AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 17

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 17

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.


2017: Profit +15.51 units | 21 winners / 29 bets | strike rate 72.4%

2014-2017: Profit +77.71 units | 129 winners / 214 bets | strike rate 60.3%

2017 Results File  Rd13_RTP_AFL Results_2017


AFL Round 17 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 0.5 units St Kilda -4.5 $1.91 Unibet/$1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units GWS-Sydney under 170.5 $1.91 Bet365/169.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

St Kilda, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Adelaide, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle


Game Previews

St Kilda v Essendon

Both teams off a six day break and it’s hard to go past Saints after their blitzkreig of the Tigers last week. The Saints have won their last three matches against the Bombers by 11, 46 and 110 points albeit two of those coming against a weakened Bombers outfit last year. The Saints are also on a three game winning streak at Etihad winning those games by 67, 31 and 17 points and play the venue better than the Dons. The Saints  effort in dismantling the Tigers last start was far more impressive than anything the Bombers have offered this season and I want to be on them here. The market agrees with our assessment and has moved up to two points towards the Saints since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units St Kilda -4.5 $1.91 Unibet/$1.80 Tabsportsbet


GWS v Sydney

Mouthwatering clash and I expect GWS to overcome the frustration of consecutive draws to build on their three game winning streak over the Swans (margins of 42,36 and 42) with another win here.

I’m really keen on the under here with this night clash having all the hallmarks of an arm wrestle similar to the GWS-Geelong  68 all draw in another night clash at this venue three weeks ago. The stakes are high for GWS’s top two aspirations and for the Swans top eight aspirations and I expect both sides to bring ferocious intent to the contested ball. Both sides have good defensive set ups with the Giants allowing 86 PPG and the Swans allowing just 80 PPG. The last four derbies have yielded 168, 146, 168 and 161 points and I expect a similar outcome here. For good measure, GWS have gone under in 13 of their last 16 night games. The market agrees with our assessment and has moved 2-3 points towards the under since we recommended subscribers bet under 170.5 points on Tuesday morning.

Bet 3 units GWS-Sydney under 170.5 $1.91 Bet365/169.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Hawthorn – Credit to the Hawks for turning their season around in the last month but I want be on their great rival to cover the line here after the Cats tuned up with a demolition of the Lions. The market agrees and has moved three points towards the Cats since Monday.


Port Adelaide v North Melbourne – Port are not at their best in the day only covering 6 of their last 16 day games so I’m not interested in them covering a six goal line off a six day break. I do lean to the over however.


Gold Coast v Collingwood – It will be interesting to see if the Pies play better now they are all but out of the running for the eight. The Suns should win, but with the potential for the Pies to play carefree footy that could trouble the Suns, this is a danger game. Pies have also covered 10 of their last 13 interstate.


Melbourne v Adelaide – Not keen to get involved in a neutral venue game. Adelaide have gone over in 23 of their last 31 away games but have gone under in their last five games, so the total match score market is best left alone.


Richmond v Brisbane – Despite just three wins for the season, the Lions have defied the bookies by covering big lines in 5 of their 6 away games this season. The Tigers should rebound with a win against a side they have a 10 game winning streak against, but they are no good things to cover a six goal line after their last start capitulation.


Carlton v Western Bulldogs – The Blues have overachieved this year – no question. But their young roster struggled late last season losing 10 of their last 11 and I would not be surprised to see more of the same give they have now lost three in a row. Lean to the Dogs rebounding and covering here.


Fremantle v West Coast – Both teams off a seven day break into the Western Derby but it’s Freo who will have a spring in their step. The Eagles were badly exposed last start and I really like the Dockers to cover the line here. I’m keeping an eye on this match with a view to a possible bet TBA late Friday or on Saturday.


 

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.