Expert AFL Tips | 2018 Round 23 | Reading The Play


Expert AFL Tips | 2018 Round 23 | Reading The Play

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.


2018: Profit 12.70 units | 26 winners / 51 bets | strike rate 51.0%

2014-2018: Profit +85.70 units | 163 winners / 283 bets | strike rate 57.6%

AFL Round 23 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1.5 units Carlton-Adelaide over 177.5 $1.87 Tabsportsbet

St Kilda-North Melbourne – Bet TBA

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Essendon, Geelong, Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast, Melbourne, North Melbourne

Game Previews

Carlton v Adelaide

Dead rubber. Blues played in their least favoured night timeslot where they have covered just 21 of their last 55 games. Lean to Crows to win and cover against a side they have defeated on four straight occasions.

I have a strong lean to the under here. Across the past two seasons, four of the past five genuine dead rubber matches (where both sides have been out of finals contention) have gone over the total match score line. Further, Adelaide’s potent attack needs no introduction and 7 of the Crows last 8 games at Etihad have yielded at least 186 points. Further, the last head to head clash between these two sides yielded 205 points. Strong lean to the over here.

Bet 1.5 units Carlton-Adelaide over 177.5 $1.87 Tabsportsbet

St Kilda v North Melbourne

Dead rubber. Kangas have won 7 of their last 9 against the Saints and hammered them 95-43 in Round 2 this season. Lean towards the Kangas to win and cover.

As mentioned above, four of the past five genuine dead rubber matches in the past two seasons have gone over the total match score line. I expect a free flowing affair similar to R22 last season when Saints won 127-78. We know the Kangas can rack up a score, being ranked seventh for goals scored this season. The Saints have been far less potent but have shown improvement in the past two weeks racking up 79 points against the Dons followed by 76 against the Hawthorn defence. Lean to the total match score going over the line here.

St Kilda-North Melbourne – Bet TBA

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Port Adelaide v Essendon – Port need to win this and hope that the Suns upset Geelong at Kardinia Park in order to make the eight. We and the Port players know that isn’t going to happen. I am of the view that Port are gone mentally and they are up against a Dons outfit that has won 7 of their last 9 against Port including the past two. Lean to the Dons to win and cover. Port have gone under in 35 of their last 48 night games but with this match practically a dead rubber, I lean to the over.

Geelong v Gold Coast – I expect Geelong to cruise to another percentage boosting victory but have no interest in playing a 75 point line. Lean to Cats to win and cover. Geelong have gone under in 10 of their last 14 at Kardinia and the Suns have gone under in 17 of 21 games this season, but I can’t play the under in a game where the Suns could very well roll over having fired their last shot against the Lions last week.

Richmond V Western Bulldogs – The Tigers should continue on their merry winning streak at the MCG  where they have also covered 20 of their last 26. However, this is not the right game to be on the Tigers as they are up against a Dogs outfit that has won four straight against the Tigers. Lean to Tigers to win and Dogs to cover. These sides have played out arm wrestles of late with their last three contests yielding 155, 160 and 154 points however, I don’t want to be on the arm wrestle in the last game of the regular season with one side out of finals contention. Lean  to the over.

Fremantle v Collingwood – Pies have covered the line in 14 of their last 19 interstate while Freo have covered in 8 of 12 at Optus Stadium this season. Lean towards Collingwood to win and Freo to cover but this shapes as a real danger game. Also lean towards the over, with Freo out of finals contention and likely to play a little looser than normal.

Sydney v Hawthorn – The great rivalry continue with both teams playing for fourth spot and the vital double chance. This is a genuine toss of the coin job with five of the last seven clashes decided by 10 points or less. Lean towards the Swans to sneak home and the Hawks to cover any line 9.5 or better. No one does an arm wrestle like Longmire and Clarkson head to head with the last five clashes yielding 156 points or less. With this in mind, and rain forecast the bookies have set the line very low so I don’t have a play. However, if the rain stays away, a line around 141.5 is way too low even given the history of arm wrestles and I would lean to the over.

Brisbane v West Coast – Hugely dangerous match for an Eagles squad trying to lock down a top two spot against a side they have beaten on seven straight occasions. On a dry track, the Lions would be in with a sniff of an upset but with rain forecast Friday through to Sunday, i lean towards the Eagles bigger bodies having the advantage over their younger rivals at the contested ball. Eagles to win and cover. The Lions have gone over in 25 of their last 32 home games while the Eagles have gone under in 23 of their last 33 away games. The line is currently on the high side for a match played the day after potentially three days of rain so at this stage, I lean to the under.

Melbourne v GWS – Potential let down game for Dees having climbed the mountain and finally gotten the monkey off their back. They get their chance to go into the finals with momentum against a GWS outfit that has covered just 5 of their last 15 interstate and were badly exposed against the Swans. Lean to Dees to win and cover. The line has been set around 179-180 in a nod to the Dees attacking prowess, but four of the last five head to head clashes have yielded 159 or less and I think the GWS defence can keep the floodgates from opening. Lean to the under.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2018

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.