AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


AFL Grand Final 2016


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Game Preview

Swans vs Bulldogs

Sydney’s first quarter demolition of Geelong last week was a blitzkrieg that is rarely seen at the highest level and it was a level of performance that can only be achieved by the very best teams – and they did it off a six day break! The Western Bulldogs fairytale continues to gather momentum, but the reality is that their very best football is short of what the Swans have to offer.

I expect Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy and Jack to win the majority of contested ball and give the Swans the edge in this department. I also see Buddy and Tippett as having a clear edge over their Bulldogs rivals. More importantly, I note that the Swans have 18 players with Grand Final experience  compared to just one for the Bulldogs. I want to be on the experienced Swans who  are determined to avenge the their embarassing 2014 capitulation to Hawthorn. They also play in their preferred day timeslot and have covered  the line in 30 of their last 46 day matches.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won the two most recent clashes by four points on both occasions and they have an excellent cover record as underdogs, but I happy to bet against Grand Final rookies and expect the Swans to have learnt from those games and to turn the tables convincingly.

The line is set at 9.5 to 11.5 points and I note that since Sydney and West Coast played back to back thrillers in 2005-2006, only the Collingwood-St Kilda drawn Grand Final failed to deliver a double figure margin to the victors. Close grand finals are the exception to the rule in the modern era.

The line has been set very low for the two best defensive teams in the league, but if the rain stays away, I lean towards the over, especially with the Bulldog being very aggressive in attack in recent weeks.

Tip – Swans

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.