AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Week 3


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Week 3

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +11.4 units | 29 winners / 48 bets | strike rate 60.4%

2014-2017: Profit +73.63 units | 137 winners / 233 bets | strike rate 58.8%

AFL Finals Week 3 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 0.5 units Adelaide-Geelong under 170.5 $1.88 William Hill

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Geelong, Richmond

Game Previews

Adelaide v Geelong

Adelaide play just their second game in 26 days and there will be much interest in whether they can become the first Qualifying Final winner to win through to the Grand Final after two byes in three weeks. The Crows have lost two of their past three matches after the mid-season bye including a 14 point loss to Hawthorn at home after this season’s bye.  I have some question marks about them straight after the bye. I’ve also had nagging doubts all season about the Crows toughness, ability to win a scrap and adjust to Sloane being tagged out of the game. The time has come for them to answer that question and I think they’ll be found wanting. They are up against an opponent that has won three of the last four matches head to head. The match that Geelong lost earlier this year, saw the Cats fall 22 points behind in the first quarter after a bad start before breaking even the rest of the way – I still think the resurgent Cats have a mental edge here. Strong lean towards the Cats covering a line of around three goals.

I’m keen to back the arm wrestle here with the last four clashes yielding 101, 170, 140 and 170 points. I expect the match to be played on Geelong’s terms and their last five games have yielded 137, 131, 162, 129 and 146 points. For good measure, the Cats have gone under in 21 of 32 away games since 2015. The market agrees and there have been nibbles of support for the under play with the line moving one point towards the under with some bookies in the last 24 hours.

Bet 0.5 units Adelaide-Geelong under 170.5 $1.88 William Hill

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Richmond v GWS

Like Adelaide, Richmond have to overcome two byes in three weeks, but they are better placed than the Crows to win through to the big dance. They are up against GWS who have a dismal record against top eight sides interstate and have won just one of 11 games at the G. Further,  the Giants played just one match at the G this season –  they are still are relatively young squad and have a challenge in front of them to adapt to the wide wings of the MCG, which is something that I think has been underestimated by most pundits.  I have a lean towards Richmond covering.

I have a strong lean towards the under in the total match score betting. Richmond have been the premier under team this season going under in 17 of 23 matches while GWS have gone under in 16 of their last 24 away matches. The last five head to head clashes have yielded 109, 153, 134, 147 and 157. If Richmond replicate the ferocious intensity they showed against Geelong last start, then its hard to see this match going over the line, especially if some light rain arrives. I will monitor the market over the next 24 hours to see if a bet can be recommended.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.