AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 18


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 18

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +12.01 units | 21 winners / 31 bets | strike rate 67.7%

2014-2017: Profit +74.21 units | 129 winners / 216 bets | strike rate 59.7%

2017 Results File  Rd13_RTP_AFL Results_2017

AFL Round 18 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1.5 units Adelaide-Geelong under 178.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit  Collingwood-West Coast over 184.5 $1.91 Bet365 / Unibet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Hawthorn, GWS, West Coast, Carlton

Game Previews

Adelaide v Geelong

The Cats have a mental edge over the Crows having won five consecutive games against the boys from Adelaide. However, they will be hard pressed to continue that record without the brilliance of Dangerfield and the market supports this with the line moving 2-3 points towards the Crows since Monday. There are still question marks over the Crows when coming up against the upper echelon of the competition and I want to see more of what they have to offer before considering backing them.

While these teams are two of the highest scoring outfits in the comp, they are also two of the better defensive teams with the Crows conceding 81 PPG and the Cats allowing 86 PPG. While Adelaide games regularly went over 200 points in the early stages of the season, the scoreboard attendant has been less busy of late with six of the last seven Crows games going under. Further, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 170, 146 and 170 points. On a very cold night in Adelaide with two sound defensive teams competing for top spot on the ladder, I can’t see a shootout unfolding.

Bet 1.5 units Adelaide-Geelong under 178.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Collingwood v West Coast

With the Pies all but out of finals contention, I’m expecting a reasonably open affair at Etihad tomorrow. The Pies defence has has been woeful in recent weeks conceding 88, 117 and 118 in the past three games – all to teams outside the top eight. If they are to be any chance in this match, the Pies have to take the game on and rack up some points and I expect that they will. The Eagles scoring has been down in recent weeks but with Kennedy back in the line up, I’m expecting some improvement. I also note that their three matches at Etihad this season have yielded 167 (v Western Bulldogs), 189 and 229 points. The Pies have gone over the 184.5 line available for this match in 6 of their last 7 games while the Eagles have gone over the same line in 2 of their last 4 games.

Bet 1 unit  Collingwood-West Coast over 184.5 $1.91 Bet365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Essendon v North Melbourne – Back at Etihad, I have a strong lean towards the Kangas covering the four goal line noting they have covered 25 of their last 37 starts as a home state dog and 36 of their last 56 with seven or more days between games.

Melbourne v Port – The Power get their chance to bag a top eight scalp on the road with the Dees being hit by injuries.

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast – The Dogs kept their finals hopes alive last start while the Suns are all but out of the running now. The Suns have only covered 8 of their last 26 games interstate and I lean towards the Dogs hammering the final nail in their coffin.

Sydney v St Kilda – I expect the Sydney juggernaut to continue its merry run against a Saints outfit that has only covered the spread in 11 of their last 33 games outside Melbourne but the bookies have the right line here. Slight lean to the under with the Swans going under in 14 of their last 20 home games.

Fremantle v Hawthorn – Freo were dismal last start and have a poor back up record, covering only 8 of their last 28 games off a six day break. Lean towards the Hawks keeping their slim finals chances alive.

Richmond v GWS – The Giants have a well-documented poor record on the road against top eight teams on the road and until we see some evidence that they have rectified those issues, I’m keen to be on the Tigers with the start.

Brisbane v Carlton – Carlton have opened up as favourites but injuries are starting to take their toll and they now travel interstate to take on a Lions outfit that will surely be up for the contest. Lean towards the Lions covering with the start and the market agrees firming up to five points towards the Lions since Monday. Brisbane have also gone over in 15 of their last 18 home games and if Carlton are not up for their usual grinding low scoring contest, I expect this match to go over.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.