67 William Hill
Melbourne Stars v Melbourne Renegades
Sunday 1st Jan
H2H, Played 9, Melbourne Stars 7, Melbourne Renegades 2
6 consecutive wins for the Stars over the Renegades to make it 7 wins from 9 matches H2H
The MCG has the lowest average for total match six’s at 8 and only 2 of the previous 14 matches at the ground have totaled more than 12
Only once in their last 10 matches at the MCG have the Stars batted 1st
The Renegades have been a 50/50 proposition on the road, with 10 wins from 20 matches
No side has hit fewer six’s than the Renegades when playing away from home
The Stars have the best record in the BBL when chasing a total at home, winning 9 of 14 (64%)
The key team changes favour the Stars with them strengthened with the inclusion of Pietersen while the Renegades are heavily hit with the long term injury loss of their quality international all rounder in Barvo. The Stars have held a healthy long term advantage over their cross town rivals inning the last 6 straight and get their first game at home at the MCG, which with the drop in pitch should again see advantage to the key batsman. The Renegades will rue their last ball loss to the Scorchers earlier this week, but the way that game got away from them then compounded by with the loss only highlight their bowling and balance weakness and up against this strong long batting list of the Stars they certainly look up against it. The Stars chased down 188 with ease and only the loss of 3 wickets earlier this week, their batting strengths look the key advantage here again.
Bet 2 units Stars H2H $1.72 Sportsbet / William Hill
Adelaide Striker v Sydney Sixers
Saturday 31st Dec
H2H, Played 6, Adelaide Strikers 3, Sydney Sixers 3
The Sixers have won 2 of the last 3 meetings at the Adelaide Oval
The Strikers are yet to open their account, losing 2 from 2 and they have also lost their last 2 at home
The Adelaide Oval averages 10.5 six’s per game, which is the 2nd highest average of all the venues used in the BBL
4 of the Strikers last 6 matches at the Adelaide Oval have resulted in total match six’s of 11 or more
The Strikers have scored more six’s than their opponent in 4 of their last 6 matches at the Adelaide Oval
Adelaide has the highest winning percentage at home since the 2015/2016 season (67%)
The Sixers are the most successful road team in the competition when chasing a total, winning at 75%
Strikers could well have won both of their opening games, but didn’t and sit in some bother at 0/2 and needing to back themselves in here. The Sixers have a major key out with O’Keefe now selected in the Test squad, he has been key to their early bowling success and plays an equally key role batting middle order. The Sixers have won 2 from 3 and come off a smart tactical win over the Scorchers but I think this true batting track coupled with a desperate need to win position the Strikers well here, keen to be with them.
I also like the Strikers to win the powerplay opening 6 overs with the highest score, their top 3 can score quickly and like the ball coming on to the bat as we should see it here.
Bet 1 unit Strikers H2H $1.92 Luxbet / Crownbet
Bet 1 unit Strikers highest opening 6 overs total $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill / Bet365
Brisbane Heat v Hobart Hurricanes
Friday 30th Dec
H2H, Played 9, Brisbane Heat 3, Hobart Hurricanes 6
The Hurricanes have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Heat played at the Gabba
The Heat have lost 4 of their 6 matches played at the Gabba when chasing a total
Brisbane have won only 3 of their last 11 BBL matches played at the Gabba
Hobart has the 2nd worst away record in the BBL since 2011, winning 43% of their matches on the road
The Hurricanes have lost 5 of their last 8 on the road, 2 of their 3 wins were against the Heat
The Gabba has the highest total match runs average of all the grounds used in the BBL, with an average of 325 runs per game
The Gabba ranks 2nd for total match six’s, averaging 10.4 per game, while 7 of the last 8 at the ground have totaled 12 or more
This certainly looks a slog a thon with the key combinations of two teams top heavy with hitters; thin bowling quality (for both) and a pitch / ground where run making comes easy. Last season this ground averaged 366 total runs per game (4 games) while longer term it sits at 325, the 1st innings average across the last 12 digs an average of 170 yet in 10 of those 12 games the chasing side has run down the total – put simply it’s normally a batting paradise. So we are again likely to see plenty of runs the key is the likely match up in bowling and fielding, and while both sides offer up ordinary to poor line ups I think the Hurricanes looked the weaker of the two. Broad and Tait have already been expensive and on this track look cannon fodder to be belted and their support looks similar of this placid track, the Stars chased down 191 in just 17 overs for a soft win earlier this week. Aside from Badree the Heat also offer an only ordinary bowling line up, and they could well be 0/2 out of their first two games let alone then winning both. I have a slight edge to the Heat plus they’ll be playing at home in front of a big sell out crowd, small interest on them to win.
