AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 19

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 19

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.


2017: Profit +12.36 units | 22 winners / 33 bets | strike rate 66.7%

2014-2017: Profit +74.56 units | 130 winners / 218 bets | strike rate 59.6%

2017 Results File  Rd13_RTP_AFL Results_2017


AFL Round 19 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 0.5 units GWS-37.5 $1.92 Sportsbet / $1.91 William Hill

Bet 0.5 units Geelong -27.5 $1.93 Bet365 / $1.90 Flem Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Western Bulldogs-Essendon under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365 / $1.90 Topsport

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Sydney, Melbourne, GWS, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, Essendon, Adelaide, West Coast


Game Previews

GWS v Fremantle

As we count down the weeks towards the finals, I’m keen to be on top four sides to beat up teams out of the eight and realistically out of contention. GWS will be bolstered by the return on Coniglio and Cameron and I expect them to rebound after a rough month. They have only lost to the Swans in six matches at the Showground this season. I expect them to cover the line against a Freo oufit they beat by 92 points in their last meeting. I note Freo is in an offensive slump and has only covered the line in 7 of their last 19 away games. The market agrees and has firmed 4-7 points towards GWS since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units GWS-37.5 $1.92 Sportsbet/$1.91 William Hill


Carlton v Geelong

The Blues are staggering towards the finish line and were ripped apart in the first half against the Lions last week. They now rise steeply in class to play a top four team who are coming off a loss in a top of the table clash. Despite a handful of omissions at the selection table, I still expect the Cats to cover the line here and note that despite their brilliant day record over the past three seasons, Carlton is ordinary at night covering only 5 of their last 18 night games. The market agrees and has moved 1-3 points towards Geelong since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units Geelong -27.5 $1.93 Bet365/$1.90 Flem Sportsbet


Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Desperation clash with the winner having gaining a rails run for the last spot in the finals. I lean towards the Dogs recent big match experience giving them the edge here and expect an arm wrestle that is played on their terms. The Dogs have gone under in 28 of their last 41 games and in four of their last five at Etihad with the only exception being a shootout against the Kangas. Their defence hasn’t reached the heights of last year but remains solid at 84 PPG allowed. The last two head to head clashes have yielded 146 and 167 points and I’m expecting a similar outcome here.

Bet 2 units Western Bulldogs-Essendon under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365/$1.90 Topsport


Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Hawthorn v Sydney – The Hawks have won their last two against the Swans and must be respected at home. Slight lean towards the Hawks with the start. Hawks have gone under in 12 of 17 games this season and the last three head to head clashes have yielded just 156, 145and 129 points.


North Melbourne v Melbourne – Roos are on an amazing 16 game winning streak against Melbourne who surely get their chance to finally win one here! Slight lean towards the Roos with the start. I expect a free scoring match that goes over if the forecast 1-5 mm of rain does not eventuate.


Port Adelaide v St Kilda – 5-10 mm of rain forecast. Despite improving their woeful interstate record this season, I’m always happy to take on St Kilda interstate as they have only covered 11 of their last 34 away from the MCG and Etihad.


Gold Coast v Richmond – I had a strong lean towards the Tigers covering the line before the omission of Riewoldt and Prestia for the Tigers and the inclusion of linchpins, May and Ablett for the Suns who have only covered 4 of their last 15 at night. This now shapes as a danger game.


Collingwood v Adelaide – Important game at MCG for Adelaide enabling them to tune up with a final hitout at the grand final venue before the big dance. I expect them to be switched on and cover the line againt the Pies. As far as total match scores go this is a danger game with Adelaide going over in 16 of their last 21 day games and the Pies going under in 13 of their last 19 home games.


West Coast v Brisbane – I was very keen on the Lions +48.5 earlier in the week prior to the suspension of Zorko and the resting of Hipwood, McLuggage and Berry. Clearly, Fagan is targeting winnable home games against the Suns and the Roos. The Eagles have only covered 3 of their last 8 at home and you wouldn’t touch them with stolen money at the moment. Danger game.


 

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.