AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 7


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 7

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +6.96 units | 9 winners / 11 bets | strike rate 81.8%

2014-2017: Profit +69.16 units | 117 winners / 196 bets | strike rate 59.7%

AFL Round 7 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Western Bulldogs-Richmond under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

Bet 1.5 units Port Adelaide-West Coast under 185.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

GWS, Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Melbourne, Fremantle

Game Previews

Western Bulldogs-Richmond

Important clash for two teams entrenched in the Top 8 who are both coming off a last start loss. The Tigers drew the short straw and will return from interstate to face the premiers off a six day break while the Dogs have the luxury of two extra days to prepare. This is a significant advantage and I lean towards the Dogs covering the line at home.

However, my main interest is in the total match score going under. Both teams have strong defensive records with each team allowing 86 points per game this season. We also have two top eight teams coming off a loss and they will be desperate to avoid two losses in a row. That kind of attitude means we are more likely to see some fiercely fought contested footy and an arm wrestle than a free flowing shootout. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are suffering the kicking yips  and should this continue, I can’t see the total match score going over the 186.5 we recommended to our subscribers on Tuesday night. While many associate Etihad with high scoring games, the reality is different with the Dogs going under in 7 of their last 10 at Etihad and the Tigers going under in 3 of their last 4 at Etihad. Head to head, the last two clashes between these sides have generated just 160 and 141 points. I also note that the Tigers have gone under in 19 of their last 27 games off a six day break. The market is inclined to agree with this assessment and with some bookies moving the line 1-2 points towards the under since Tuesday.

Bet 3 units Western Bulldogs-Richmond under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

Port Adelaide-West Coast

Intriguing clash with the flat track bully Eagles up against the red hot Power. The Eagles certainly get their chance to atone at a venue where they have won four of five games but have overall they have only covered 4 of their last 13 away from home. Power’s form has been eye-catching and I lean towards them covering the line.

My main interest is in the total match score going under. Both teams are good defensive outfits with the Power conceding 71 PPG and the Eagles 86 PPG. The Power do average a high 117 PPG but they have beaten up on struggling teams in achieving this and their scoring dropped to 82 PPG against better defensive sides Adelaide and GWS. All up the Power have gone under in 16 of their last last 24 home games. I also like the fact that sunset is just after 5:30pm so the second half will effectively be a night game and conducive to lower scores.  Importantly, the last five head to head clashes have yielded 180, 146, 126, 163 and 148 points all under the line of 185.5 we recommended our subscribers bet under on Tuesday night.

Bet 1.5 units Port Adelaide-West Coast under 185.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

St Kilda v GWS – A good test for GWS against a Saints outfit that plays its best football at Etihad and has covered the spread in 8 of it’s last 13 home games. Etihad holds no fears for GWS and they have won 6 of their last 8 there including a 126-79 defeat of Saints last year. GWS invested some emotional energy in their revenge win over the Western Bulldogs last start and if they are not switched on at Etihad, it would not surprise to see the Saints score an upset.  Danger game!

North Melbourne v Adelaide – The Crows have covered the line in 13 of their last 19 day games. They have been covering some big lines with aplomb and I lean towards them doing it again versus the Kangas in Hobart. Also lean towards the match going over with the Crows going over in 15 of their last 19 day games but the total match score line is a little high for my liking.

Collingwood v Carlton – Clash between two old rivals coming off a last start win and looking to keep in touch with the top eight for as long as possible. I can’t possibly have either side with an degree of confidence but given a four goal start, Carlton would be in the match for a long way in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 26 of the last 38 day games. Also lean towards the under with Pies going under in 9 of their last 13 home games.

Gold Coast v Geelong – I like the Cats to bounce back here against a Suns outfit that has only covered the line in 3 of their last 13 night games. Slight lean towards the over with the last five clashes between these two sides yielding between 194 and 216 points.

Sydney v Brisbane – Has an 0-6 side ever been sent out as seven goal favourites in an AFL match? I would not be backing Sydney to cover the line with stolen money even against a Lions outfit missing the inspirational Beams. Sydney needed a controversial umpires decision to hold off Brisbane at the Gabba last year and the Lions have improved since. Lean towards the Lions covering here, particularly in their preferred day time slot.

Melbourne v Hawthorn – The Hawks continue to struggle covering the line having now failed to cover the line in 21 of their last 30 games and the bookies have been slow to set lines based purely on their current form. The Hawks have had one more day to recover than the Dees but I don’t see it helping here and lean towards the Dees covering.

Fremantle v Essendon – The Dons have been dismal interstate recently covering only 3 of  their last 13 games outside of Victoria and this includes 2015 when they had a full contingent of players to choose from. I lean strongly toward the improving Freo covering the line here and the market agrees with the line moving up to five points following support for Freo.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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