AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 5


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 5

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit 2.43 units | 6 winners / 8 bets | strike rate 75.0%

2014-2017 – Profit +64.63 units | 114 winners / 193 bets | strike rate 59.1%

AFL Round 5 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Western Bulldogs-Brisbane over 184.5 $1.90 Unibet

Bet 1 unit St Kilda-Geelong over 182.5 $1.91 Bet 365

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS, Fremantle, Geelong, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon

Game Previews

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

The Lions have a lot of things going against them here – they travel to face the Premiers off a six day break and have only covered the line in 15 of their last 48 games in 5 of their last 20 interstate games. However, while I have confidence in teams like Adelaide and the West Coast to cover seven goal lines at home, I have no such confidence in the Dogs. They rarely put a big margin on their opponents and have only won by more than 43 points twice in their last 25 games.

However, I do like the over in this match. While the Lions are not leaking points like they did under Leppitsch, Fagan is encouraging them to take chances rebounding the ball out of their defensive 50. As the Lions skill levels are not quite there yet, I expect the Dogs will get numerous chances to score off turnovers while the likes of Beams, Rockliff and Rich will ensure that the Lions find some points also. Further the Lions have gone over the total match score line in 16 of their last 19 games off a six day break. The market agrees with my assessment and has moved 2 to 5 points towards the over since Tuesday.

Bet 2 units Western Bulldogs-Brisbane over 184.5 $1.90 Unibet

St Kilda v Geelong

Interesting test for the Saints here. They haven’t met the lofty expectations arising from their promising form last year yet haven’t been that far off the pace. They get their chance to make a statement at home against Geelong whom they have beaten and drawn in their last two clashes, both at this venue. I have a slight lean towards the Saints covering a two goal line.

However, I’m more interested in the total match score line here. Both sides have gone over the total match score line available in 3 of their 4 games this season while the last two clashes yielded 183 and 194 points. With the exception of a first half hiccup against the Hawks, the in form Geelong attack will keep the scoreboard ticking over. The Saints have been hitting the scoreboard also, albeit with a lot of behinds

Bet 1 St Kilda-Geelong over 182.5 $1.91 Bet 365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Port Adelaide v Carlton – With the Blues traveling interstate for the first time this season, all signs point towards Port giving the young Carlton outfit an old fashioned hiding with the moving from -33.5 to-42.5 in Port’s favour. I have a very strong lean towards Port as they have covered 25 of their last 35 at night while Carlton have only covered 4 of their last 18 at night. However, there is just a little too much risk involved with Carlton winning three of their last five against Port.

Gold Coast v Adelaide – I expect Adelaide to cover the five goal line away, noting that the Suns have lost their last 12 games without defensive talisman, May. I also lean towards the over with the Crows going over in 20 of their last 26 away games and 3 out of 4 games so far this season.

Sydney v GWS – Intriguing clash and you would think Sydney will put in an almighty effort to break their losing skid. Lean towards GWS and their proven 28-13 cover record as favourites over the last few seasons. I also lean towards the under with GWS going under in 11 of their last 13 night games but think the bookies have the line right for this one.

Fremantle v North Melbourne – Strong lean towards the under with Freo going under in 24 of their last 31 at night and 10 of their last 11 at night. However, there’s a little too much risk involved in making it a bet with Freo going over 179.5 in 3 of 4 games this season and North going over 179.5 in 2 of 4 games this season.

Hawthorn v  West Coast- The Hawks have now failed to cover the line in 18 of their last 26 games and were dismal in the second half against Geelong. Can’t have this West Coast outfit that has yet to consistently cover the spread on the road. Wouldn’t touch this game unlike a big punter who has plonked $50k on the Hawks straight out at $3.10 according to some mail that has been whispered in my ear.

Richmond v Melbourne – Another good test for the in form Tigers against their recent bogey side, Melbourne. These sides have had a number of arm wrestles in recent years – a trend that was broken by a 225 point shootout last year. Melbourne have also yielded over 200 points in three of four games this year. I’m sitting on the fence here.

Essendon v Collingwood – Their has been a little money for the Dons this week with some bookies moving the line 1 point towards the Dons. The Dons have covered the line in 9 of their last 12 while the nocturnal Pies lost another day game last week and have failed to cover the line in 15 of their last 22 day games. However, with both sides dismal last start losers, I’d prefer not to get involved.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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