AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 3


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 3

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: P/L 2.15 units | 3 winners / 4 bets | strike rate 75.0%

2014-2017 – Profit +64.35 units | 111 winners / 189 bets | Strike Rate 58.7%

AFL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.91 Bet 365

TBA Bet North Melbourne-GWS over TBA (pending final weather) – Update BOM forecasts 64-73% chance of 1-5mm rain in Hobart. Now NO bet in the NM-GWS match. Too much risk backing the over.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Sydney, GWS, West Coast, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, St Kilda, Essendon, Hawthorn

Game Previews

Sydney v Collingwood

Once again, the money has arrived for Collingwood with the Pies firming three to five points since Monday for what is a desperation clash for both sides. Yes, there are some key numbers in favour of the Pies who have covered the line in 15 of their last 21 night games and 7 of their last 10 interstate games. However, it’s hard to put any great trust in two teams who are 0-2 and I’m happy to just watch and learn.

However, I do see a play in the total match score line. With 16 of the first 18 games this season high scoring affairs that went over the total match score line, the bookies have reacted quickly and set some very high lines. The line of 188.5 available for this match is quite high for a night game which could potentially be played on a ground dampened by light afternoon showers and dew. Despite Sam Reid’s efforts last start, I see the loss of Tippett giving the Pies defence an opportunity to gang up on Buddy at times which could reduce Sydney’s scoring output. Furthermore, the last five clashes between these outfits have yielded scores of 186 or lower. The market agrees with my assessment and since touching 188.5 has firmed a point or two with some bookies. There is some risk attached to backing the under while high scoring prevails early in the season, so we’ll just bet the one unit this week and wait for the low risk under bets that will present themselves later this season.

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.91 Bet365

North Melbourne v GWS

The Kangaroos have performed admirably so far this season and it will be interesting to see how they set up their game against GWS at a venue where they have won 9 of 12 games. I lean towards GWS covering the line thanks to their distinct class edge but can’t have them as this is only their second ever game at Blundstone Arena with the last coming in 2012.

All signs point to another high scoring affair with GWS having an array of scoring options and the Kangas willing to chance their hand in attack. Furthermore, GWS games this season have yielded 218 and 238 total points while the Kangas have yielded 223 and 229 total points – well over the total match score line available for this game. The market agrees with my assessment and has firmed five points towards the over since. Unfortunately, their is presently an 57% chance of light showers in Hobart around 3pm tomorrow so we will hold fire on any betting advice until we can be sure that no heavy rain is forecast before the conclusion of the match.

TBA Bet North Melbourne-GWS over TBA (pending final weather)

Update BOM forecasts 64-73% chance of 1-5mm rain in Hobart. Now NO bet in the NM-GWS match. Too much risk backing the over.

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Richmond v West Coast – Lean towards the West Coast winning this on the basis of a slightly stronger formline than Richmond who have only played the winless Blues and Pies. The ATS market  has moved up to five points towards West Coast since Monday. However, I am exercising caution as the Eagles have only covered the line in 4 of their last 11 matches away from home.

Geelong v Melbourne – Now we get to see what Melbourne are made of up against Geelong and with some key outs due to suspension. Even the Dees broke a long runs of outs at Etihad in Round 1, I still lean towards Geelong covering at a ground where the Dees have lost XX of their last XX. The market agrees and has moved up to five points towards Geelong since Monday.

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs – It’s safe to say that the Bulldogs will not be mucking around this week as was the case in the meaningless final round clash last year won by Freo. The total match score line is quite large for a Freo home game. With the Dogs going under the line in 9 of their last 12 away matches and Freo surely desperate to give a good account of themselves, I have a slight lean to the under.

Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Cracker of a Showdown! I think the bookies have the line about right and I’m not keen to play. The Crows have covered the line in 16 of their last 23 games at the Adelaide Oval while the nocturnal Power have covered the line in 13 of their last 19 night games so there are strong cases for both sides. Let’s just watch and enjoy!

St Kilda v Brisbane – What would have been penciled in as an easy win for the Saints when the draw came out is suddenly not so easy with the 0-2 Saints desperate to get off the mark. The Lions have only covered the line in 5 of their last 20 interstate matches and 14 of their last 46 matches overall but have clearly improved under Coach Fagan. Also, let’s just wait for the Saints to get a win on the board first before we consider backing them to cover five goal lines.

Carlton v Essendon – The Blues continue to play better football in the day time, covering the spread against Melbourne in a day time clash last week, a week after being pounded by Richmond in a night time clash. Blues have now covered the line in 24 of their last 36 day games. Lean towards Essendon winning but it would not surprise to see the Blues turn it into a scrappy game and cover the line.

Gold Coast v Hawthorn – Gees the Suns were diabolical last week and you wouldn’t back them with stolen money at the moment. After being hammered in the media this week, Hawthorn would be very wary of a possible bounce back effort from the Suns at Metricon. While the Hawks are also winless they come into this game with a strong formline through the unbeaten Dons and Crows. Having led the Crows for a good portion of the match, a repeat effort should see the Hawks to strong for the Suns. However, the Hawks can’t be backed either, having only covered the line in 2 of their last 9 interstate matches and 18 of their last 26 matches overall.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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