On this small ground, good wicket, likely big totals and two lists that can hit I expect we are going to see a long list of 6’s. The Heat on a nice batting track in Adelaide played in a game that saw 19 x 6’s last week while the Hurricanes have Paine, Short, Sangakkara (if he ever gets going again), Bailey and Christian who are also all 6 hitters so something toward 16 or more 6’s for mine looks highly likely.
Bet 1 unit Heat H2H $1.70 CrownBet / $1.68 Luxbet
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s over 14.5 $1.83 William Hill / $1.76 Unibet
Melbourne Renegades v Perth Scorchers
Thursday 29th Dec
H2H, Played 6, Melbourne Renegades 0, Perth Scorchers 5
The Scorchers are undefeated in 5 matches against the Renegades, including chasing down totals in the previous 2 matches played at Etihad Stadium
The Renegades have lost 5 of their last 6 matches at Etihad Stadium, as well as losing 5 of their last 6 when defending a total
The last 5 matches played at Etihad Stadium have resulted in total match runs of 310 or more
Very interesting game with two of the heavy weights of this competition, tactically this should also be a cracker. The Scorchers were outplayed by some sharp tactics in Sydney earlier this week in their decisive loss, with the Sixers choosing to bowl 5 of the opening 6 overs by their two spinners (Botha and O’Keefe) aware that both Scorcher openers in Klinger and Shaun Marsh favour seam or quick bowlers and the ball coming on to the bat. It worked a treat with the loss of both cheaply, slowing down dramatically the run rate an exposing the middle order under pressure (who folded). A sticky slow wicket helped, but the Sixers played some smart cricket. The Scorchers now remain on the road and into a match up against a Renegades bowling line up that has improved significantly, led by two quality spinners in Hogg and Narine and backed up with Tremain and Cooper. The Scorchers have made two important changes with Johnson and Cartwright now to play which will strengthen their bowling line up but up against the strong batting list and depth of the Renegades (Finch, Harris, White, Ferguson, Bravo and Cooper) they still look short given their key injury outs of their top 3 in Behrendorff & Paris (both could return in 2-3 wks) and Coulter-Nile (out for season).
The two batting line ups look a good match up, with somewhere around 160 to 170 the likely set and chase targets on this track. The Renegades do look to have the stronger, better balanced bowling line up led by their two quality spin bowlers and I think this looks the edge.
With the wet weather in Melbourne this week the likely pitch condition and pace could well be some risk, plus this looks a tight bowling and tactical game as opposed to any consistent big hitting. The Scorchers are not a noted big hitting team (only average 3 to 4 x 6’s a game) and could well be tightened up early against the spinners and accurate seamers while even when flogging the Thunder’s thin bowling offering the Renegades only hit 8 x 6’s, somewhat a stretch for them. I rate 13 or more 6’s a significant risk.
Bet 2 units Total 6’s under 12.5 $1.90 Unibet
Sydney Thunder v Brisbane Heat
Wednesday 28th Dec
H2H, Played 5, Sydney Thunder 1, Brisbane Heat 4
The Heat have won 4 of the 5 previous matches against the Thunder and they have also won 4 of their 5 matches played in Sydney
B2B away games for Brisbane who have lost 7 of their last 10 BBL matches played on the road, but their 3 wins have all come from their last 3 outings away from home
The Heat are yet to chase down a total of more than 150 when playing away from home
Shane Watson returns to strengthen the Thunder’s batting line up and leadership which they certainly need off two very ordinary offerings and defeats. The Heat come off a big hitting game one win in Adelaide with their top 4 batsman getting amongst the runs (and 11 x 6’s). I favour the Heat H2H but think the best betting play is the 6’s Total play over 12.5 with the combination of a suitable ground (last 3 games 11, 14 and 14 x 6’s); the big hitting Heat (12 x 6’s in total last wk) and the return of Watson and some likely desperation for a big knock from him off their two opening losses. Expect Heat will win.
