AFL Statsman provides our AFL Tips, Game Previews and Betting Plays
Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL Tips game previews and recommended AFL plays.
Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype, and educated opinion behind his AFL Tips and analysis.
Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky plays and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.
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AFL Statsman in 2019 was able to build on his impressive record which has now delivered AFL subscribers 97.5 units of profit at a strike rate of 57.5% over the past six seasons.
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Example AFL Tips Weekly Content
2019 Round 10 – Richmond v Essendon
2019 Round 17 – Gold Coast v Adelaide
The Suns are staring down the barrel of some ugly losses in the run home and it doesn’t get any tougher than playing and Adelaide side that has won all 12 matches against the Suns by at least 28 points. Crows to win and cover.
Keen on the over here with the line being set based on the Suns efforts in the first half of the season. The Suns leaked points last start while the last five head to head clashes have all yielded 165 points or more.
Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Adelaide over 157.5 $1.90 Topsport
Result – Adelaide 151 Gold Coast 56 – Yes, this was the infamous game where the Crows coaching box was caught laughing during proceedings. Our subscribers were also laughing – all the way to the bank. We felt that the bookies had framed the total match score market with too much emphasis on the first two thirds of the season when the Suns were one of the top under plays in the competition. We put more weight on the Suns conceding 150 points the previous start and their young list starting to fatigue heading into the final third of the season and the over was never in doubt.
2019 Grand Final – Richmond v GWS
Grand final day is upon us with a great clash awaiting. Richmond arrive at the big day on a 11 game winning streak – which brings back memories of the 2001 Lions entering the Grand Final on a 15 game winning streak and then claiming their first flag. Richmond are at close to full strength – at home – and deserved favourites. GWS are battle hardened and will be ferocious at the contest and I can see the likes of Mumford and Greene crossing the line with their aggression.
The bookies have framed a very accurate market for this match so there are no big bets to be found for this match. Tigers have covered the line in 29 of their last 43 at the MCG. They have won all five of their clashes with GWS at the MCG with the last three wins by margins of 27-36-19 points. This includes a 94-63 victory in Round 17 this year – admittedly with Coniglio going down early for GWS and for these reasons – I want to be on the Tigers.
I’m also happy to take on interstate teams playing against Melbourne sides in the Grand Final. Since the Lions three peat of victories over Melbourne teams – interstate teams have won just two of seven grand finals against Melbourne teams familiar with the MCG – and one of these interstate winners (West Coast) plays at Optus Stadium – with identical dimensions to the MCG. I’m also happy to take on GWS. Yes – it was an inspiring preliminary final win but there is no question that Collingwood was very poor. GWS have only won 4 of 19 at the MCG and only covered 12 of their last 30 outside NSW/ACT. I expect a tight first half – Richmond to pull ahead in the premiership quarter and then kick home in the fourth and cover.
Giants have gone under in 34 of their last 50 away and I lean to the match going under to conclude what has been a very low scoring season
Bet 0.5 units Richmond -17.5 $1.93 Topsport
Result – Richmond 114 GWS 25 – Although only a small bet was recommended, the result was never in doubt with the Tigers winning comfortably and the match also going under.
Additional sample content
AFL Tips Game Previews and Recommended AFL Sports Betting
AFL Statsman in 2019 was able to build on his impressive record which has now delivered AFL subscribers 97.5 units of profit at a strike rate of 57.4% over the past six seasons. This record includes AFL Statsman’s worst run of outs since joining Reading The Play in 2014. Changes to the laws of the game at the beginning of 2016 were one factor that contributed to AFL Statsman falling off the pace at the beginning of 2016. The reduced interchange combined with the paying of free kicks for deliberate out of bounds and 50m penalties encroaching the protected area saw an increase in scoring which impacted line bets and also compromised one of AFL Statsman’s favourite plays – identifying the low scoring arm wrestle and backing the under. Once AFL Statsman refined his selection methodology in response to these changes, he stormed home in the final third of the regular season landing 13 of his last 18 bets at a profit of 16 units. Like any good footy coach, AFL Statsman is adamant that he learns more from his losses than his wins and he is tremendously excited about the potential of his refined selection methodology in 2017. That he then did with an impressive profit result return for 2018!
The Statsman has offered his views and betting strategies privately for a number of years and then formally joined our team in 2014 as our resident AFL man to provide his sports previews and betting tips each week.
AFL Tips and Game Previews and Bets
What you get
- Detailed Weekly AFL Previews (betting games analysis and preview)
- Recommended AFL Bet List (including a Best Bet for the week)
- Free SMS messages advising all bets when first selected
- Key Stats That Matter for all AFL games
- Head to Head AFL tips for each game
- All selections are published on the website for you to obtain at any time across each week (from the Friday onwards)
- We send an sms to notify when the final previews and bets have been published online
- All bets (for either NRL or AFL) are always at $1.90 as either Line bets, Total Score bets (Under or Over) or the odd occasions as Head to Head bets (at better than $1.90) – we deliberately do not play with short priced or exotic bet options
- We always look for a bet option that is commonly available across the majority of betting bookmakers or tabs so that the recommended bet is freely available for all subscribers at the time of notification
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