AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Finals Week 3
AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Finals Week 3
AFL Statsman’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays are listed below. Each AFL Preview and Sports Betting Tips thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by mid morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).
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AFL Preview and Sports Betting Tips
AFL Finals Week 3
2015 results – 34/51, Strike Rate 67%, Profit +38.17 units
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Finals Week 3 Recommended Bet List
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Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne Under 179.5 $1.90 Luxbet
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Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons
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Individual Game Tips
Hawthorn, West Coast
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Game Previews
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West Coast v North Melbourne
The Eagles were simply stunning during their 32 demolition of Hawthorn last start and will line up as deserved favourites for this preliminary final. I expect Nic Nat and Goldstein to cancel each other out with the Eagles proving too good across the ground. With a two week break and Brownlow winner Priddis to return, the Eagles have one foot on the plane to Melbourne. While the Kangaroos have won their last two starts against West Coast and have a very good 19-9 record at covering the line off a 7 day break, the 30.5 line for this match is just about right and we won’t be playing that.
The total match score line has been set towards the high side in recognition of the Eagles’ potent attack but it’s worth noting that the Eagles’ equally potent defence has ensured their last two matches have yielded just 160 and 155 points. Further, North have gone under the total match score line in 17 of their last 25 interstate trips and four of their last five matches this season have yielded under 179.5 points. The head to head record tells a similar tale with the last two clashes between these sides yielding just 160 and 126 points.
Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne Under 179.5 $1.90 Luxbet
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The Stats that Matter
I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.
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Fremantle v Hawthorn – A mouth-watering clash with so many questions to be answered. Can Hawthorn maintain their good recent record versus Freo and keep their three-peat dream alive? Can Freo finally kick a winning score in a big game? Hawthorn will start as favourites after their electrifying win last start but the key stats are in favour of both sides. Hawthorn are 17-8 against the line as an interstate favourite across 2013-15 while the Dockers have covered the line in 25 of their last 52 matches when enjoying at least a seven day break between games. I have a very slight lean towards Hawthorn given the question marks over the Dockers attack and their big game temperament but otherwise this game is too close to call and should be enjoyed be one and all. I note the Dockers have gone under the total match score line in 20 of their last 26 night games and the market has moved two points towards the under since Monday but I have too much respect for the Hawk’s offence to take them on.
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