Bet 2 units Total 6’s over 12.5 $1.90 Unibet / Bet365
Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers
Tuesday 27th Dec
H2H, Played 6, Sydney Sixers 2, Perth Scorchers 4
Sydney have lost their last 4 matches played at the SCG and only once in their last 10 at the ground have they scored more than 160 runs
The Scorchers have won their last 4 games at the SCG against the Sixers #homeawayfromhome
The team chasing a total has won only 3 of the last 13 BBL matches played at the SCG
Sydney have hit more sixes than there opponent in 6 of their last 7 matches at the SCG when batting 1st
Perth have won 7 of their last 9 on the road when batting 1st
Daniel Hughes remains a key out at the top of the order for Sixers, while Shaun Marsh is now available for the Scorchers and only strengthens an already long deep batting line up. The Scorchers batted strongly in their opening game v Strikers to knock up 197 off 20 and set up their first win, for mine they face a weaker bowling offering here who have had their moments being belted in both their opening offerings; the Thunder getting amongst them before folding meekly in their middle order, the Hurricanes smacking them everywhere at 10 an over in their comfortable win last Friday – it’s hard not to see the Scorchers doing something similar here either setting or chasing. While the Scorchers are still with out two of their key bowlers (Coulter-Nile and Behrendorff) their line up of seamers and variety normally gives they enough strike to apply pressure and defend well enough. I think the Scorchers are the team to beat, I think the Sixers likely to finish in the bottom few on the table, keen to be with the Scorchers.
Bet 2 units Scorchers H2H $1.70 CrownBet
Hobart Hurricanes v Melbourne Stars
Monday 26th Dec
H2H, Played 6, Hobart Hurricanes 2, Melbourne Stars 4
Hobart have been a 50/50 proposition winning at home, but they have the 2nd highest winning percentage at home when batting 1st (67%)
The Stars won 3 of 4 games on the road last season and have won 9 of 13 games away from home over the last 3 seasons, the best record in the League over that time period
The Stars have hit more 6’s than their opponent in 8 of their last 9 when batting 1st
The Hurricanes have lost 4 of their last 6 matches played at Blundstone Arena
Hobart have never been beaten when posting a score of more than 160 (versus a winning percentage of 72% for the League as a whole)
Only once in 6 matches on the road have the Stars chased down a total of more than 160
Once again the Stars are the hype team of BBL but yet to win the title and forever looking a list of individuals as opposed to a unified strong team. They go into this game a short favs yet will be with out 3 key players, Pietersen who is on Christmas leave, Hastings who they have now lost for the entire competition with injury and Handscomb with Test duties so not quite as strong a team list as they look by name or market price. Clearly Maxwell, Hussey and Englishman Wright form the backbone of their offering but there has to be some concern as to the depth around them (also note that they have only chased down a total of 160 or more once in the last 6 away games). The Hurricanes came up with a surprise yet resounding win last Friday in Sydney and may have uncovered a smart opening pairing with new acquisition D’Arcy Short aiming up with an excellent quick fire aggressive knock and then Tait turning up some heat with 3 key wickets. I think this is a tricky match up and am not convinced either way, the Starts are missing some key outs and playing away; Hurricanes look some value as the underdog. The weather forecast may also play some part with cloudy skies and a 30% chance of rain. If I was to bet on the outright result then I’d go with the value of the Hurricanes. The betting play I do wish to make is the 6’s Total play under 11.5 at this ground with these two teams, the Stars hitting power is weakened with three key outs notably Pietersen; their away 6’s record last season was a low 3.25 while in all games only 3.8 while the Hurricanes 4.8 at home and 4.1 in all games. 12 or more 6’s looks a stretch and nice risk, could only be enhanced should the weather and or some quick bowling get the upper hand and influence.
