AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 8


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 8

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +11.02 units | 11 winners / 13 bets | strike rate 84.6%

2014-2017: Profit +73.22 units | 119 winners / 198 bets | strike rate 60.1%

AFL Round 8 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Brisbane over 196.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Hawthorn, St Kilda, GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Richmond, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne

Game Previews

Hawthorn v Brisbane

Interesting bottom of the table clash with Hawthorn chasing back to back wins for the first time this season – do they have the fire in the belly to win two in a row? Meanwhile, the Lions will try to overcome a dismal interstate record, having covered the line in only 6 of their last 22 interstate games. The Lions also have to overcome back to back interstate trips and a six day turnaround. Despite all these obstacles, a sneaky Lions win would not surprise me as Coach Fagan would have certainly penciled this game in his calendar at the start of the season and will be keen to get one up on Clarkson. Slight lean towards the Lions covering the big line.

These combatants have a history of high scoring matches with the last five clashes yielding 222, 192, 230, 218 and 205 points. The Lions have gone over the total match score line in 17 of their last 20 games off a six day break  and their last three matches have yielded 236, 217 and 212 points. Further, these two sides are two of the worst defensive outfits in the competition with the Lions conceding 120 PPG and Hawthorn 114 PPG. A day clash at Launceston with little wind should be conducive to scoring. The market agrees and after opening at around 189.5-193.5 points on Monday has moved 3-7 points towards the over. In a quiet week for betting action, we’ll just have one unit on the over, protect our profits and wait for better opportunities in the weeks to come.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Brisbane over 196.5 $1.91 Bet365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

West Coast v Western Bulldogs – This match screams of a contested footy ‘arm wrestle’ with West Coast determined to avenge last year’s elimination final loss. Several key stats point toward a low scoring clash with the Eagles going under in 22 of their last 30 night games and the Dogs going under in 20 of their last 30 games including 11 of their last 14 away games. The Dogs have also gone under in 21 of their last 28 days coming off a six day break. Unfortunately, the bookies are all over this and have set the line too low for us to have an under bet so we’ll just watch and enjoy. I lean towards the under and the Eagles to cover.

St Kilda v Carlton – The Saints attack is averaging 98 PPG this season and four of the last five Saints games have gone over the total match score line set for this clash. Accordingly, I lean towards the over. However, Carlton under Brendan Bolton have a knack for getting numbers to the contested ball and turning the game into a scrap so I can’t back the over with any confidence.

GWS v Collingwood – After last week’s embarrassing capitulation to Carlton  during their 125th birthday celebrations, Collingwood will now be playing for the memory of Lou Richards. Surely, they won’t need to open the dressing room door to let them out this week? Despite their 2-5 record, the Pies biggest loss this season was just 23 points – they are not capitulating. The Pies have covered the line in 8 of their last 11 interstate matches and I have a lean towards the Pies covering the five goal line against a team they have never lost to.

Essendon v Geelong – The Dons have covered the line in 10 of their last 14 home matches. Questions marks have been raised over both sides over their performances the past fortnight and both are on two game losing streaks so I can’t bet with confidence. Slight lean towards Geelong covering.

Adelaide v Melbourne – The Crows have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 home games and are deserved seven goal favourites despite last week’s hiccup against North which I am prepared to forgive as they only played one bad quarter. However, I have no betting interest as there is no evidence that this Dees outfit will capitulate. Three of the Dees four losses have been by around two goals or less and their worst loss was by 29 pts v Geelong. Slight lean towards Dees covering but with no confidence.

Richmond v Fremantle – Despite improving on last season’s horror show, the fact is that Freo has only covered the line in 4 of their last 14 away games. The Tigers have also improved but have only covered the line in 5 of their last 17 day matches so I can’t have a betting interest on this contest. Lean towards the Tigers to cover on the basis of their form this season being superior to Freo’s.

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – The AFL deserves some credit for trying to expand the game’s reach but from a betting perspective I couldn’t bet on this novelty game with stolen money. There are too many questions over travel and air quality and it’s entirely possible that the team that prepares and travels best will win. Lean towards Port only on the basis of their superior Australian form.

North Melbourne v Sydney – The Swans returned to the winner’s circle on the back of a match winning performance from Buddy Franklin and a first quarter blitzkrieg against the Lions. The rest of the match was quite even however with Sydney failing to kick further away from the lowly Lions. The Kangaroos form in thrashing Adelaide was far more impressive and I lean towards them covering the small line especially noting that the Kangas have covered 32 of their last 48 games off a seven day or greater break.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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