AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 6


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 6

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +5.14 units | 8 winners / 10 bets | strike rate 80.0%

2014-2017: Profit +67.34 units | 116 winners / 195 bets | strike rate 59.5%

AFL Round 6 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units GWS-Western Bulldogs under 185.5 $1.91 Bet365

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

GWS, St Kilda, Sydney, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, West Coast, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide

Game Previews

GWS v Western Bulldogs

Ripper game to kick off the week with GWS primed to avenge their preliminary final defeat at the hands of the Dogs. GWS are building an enviable record at Manuka Oval and with a stronger form line than the Dogs, deserve to be three goal favourites for this match. GWS have covered 29 of their last 42 as favourites but the Dogs just don’t get blown out and have only lost 3 of their last 31 matches by 21 points or more so there is no bet to be had here. Happy to sit on the fence and watch a great game.

My main interest in this game lies with the total match score. I am expecting a fierce arm wrestle similar to last year’s preliminary final and expect both coaches to have a strong focus on winning the contested ball. We are now six weeks into the season and both sides should be at or near peak aerobic fitness for this match and I don’t expect to see much player fatigue resulting in easy coast to coast goals in red time as is common in the opening rounds. Furthermore, as both sides are coming into this match off a six day backup, we are less likely to see a run and gun shootout. In fact, the Dogs have gone under in 20 of their last 27 games off a six day break while GWS have gone under in 17 of their last 25 games off a six day break. For good measure, GWS have also gone under in 12 of their last 14 night games while the Dogs have gone under in 10 of their last 13 away games. The market agrees with our assessment and since our Tuesday night SMS recommending subscribers bet under 185.5, the line has moved at least 2 points down to 183.5.

Bet 2 units GWS-Western Bulldogs under 185.5 $1.91 Bet365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Hawthorn v St Kilda -The monkey may be off the Hawks back but the jury is still out on whether they can sustain the kind of effort they showed against the insipid Eagles. They have also had a poor cover record since the start of last season and have only covered 9 of their last 27 games and 3 of their last 14 day games. Likewise, St Kilda have a notoriously poor interstate record, covering less than a third of their games interstate over the past three seasons. Danger game!

Carlton v Sydney – Every man and his dog is expecting Sydney to kick start their season against the Blues but let me out of it – the Swans have only covered the line in 4 of their last 8 at the G and Carlton do play their best footy in the day, covering in 25 of their last 37 day matches. This match is best left alone.

Brisbane v Port Adelaide – Lean towards Port covering here with the Lions 15-34 ATS across their last 49 games while the Power have proven that they can run up the score this season. Also lean towards the over with the Lions going over in 11 of their last 13 home games. However, I feel that the total match score line is a little high to make it a bet.

North Melbourne v Gold Coast- Two last start losers – one of whom has forgotten how to win and the other who has lost 13 straight without defensive talisman, May. The Suns have also covered in only 3 of their last 12 night games. Slight lean towards North. Strong lean towards the under with North going under in their last 3 games and 9 of their last 13 at home.

West Coast v Fremantle – Time and time again, we’ve seen the Eagles rebound with a strong home effort after having their colours lowered interstate and I lean towards the same happening here where they have covered 21 of their last 27. The market agrees with the line moving a point or two towards the Eagles since Monday. Strong lean towards the under with these sides big under sides at night – Eagles have gone under in 21 of last 29 at night and Freo have gone under in 25 of last 32 at night. However, with West Coast playing three 200 point games this season and Freo playing two 200 point games, backing the under is too risky for me.

Essendon v Melbourne – 6 of the last 7 clashes have between these two outfits have been won by the underdog. We don’t like unpredictability even when recent results tell us to expect unpredictability! So, we’ll just watch this. Smallest of leans towards Melbourne. I also lean towards the under with four of the last five head to head clashes being low scoring arm wrestles well under the total match score line set for this match.

Geelong v Collingwood – The Cats are getting results at the moment but are heavily reliant on Dangerfield and Sellwood and I don’t see them having the necessary depth to compete with GWS and Adelaide at the business end of the season. Nonetheless, they should account for Collingwood here. I note Collingwood’s midfield has done enough to keep them in games with their biggest of their four losses being by 19 points however, I can’t consider backing them to cover the near five goal start as they have only covered the line in 7 of their last 23 day games.

Adelaide v Richmond – Cracking game! At home, I have a strong lean towards Adelaide covering the five goal line and note they have covered 11 of their last 15 at home. The Crows form line includes a thumping win over GWS and is clearly superior to Richmond’s. I expect the Crows to cover but am not in the business of betting against teams on a five game winning streak, no matter how many questions I have over their roster or form line.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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