AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 18

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB

Adelaide v Essendon – TBA

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

Hawthorn v Carlton

While the Hawks remain the standout team in the competition in terms of wins and losses, they clearly haven’t been putting teams away like they used to. They have only won by more than 48.5 points twice in 17 games this season. The Blues have covered 21 of their last 30 day games and despite losing six in a row, they have only been blown out in one of those games. They have been playing with spirit and I expect them to be well prepared for this contest with Bolton up against his old team for the first time.  The Blues will also be advantaged with a seven day turnaround compared to six days for Hawthorn.

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB


Adelaide v Essendon

Was very keen on Adelaide to cover in a match going over given the last four clashes have yielded 230, 193, 199 and 204 points but I’m very risk averse and refrain from playing big lines and overs when wet weather is forecast. I’ll be keeping a close watch on the weather with a view to advising of a potential bet if the weather is favourable.

Potential bet TBA


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Western Bulldogs – The desperately unlucky Dogs continue to lose players to injury but continue to fight hard. They have been involved in a few arm wrestles in recent weeks as have Geelong. With the loser likely to struggle to make the top four, there is a good chance of a classic high stakes arm wrestle here. Both teams have gone under in 12 of their 17 matches this season and the Dogs have also gone under in 19 of their last 24 with six days between games. A slight chance of a shower is forecast and will further increase the chance of the match going under. Was keen to bet the under but really need a line of 160.5 or higher.


GWS v Richmond – GWS have covered the line in 22 of 31 games as favourites, but having never beaten Richmond before I can’t have them. They are also a risk to cover the big line off a six day break.


Collingwood v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 13 of 17 games this season and I lean towards this continuing but the bookies have nailed the total spot on in their markets.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide – Port are in their preferred night timeslot having covered 20 of their last 29 night games while the Lions have only covered 1 of their last 8 night games and 12 of their last 39 games overall. Lean towards Port covering and the over in a high scoring shootout.


North Melbourne v St Kilda – Hats off to Boomer. The market has moved towards 2-3 points towards the Kangas since Tuesday morning and I lean towards them also as they have covered in 27 of their last 38 off a seven day break.


Melbourne v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over in 31 of their last 45 day games. With both sides out of contention, I lean towards the over in what shapes as a potential late season day time shootout.


Fremantle v Sydney – Swans have covered the line in 28 of their last 42 day games and I expect them to prevail in a low scoring clash.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.