AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 20


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 20

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +10.32 units | 23 winners / 36 bets | strike rate 63.9%

2014-2017: Profit +72.55 units | 131 winners / 221 bets | strike rate 59.3%

2017 Results File  Rd13_RTP_AFL Results_2017

AFL Round 20 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2.5 units Geelong-Sydney under 164.5 $1.90 Sportsbet/163.5 $1.87 William Hill

Bet 0.5 units Essendon -25.5 $1.91 Unibet/-26.5 $1.93 Bet365

Bet 1 unit St Kilda-West Coast under 173.5 $1.91 Bet365/172.5 $1.90 Topsport

Bet 2.5 units Richmond-Hawthorn under 164.5 $1.91 William Hill/$1.80 TABSportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS, Essendon, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Fremantle, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Adelaide

Game Previews

Geelong v Sydney

Cracking game to kick off an exciting week of footy. The Cats opened the week as -1.5 favs but since the suspension of Dangerfield, have drifted out to as much as +2.5 underdogs. Dangerfield is unquestionably a key loss and I expect the Swans to take full advantage by grabbing the win here.

The stakes are very high for the Swans here – they desperately need a win in the face of a tough draw looming an accordingly, I’m expecting another fiercely fought arm wrestle between these two sides. Recent history suggests it is very probable with the last three clashes yielding 157, 158 and 158 points.  Both defences are capable of accommodating an arm wrestle. Since turning their season around in Round 7, the Swans have allowed just 74 PPG while the Cats have allowed 85 PPG for the season. The Swans have also gone under in 12 of 18 games this season. The market agrees and has moved at least two to six points towards the under since Monday. Intermittent rain is forecast around 9pm and should it eventuate it will further increase the probability of the match going under.

Bet 2.5 units Geelong-Sydney under 164.5 $1.90 Sportsbet/163.5 $1.87 William Hill

Essendon v Carlton

As advised last week, I’m of the view that Carlton has hit the wall. They have been badly beaten by both Brisbane and Geelong in their last two starts and now get an Essendon outfit on the rebound from a loss. The Dons have covered the line in 14 of their last 19 home games and I expect them to do so here. The market agrees and has moved around two points towards the Dons since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units Essendon -25.5 $1.91 Unibet/-26.5 $1.93 Bet365

St Kilda v West Coast

Massive clash between  the 10-8 Eagles and the 9-9 Saints – the Saints will be in dire straights with a loss. Both teams have gone under in 12 of their 18 games this season and have not been involved in a shootout for a month. Although Etihad does lend itself to a shootout from time to time, I can’t see the Eagles wanting to get involved in a shootout given their general lack of speed. I also note the Eagles have gone under in14 of their last 19 away games.

Bet 1 unit St Kilda-West Coast under 173.5 $1.91 Bet365/172.5 $1.90 Topsport

Richmond v Hawthorn

The leagues two premier ‘under’ teams square off at the MCG with the Tigers looking to lock down that top four spot and double chance (for what it’s worth after last year’s pre finals bye debacle) and the Hawks needing to win their four remaining games to stay in the hunt. The Tigers have gone under in 14 of 18 games this season while the Hawks have gone under in 13 of 18 games. I expect the Tigers and their #2 defence to again dictate the tempo of the game. I also can’t see Richmond’s forwards keeping the scorer busy given that they have only managed 100 points four times this season – all against bottom four clubs – Brisbane, Carlton and North. Showers are forecast throughout the day and should the rain eventuate it will further increase the probability of the match going under.

Bet 2.5 units Richmond-Hawthorn under 164.5 $1.91 William Hill/$1.80 TABSportsbet

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

GWS v Melbourne – There is no question now that the Giants are in all sorts of strife, form wise but I can’t touch the Demons as I have a long term knock on them when playing interstate and this is a back to back interstate away match for them.  The Giants have won five straight at Manuka Oval so I have a very slight lean to them covering with little confidence.

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs – Unlike some bottom four teams who put the cue in the rack in the last month, I expect the Lions to finish the season strongly and in resting players last week it is clear Fagan is targeting winnable home games. The resurgent Dogs may be a bridge too far however. Lions have gone over in 16 of their last 19 home games and Dogs have gone under in 15 of their last 19 away games so totals betting is a no go zone.

North Melbourne v Collingwood – Pies have been in reasonable form against class opposition in the last few weeks and having covered 17 of their last 23 night games, I expect them to cover the line against the Kangas.

Fremantle v Gold Coast – It was hard not to be impressed by the Freo taking the fight to GWS last week. I expect them to cover the line against a Suns outfit that has only covered 8 of their last256 interstate matches.

Adelaide v Port Adelaide – Wow! We’re in for a classic Showdown! While Adelaide’s best form has been superior to Port’s this year, their vulnerabilities have been exposed on a number of occasions. Hard to split these teams from a betting perspective with Crows covering the line in 16 of their last 22 home games and Port covering the line in 18 of their last 26 games as a 0.5-15pt dog.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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