AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 4


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 4

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: P/L 3.06 units | 4 winners / 5 bets | strike rate 80.0%

2014-2017 – Profit +65.26 units | 112 winners / 190 bets | Strike Rate 58.9%

AFL Round 4 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Western Bulldogs under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 0.5 units Richmond -17.5 $1.92 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units – Hawthorn-Geelong over 185.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, GWS, Gold Coast, Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Geelong

Game Previews

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

The Dogs return home of  a surprise loss to Freo and have a six day turnaround to contend with in this inaugural Friday game. The Dogs have been a bit patchy this year while the Kangas although playing a largely positive brand of footy are 0-3. Kangas have covered 22 of their last 32 games as a home state dog and I have a slight lean towards them covering a four goal start.

What i want to play is the total match score. After 16 of the first 18 games went over the total match score line, 8 of the 9 games in Round when under the opening total match score lines! This is in part due to the bookies setting higher lines, the players starting to run out games better and of course some inclement weather. Both these teams went under last weekend after going over in their first two matches. The Dogs were a big under team last year and have now gone under in 18 of their last 27 games. They have also gone under in 19 of their last 26 games off a six day break since 2012. Returning to Etihad off a six day break, I’m expecting the Dogs to knuckle down, win the contested possession and control the game on their terms. I also note the last five clashes between these two outfits, all at Etihad, have generated just 108, 109, 169, 170 and 137 points – all under the line set for this match.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Western Bulldogs under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365

Brisbane v Richmond

The Tigers have been surprise packets this season and travel to the Gabba to take on their Bunnies – the Lions – whom they have beaten nine times in sucession, the last two wins by 42 and 79 points.  I’ve nothing but admiration for the way the Lions have gone about their business under Chris Fagan. However, the fact remains that they only beat the Gold Coast, lost to Essendon (who subsequently lost to Carlton) and lost to the previously winless Saints. Further, the Lions have only covered the spread in 15 of their last 47 matches.  They will be up against it playing a Richmond team that has favourable match ups on them. Richmond also have a solid formline, through Collingwood and the West Coast in their last two starts. The market agrees with my assessment moving 1-2 points towards Richmond since Monday.

Bet 0.5 units Richmond -17.5 $1.92 Sportsbet

Hawthorn V Geelong

Like most pundits, I expected a Hawthorn decline this season but gees, I didn’t foresee a freefall of this magnitude. They won’t get any mercy from Geelong who will be more than happy to dish out further pain. Despite their solid form, the jury remains out on Geelong’s premiership credentials as I can’t see enough contributions to support the All Australian play from Danger and Sellwood.

I’m expecting a high scoring shootout in fine weather on Easter Monday. Hawthorn’s defence has been exposed as old and slow this season and could be badly exposed by the Cats forwards who have been in fine form with their set shots in recent weeks.  Both sides have featured in two 200+ point games so far this season and all their matches have gone over the line set for this game.  The last three regular season clashes between these two sides have generated 202, 204 and 184 points. Back at home, Hawthorn should be more potent in attack and keep the scoreboard ticking over. The market agrees with my assessment firming up to 4-5 points towards the over since Monday.

Bet 2 units – Hawthorn-Geelong over 185.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

West Coast v Sydney – The Eagles have the best home cover record in footy having covered 20 of their last 26 at Domain Stadium. Against a Swans outfit who have eight players with a combined experience of less than 40 games, I lean towards the Eagles covering and the market agrees, with the  Eagles firming since Monday

Melbourne v Fremantle – Melbourne are vulnerable this missing key players including talisman Gawn against a resurgent Freo outift. Freo have only covered 3 of their last 9 away so I have little confidence in them covering. Slightest of leans towards Melbourne and an under play on the total match score line.

GWS v Port Adelaide  – GWS have developed quite a strong record at Manuka Oval over the past two seasons and have also covered 27 of their last 40 games as favourites. On the flip side, Port have covered the line in 16 of their last 22 games  as an interstate dog so there are arguments for both sides. What I do like is the over play with both sides scoring freely thus far this season – this play fell marginally short of qualifying for a bet.

Carlton v Gold Coast – Two surprise victors last start square off after pressure relieving wins. Not a game I want to be involved in at all. Suns are horrible away covering just 7 of their last 23 away matches while the Blues are dismal at night covering just 4 of their last 17 under lights. Toss a coin. Very slight lean towards Carlton locking the game up and going under.

St Kilda v Brisbane – What would have been penciled in as an easy win for the Saints when the draw came out is suddenly not so easy with the 0-2 Saints desperate to get off the mark. The Lions have only covered the line in 5 of their last 20 interstate matches and 14 of their last 46 matches overall but have clearly improved under Coach Fagan. Also, let’s just wait for the Saints to get a win on the board first before we consider backing them to cover five goal lines.

Adelaide v Essendon – The Crows are the form team of the competition and have covered 10 of their last 14 at home and I and the market expect them to do likewise against the Dons with the line moving a goal towards the Crows since Monday. A post Showdown letdown is the only danger.

Collingwood v St Kilda – The line has moved up to three points towards the Pies since Monday but here I will go against the market move. I rate the Saints best effort this season – an away loss to the Eagles higher than the Pies scrappy one point win against a young Swans outfit. So a lean towards the Saints who had a comfortable 29 point win over the Pies at this ground last year. The Pies are also in their least preferred day timeslot and have only covered the line in 7 of their last 21 day games.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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