AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 21

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 21

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.


2017: Profit +8.59units | 24 winners / 40 bets | strike rate 60%

2014-2017: Profit +70.82 units | 132 winners / 225 bets | strike rate 58.7%


AFL Round 21 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Brisbane-Gold Coast over 196.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units Essendon-Adelaide over 200.5 $1.90 Unibet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

GWS, Swans, Richmond, Brisbane, Adelaide, West Coast, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide


Game Previews

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Intriguing Q Clash in the wake of Eade’s sacking and I’m sure many punters will be anticipating the time honoured “bounce back” from the club which has just sacked its coach in-season. Also in the Suns favour is the Lions woeful record as favourites under Leppitsch. It will be interesting to see if Fagan can keep his charges focused under the weight of expectation given they are starting as favourites for the first time under his tenure. Despite all this, I still lean towards the Lions and my confidence has been bolstered by the withdrawal of Lynch.

With both teams out of the playoff reckoning and the end of season holiday looming, a free scoring affair is a higher probability than normal. Free scoring has also been the trend in recent Q Clashes with the last four matches yielding 194, 252, 201 and 214 points. Further the Lions have gone over in 17 of their last 20 home games, in 13 of 19 games this season and in 11 of their last 13 games as a favourite. A warm 29 degree day will ensure a fast track come twilight. The market agrees with our assessment and has moved 2-3 points towards the over since Monday.

Bet 1 unit Brisbane-Gold Coast over 165.5 $1.91 Bet365


Essendon v Adelaide

The Dons have rarely troubled the top outfits this season and it’s hard to bet against Adelaide here. Nonetheless, I respect the fact that the Dons have covered the line in 14 of their last 20 home games so will just be watching this one.

I’m keen to get on the over here. While the stakes are fairly high, both teams do tend to rack up points nonetheless particularly at Etihad. The Crows last four Etihad matches have yielded 231, 220, 204 and 230 while the Dons past two matches at Etihad have yielded 224 and 237 points.  More importantly, the last three head to head matches have topped the double ton. Add in the fact that Adelaide have gone over in 25 of their last 33 matches on the road and I want to be on the over.

Bet 2 units Essendon-Adelaide over 200.5 $1.90 Unibet


Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Western Bulldogs v GWS – Big test for GWS to see if they can get the monkey off their back and beat a top eight team on the road. The Doggies have covered the line in 17 of their last 22 matches as an 0.5 to 15 pt dog and I lean toward them doing likewise here. I also have a lean toward the under with the last three head to head clashes yielding 142, 172 and 171 but with the market edging slightly towards the over since Monday, I’ll pass on a play here.


Sdyney v Fremantle – Strong lean towards the Sydney juggernaut continuing with the Swans plaing in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 33 of their last 50 games. The market has also moved over a goal towards the Swans since Monday.


Geelong v Richmond – Strong lean towards the Tigers momentum continuing with a strong win over an injury/suspension hit Cats. The Tigers have gone under in 15 of their 19 games in 2017 but I’m not keen to play a line under 160 at Kardinia Park in the day.


West Coast v Carlton – The Blues are looking at finishing the season with 10 straight losses and potentially the wooden spoon if they can’t manufacture a win somewhere. The Eagles have covered the line in 24 of their last 34 at home, but have not done so covering recent games at home so I will pass.


Melbourne v St Kilda – The Saints 14 game winning streak against the Dees was snapped in Round 1 much to the chagrin of our subscribers who were on the Saints to continue their dominance. This is genuinely a toss of the coin job but I have a slight lean towards the Dees. Also a slight lean towards the over despite the high stakes with two of the last three head to head clashes topping the double ton.


Hawthorn v North Melbourne – The Hawks have lifted in recent weeks, but the air must be well and truly out of their tyres after last week’s capitulation to Richmond. The Kangas go ok at the G, having covered 10 of their last 13 at HQ and I lean towards them covering the line.


Port Adelaide v Collingwood – The Pies have played some reasonable footy over the past few weeks once the finals became an unlikely possibility. They have covered 11 of their last 14 interstate and I lean towards them covering the three goal line against a Power outfit that has some question marks after a horrendous Showdown loss.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.