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s under 11.5 $1.90 Unibet
Perth Scorchers v Adelaide Strikers
Friday 23rd Dec
H2H, Played 9, Perth Scorchers 4, Adelaide Strikers 5
4 of the previous 5 clashes at the WACA have totaled more than 300 runs
The Scorchers have lost 3 of their last 4 at the WACA against the Strikers
Perth have won only 1 of their previous 5 opening home games in the Big Bash
The Strikers have the 2nd best away record in the League, winning 60% of their matches since 2011, while the Scorchers have the best record as a home team, winning 17 of 25 matches (68%)
Perth’s winning record at home is even better when they bat 1st, winning 11 of 15 (73%)
Adelaide have won 7 of their last 8 games on the road over the previous 2 seasons
The thing to like about the Scorchers is they just look to have soo much depth in their squad this year, it’s been a strength most seasons (two titles and consistent semi finalists) but they now look to be even stronger with the likely availability of Shaun and Mitch Marsh on multiple occasions and the additions of quality Englishman Ian Bell and the return of Mitch Johnson. On any occasion that they can play their strongest list it’s quite conceivable that they could well bat all the way down to #9 or #10, and field a strong bowling line up. They go into this first game with a few key outs in the bowling line up but still look to field a strong line up. The Strikers should have won earlier this week, they scored 133-0 off their first 11 overs at 12 an over and were comfortably ahead of target yet then showed their list weakness (middle order batting) folding with 63 for 6 off the next 9 overs. Their top 3 can bat, but if you get through them early, or quickly or have quality slow bowlers they can be very vulnerable. The WACA has also proved to be a tricky wicket to play BBL on with it bottom two of all tracks last two seasons for runs per innings, while the Scorchers are not at full list they have depth, highlights of class and quality, a smart coach and know the ground.
Bet 2 units Scorchers H2H $1.75 CrownBet
Sydney Sixers v Hobart Hurricanes
Friday 23rd Dec
H2H, Played 6, Sydney Sixers 4, Hobart Hurricanes 2
Hobart has lost 9 of their last 12 Big Bash matches played without the home ground advantage
Sydney have lost their last 3 matches played at the SCG and only once in their last 10 at the ground have they scored more than 160 runs
The team chasing a total has won only 3 of the last 12 BBL matches played at the SCG
The Hurricanes hold the record for the most fours recorded in an innings as the away side (22)
Sydney have hit more sixes than there opponent in 6 of their last 7 matches at the SCG when batting 1st
Only twice in 11 matches on the road have the Hurricanes hit more sixes than their opponent when batting 2nd
The slow Sydney SCG deck is statistically the toughest BBL venue to score runs at, leading the stats as 1st in wickets per match (last two seasons) with 13.9; 1st in wickets per match last season, with 14.8 (average across all grounds: 11.8) and lowest runs-per-wicket ratio (last two seasons), with 21.9. The Sixers come off a win earlier this week (but as we saw last night the Thunder formline won’t be a strong reference for most of this competition) and on face value look to have improved with the positive additions of Roy and Billings, Henriques hit some form while on this track their quality slow bowlers in Botha and O’Keefe should be advantaged, slow things down and keep it tight. The Hurricanes finished 7th last season and it’s hard to see if or where they have improved, they have lost Dunk (scored 85 for the Strikers this week), Sangakkara had a shocking season (correction – and their new key OS signing Stuart Broad won’t arrive until after commitments with England – has arrived). Sixers should have some advantage off positive win and the majority of their players knowing this track and ground well against an opponent with questionable strengths and depth.
Bet 1 unit Sixers H2H $1.73 William Hill
Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Thunder
Thursday 22nd Dec
H2H, Played 5, Melbourne Renegades 4, Sydney Thunder 1
The Renegades have won only 8 of 20 matches played at Etihad Stadium and 6 of those 8 wins have come when chasing a total
Melbourne are winless over the previous 2 seasons when batting 1st at home
The Thunder have the worst away record in the League, winning only 7 of their 21 games since 2011
Sydney also has the worst record on the road when defending a total, winning just 3 of 11
The Renegades have lost their last 5 matches played at Etihad Stadium
Renegades finished just short of the finals (5th) last season and look to have improved with the addition of quality spinners in Narine and Hogg. Their recent home record here has been poor losing last 5 and 12 of their last 20 but I think they get a much weaker opponent here first up. The Thunder were soundly beaten first up on Tuesday night and only have the 1 day break into this away leg, they are desperately lacking class when without Watson and Khawaja, folded quickly in the middle order (in particular against some quality slow bowling which they will again face here) and then offered very little with their bowling attack with only Russell contributing anything that was credible.
