AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 17

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, GWS


Game Previews

Collingwood v North Melbourne

High stakes game with North desperate to arrest their slide and the Pies still a mathematical chance of scraping into the eight. Not keen to play the line with two last start losers involved but note the market has moved 4-5 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning. I think there is a good chance an arm wrestle could eventuate while the loss of Waite will reduce North’s chance of kicking a big score. North have gone under the total match score line in 10 of their last 11 games. Collingwood have gone under the total match score line in 36 of their last 50 night games and in six of their last eight games this season. I also note it is the Pies first game at Etihad this season and they may take a while to find their groove at this ground. The market agrees and has moved two points towards the under since Tuesday morning

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


West Coast v Melbourne

This match represents another opportunity to the Eagles to cement their bully boy status at home. The bookies have the line about right and I note it has firmed 1-2 points towards Melbourne this week. I am leaning towards this match going under. The Eagles may have won four in a row but to my eye, their attack has not been firing on all cylinders, even before the Carlton match with big scores against the Lions and Dons achieved with the help of a 67% conversion rate. Melbourne have a woeful record at Domain Stadium recording 54, 53, 40, 40 and 58 points in their last five visits and although an improved outfit, it’s a big mental hurdle. Furthermore, eight of Melbourne’s last nine matches at Domain have yielded under 186.5 points. The Eagles have gone under in 12 of 16 games this season and four of Melbourne’s last five  games have gone under 186.5 points. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 174, 172 and 153 points. Light showers are forecast throughout the day and if there is any substance to them, it will further enhance the prospect of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Carlton – Both sides play their best football in the day, with the Blues covering in 20 of their last 29 day games and the Swans covering in 28 of their last 41 day games. Danger game!


Gold Coast v Fremantle – Freo have gone under in 11 of 16 games this season however the Suns have gone over in 30 of their last 44 day games. Slightest of leans to the under with the Suns lacking midfield firepower.


Western Bulldogs v St Kilda – Dogs have yielded under 170.5 in their last four matches and the Saints have yielded over 170.5 in their last five matches. Slightest of leans towards the under with the Dogs  usually controlling the tempo well at Etihad.


Geelong v Adelaide – Cats have been a big under side this season going under in 11 of their 16 games. Crows have gone over in 12 of their last 16 interstate trips but more recently they have gone under in five of their last seven games this season with low yields in their last two games. Lean to the under.


Essendon v Brisbane – Lions have only covered the line in 11 of their last 38 games but  I wouldn’t touch this game with stolen money. Slight lean to the over with Lions going over in 12 of 16 games this season and Essendon yielding at least 182 points in each of their last five games.


Hawthorn v Richmond – Tigers have beaten the Hawks in three of the last five clashes but with Hardwick playing rookies, there won’t be an upset here. Strong lean to the Hawks but their cover record is average this year.


Port Adelaide v GWS – Lean towards Giants on the back of their comfortable victory over Power earlier this year but they are yet to win from three appearance at the Adelaide Oval.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.