AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 9


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 9

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +10.02 units | 11 winners / 14 bets | strike rate 78.6%

2014-2017: Profit +72.22 units | 119 winners / 199 bets | strike rate 59.8%

AFL Round 9 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Essendon-West Coast under 192.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 0.5 units North Melbourne +12.5 $1.93 Bet365

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, Fremantle

Game Previews

Essendon v West Coast

Much has been set about the Eagles road woes but the fact is that their form at Etihad is fair winning three of their last five games at the venue comfortably and with two losses coming by just 8 and 10 points. I lean toward the Eagles covering the line here and consolidating their position in the Top 8.

These teams have gone under the 192.5 line available for this match in each of  their last six head to head clashes. The Eagles defence has been good this season allowing 83PPG and I expect it to shape the final score line of this match. The Eagles have gone under the total match score line in five of their last six games. I also note that two of the Eagles last three matches at Etihad have also gone under 192.5 points.

Bet 1 unit Essendon-West Coast under 192.5 $1.91 Bet365

Melbourne v North Melbourne

The Demons lifted admirably on the road against Adelaide after learning of Jesse Hogan’s cancer ordeal. Now they have to avoid an emotional letdown and lift again versus a Kangas outfit to whom they have lost 15 consecutive matches. Admittedly, the Kangas have lost some key personnel who were the backbone of that 15 game winning streak but they still have plenty of troops who have a mental edge over their Dees counterparts. The Kangas also have a strong record at the G, covering 9 of their last 12 there. They have also covered the ATS line in 23 of their last 33 games as a home state underdog. I expect the Kangas to rebound here and cover the ATS line. The market agrees with this assessment and has moved 1-3 points in favour of the Kangas since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units North Melbourne +12.5 $1.93 Bet365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Geelong v Western Bulldogs – The Cats 5-0 start is now a distant memory as their form line comes under scrutiny. Not only have they lost their past three, but of their five wins, most were against mediocre opposition with the Cats scraping home late in a number of those games. I lean towards the Bulldogs covering the ATS line here. Dogs have gone under in 22 of their last 32 but the line has already been set for a wet game.

St Kilda v Sydney –Swans have won six a row versus Saints winning the two most recent clashes by 70 points and 97 points – both at Etihad. However, the Saints clearly have superior form this year and the Swans have to manage a back to back interstate away trip off a six day turnaround. Slight lean to Saints in a danger game!

GWS v Richmond – GWS have covered the ATS line in 11 of their last 15 home games, however their recent form is a little shaky with two narrow wins and a loss so I have little confidence in them coving a five goal line. Slight lean to Richmond covering, especially if wet.

Collingwood v Hawthorn – There has been a big go for the Pies this week firming from -3.5 on Monday to -12.5 today as the Hawks have been hard hit by injuries. This market move seems to have overlooked that the Pies have injury issues of their own with Reid and Varcoe out. Backing a 2-6 team in 17th place is not a path to riches even if the Pies play in their preferred night slot where they have covered the line in 16 of their last 22. Danger game.

Brisbane v Adelaide – All the data points towards this game going over the total match score line with Adelaide going over in 22 of their last 28 away games and the Lions going over in 12 of their last 14 day games. However, even though the Gabba drains very well, we just don’t know the impact of forecast rain at this stage. Lean toward the over if the ground has time to dry sufficiently and will keep a watching brief on this match over the next 24 hours in case betting opportunities arise. 

Fremantle v Carlton – Blues have lost 9 of their last 10 interstate and I have a strong lean to Freo covering the ATS line play but with a likely wet track potentially playing into the Blues hands this is not a game I want to be betting on. 


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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