Bet 2 units Renegades H2H $1.74 Sportsbet
This ground and pitch clearly favoured batsman last season with the equal highest runs per innings (164) which should favour the Renegades here, especially if batting first (highest opening partnership $1.80). Marcus Harris who comes off some excellent recent Shield form is expected to open with Finch.
Bet 1 unit Renegades highest opening partnership $1.80 Sportsbet
Adelaide Strikers v Brisbane Heat
Wednesday 21st Dec
H2H, Played 5, Adelaide Strikers 3, Brisbane Heat 2
The away team has won all 5 previous clashes between the Strikers and the Heat
Brisbane Heat holds the record for the most sixes in an innings as the away side (13)
The Strikers have a 43% winning record at the Adelaide Oval, winning 9 of 21, with 6 of the 9 wins coming when chasing a total
Brisbane has the worst winning percentage as an away side chasing a total (38%)
The Heat have lost 4 of their previous 5 opening matches in the Big Bash, while the Strikers have never been beaten when opening their campaign
The Strikers have scored more six’s than their opponent in 4 of their last 5 matches at the Adelaide Oval
The Strikers finished on top last season only to then bow up in the semi final. They are generally short on stars but big on guts and all round team work, have a strong batting line up (Dunk, Simmons, Head and Pollard), fair bowling attack and look further strengthened with the inclusion of Pollard. The Heat’s strength has been batting with heavy reliance on Lynn and Cutting, they have now added McCullum but should also be noted his form across the last 12 months has been very ordinary. Their achilles heal has always been their bowling attack and they have done very little to strengthen or improve this, while their record away is also poor. The away visitor has won the last 5 times these two teams have met but I like the Strikers at home first up with a strong line up and what looks a much better bowling attack and for mine are the right play. I also like the 6’s Total play over 11.5 here at this ground where with the short square boundaries and two strong batting lists (and big hitters) we should see plenty of action. The Strikers averaged 12.0 x 6’s at home last season and are strengthened with the inclusion of Pollard, the Heat averaged 12.9 x 6’s a game all season long and have the addition of McCullum, should he fire he can certainly hit.
Bet 1 unit Strikers H2H $1.85 Bet365 / $1.82 Tabsportsbet
Bet 1 unit Total 6’s over 11.5 $1.90 Bet365 / $1.83 William Hill
Sydney Thunder v Sydney Sixers
Tuesday 20th Dec
H2H, Played 9, Sydney Thunder 3, Sydney Sixers 6
The side batting 1st has won only 3 of the previous 9 clashes
Sydney Thunder has won only 5 of 20 matches as the home team, with a 2-9 home record batting 1st, which is the lowest win/loss ratio in the competition at 18%
The Sixers have a 14-9 win loss record on the road, giving them the best winning percentage as the away team (61%), with 8 of those wins coming from 11 matches when chasing a total (73%)
Only 6 times have the Thunder posted a score of more than 150 at home
Only twice in their last 6 home games have the Thunder scored more six’s than their opponent
Spotless Stadium has the lowest average for total match runs in the League at 260 runs per match
Both sides knocked about with key outs, Thunder lose Watson (injury) and Khawaja (rep) while Sixers are without key bowlers and Test reps in Starc, Hazelwood (both now likely long term) Lyon, Bird and Maddinson. England’s ODI skipper Eoin Morgan strengthens Thunder while they should also be advantaged with quicks Russell and Cummings. Trick game first up, Sixer’s attack looks thin and likely pedestrian and I’m happy to take it on.
Bet 1 unit Thunder to win $1.92 Sportsbet now $2.10
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