AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 10


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Round 10

AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.

2017: Profit +11.39 units | 13 winners / 16 bets | strike rate 81.3%

2014-2017: Profit +73.59 units | 121 winners / 201 bets | strike rate 60.2%

AFL Round 10 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit – Richmond-Essendon under 181.5 $1.91 Bet365

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).

We recognise that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Collingwood, North Melbourne, West Coast

Game Previews

Richmond v Essendon

Enticing Dreamtime at the G clash. While Richmond have been lambasted for a number of chokes in recent weeks, if we look at their overall form objectively, it hasn’t been that bad. I’m expecting them to rebound this week against an Essendon outfit they have beaten in six consecutive matches.

My main interest is in the total match score play where I note that the Tigers have gone under the total match score line in 7 of their 9 games this season while the Dons have gone under in 24 of their last 38 night matches. These sides rarely have shootouts with the last five clashes yielding 185, 172, 121, 161 and 172 points. Richmond have one of the AFLs better defences allowing 83 PPG while the Dons allow 95 PPG. Importantly, I noticed the Dons stiffened their defence a little last start albeit assisted by poor kicking by the Eagles. If that defence is maintained this week, it will go a long way to ensuring a low scoring game. With both teams 5-4 and 20 points, the loser will slip behind in the race for the top eight so this is a genuine desperation game and I expect there is a good chance it will descend into an arm wrestle. The market agrees with ours assessment and the line has firmed after opening at 183.5-186.5 points on Monday.

Bet 1 unit – Richmond-Essendon under 181.5 $1.91 Bet365

Stats That Matter

AFL Statsman provides the key stats and background that he has considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Geelong v Port Adelaide – Great match up between two of the AFLs highest scoring teams with both averaging over 100 PPG. I lean towards Geelong covering the spread and continuing their rebound of the back of last week’s improved effort against the Dogs. Cats have gone over the total match score line in 7 of 9 games this season however Port have gone under in 26 of their last 37 night games – two key stats that cancel each other out. I have a  lean to the over.

Sydney v Hawthorn – Strong lean towards Sydney covering the line with the Hawks having covered only 2 of their last 11 interstate and 9 of their last 32 overall. The market agrees with the Swans going from -27.5 on Monday to -32.5 today.

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda – Desperation game for both sides that could very well end up an arm wrestle. Dogs have gone under in 22 of their last 33 and I lean towards the under also.

Melbourne v Gold Coast – The least attractive betting match of the round, with both sides coming off last start losses, Suns coming off a two week break and distant away flight and the match being played in the NT. Suns have only covered 8 of their last 25 away so I have a slight lean to Dees with little confidence.

Adelaide v Fremantle – There has been much talk about Freo being lucky to be in fifth place on the back of a low percentage and a number of close wins. I have a strong lean to Crows as they have covered the line in 12 of their last 17 at home while Freo have only covered the line in 18 of their last 26 off a six day break. Despite my strong questions over Freo’s form, I have to respect fact that they have managed to win 6 of their last 7. The market agrees with the Crows moving from -31.5 on Monday to -39.5 today.

Collingwood v Brisbane – I have continually mentioned whether the Pies are playing in the day time and night time this season and with good reason – their best results continue to be at night. They still under perform in the day time winning only one day or twilight match from five attempts this season while going 2-2 at night. There is little to like about either side with the Pies covering the spread in just 8 of their last 25 games and the Lions covering in just 16 of their last 53 games. With a questionable forward line, it’s hard to see the Pies covering a seven goal line so I have a very slight lean towards the Lions covering the line.

Carlton v North Melbourne – Some key stats favour both sides with the Blues covering the ATS line in 28 of their last 41 day games and North covering 10 of their last 13 at the MCG. Lean towards the Kangas continuing the momentum from last week’s vital win and covering the line.

West Coast v GWS – Credit to the Giants for continuing to grind out wins despite a long injury list. I expect the flat track bully Eagles to rebound at home and live up to their long term record of covering the line in 22 of their last 29 home starts.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.