AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 8

AFL Round 8 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit GWS-Gold Coast over 197.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Richmond-Sydney under 185.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units West Coast -40.5 $1.92 Sportsbet  BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS, Collingwood, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, West Coast

Game Previews

GWS v Gold Coast

The Suns have made six changes as injury and poor form bite. It’s hard to see them having the necessary cohesion to stop GWS from racking up a cricket score while the form of Lynch up front will ensure they manage to put some point on the board themselves. The Suns last four matches have yielded over 200 points. GWS also yielded over 200 in three consecutive matches before the streak was ended by a night game against Freo at Subiaco. A warm, dry day in Western Sydney will ensure a fast track for a twilight shootout. The market agrees, moving one point towards the over since Monday.

Bet 1 unit GWS-Gold Coast over 197.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Richmond v Sydney

The rampant Swans travel to the G to take on an under siege Tigers outfit who are yet to cover the spread this season – currently sitting at an inglorious 0-7 ATS. However, the Swans have not played their best football at the G in recent seasons only covering 2 of their last 9 visits. The Swans yielded less than 150 points in their two matches at the G last year. They have a history of arm wrestles with the Tigers with the last five clashes with Richmond yielding between 113 and 173 points. Total match scores in 2016 have had a lean to the over in day and twilight, but still have a slight lean to the under at night. The market agrees with the line moving 4 points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units – Richmond-Sydney under 185.5 $1.90 Luxbet

West Coast v St Kilda

This game suits the ‘flat track bully’ Eagles to a tee. They have covered 13 of their last 17 as a 30.5 plus favourite and face an opponent who have only covered 8 of their last 27 matches away from the G and Etihad. The Eagles have won their last two head to head by 95 and 53 and will be keen to rebound from another road loss and subsequent media criticism. I expect them to atone in their preferred day timeslot. The market agrees, with the line moving up to 4 points towards the Eagles since Monday.

Bet 2 units – West Coast -40.5 $1.92 Sportsbet

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Essendon v North Melbourne – Essendon have only covered 9 of their last 29 at Etihad but I can’t back the Kangas to cover the half century start as their biggest win this season has only been a 38 point margin and they put the cue in the rack versus the Saints late last week.

Hawthorn v Fremantle – Lean towards Freo with the start – they weren’t disgraced against GWS, unlike the Hawks who have been inconsistent and have only covered 2 out of 7 this season. However, I respect the Hawks in day game as they have covered 14 of their last 20 in the day.

Brisbane v Collingwood – Lions save their best for home while Pie have been poor in recent interstate trips. However, Leppitsch is the worst favourite’s coach in the AFL losing four of his last five games as favourite. Lean toward the under with a high line for a night game and Pies 17-4 under interstate across 2013-16.

Carlton v Port Adelaide – Lean toward the over with Port going over in 9 of their last 10 at Etihad 4 of the last 5 head to head going over 200. But the Blues have only gone over 190 once this season.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – After the gift of 7 straight games at Etihad (let’s not mention free kicks!) the Dogs leave the comforts of the Dome. Dogs lost 7 of their 10 games away from Etihad last year including the last 4 in a row. Lean toward Dees with the start. Dees have covered 5 of this season.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.