AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Week 2


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Week 2

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +12.4 units | 29 winners / 47 bets | strike rate 61.7%

2014-2017: Profit +74.63 units | 137 winners / 232 bets | strike rate 59.1%

AFL Finals Week 2 2017 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit GWS-West Coast under 164.5$1.90 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Sydney, GWS

Game Previews

GWS v West Coast

I was very keen to be on GWS to cover the line here, playing on a dry track at home against an Eagles outfit that played extra time last start and has had two days less to recover. Alas, GWS have been rocked by the loss of Cameron and Mumford on top of a season long battle with injuries across the roster. I still lean toward the Giants to cover but can’t have a bet on them.

However, I’m keen on the under in this clash between two competent defensive outfits. The Giants forward line has been misfiring for some time now and the loss of Cameron hurts them further. There is a reasonable chance that we’ll see a similar game to the twilight clash at this venue in  Round 22, four weeks ago, when GWS prevailed 12.9 – 81 to 9.6 – 60. Both sides kicked reasonably well that night but couldn’t muster up enough shots to put a big score on the board. For good measure, the Giants have gone under in 16 of their last 20 night games, while the Eagles have gone under in 16 of their last 22 road games and 25 of their last 33 night games. There is some risk that if the Giants grind their way to a match winning lead in the first three quarters, the Eagles and their tired legs could capitulate late so we’ll just have a one unit bet on the under.

Bet 1 unit GWS-West Coast under 164.5$1.90 Sportsbet

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Geelong v Sydney – Backing the Qualifying Final loser to win their Semi Final proved very lucrative for the first 14 years of the McIntyre System with 26 of 28 Qualifying Final losers rebounding to win their Semi Finals. However, the trend has changed in the last three years with four Qualifying Final losers exiting in straight sets. I expect the Cats to continue their recent poor run in September with another straight sets exit against a surging Swans outfit that has won 15 of its last 17 and defeated the Cats in three straight matches with an average winning margin of 40 points.  I just can’t see the Cats have the weapons in the forward half and can’t see Menzel making a huge difference on a wet track. I lean towards the Swans covering. The ATS line is about right so we’ll just watch. I have a strong lean to the under with the line firming 9 points towards the under since Monday due to the forecast showers before and during the match.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.