AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 16

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Sydney, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, GWS

Game Previews

Adelaide v Collingwood

Collingwood have a strong long term under record going under in 18 of their last 24 interstate and in 35 of their last 49 at night. While Adelaide have been a potent scoring team this season, only one of their last five matches have yielded over the 188.5 line available. Furthermore, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 153, 180 and 131 points. Neither team has had an ideal lead up to this match with Adelaide off a six day back up and Collingwood on a second consecutive interstate trip will slightly reduce the probability of a run and gun shootout.

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

St Kilda v Melbourne

Saints have won 13 straight against Melbourne who have lost 23 of their last 24 at Etihad. Demons return from a long interstate trip while the Saints back up from their last start win at the same venue. Strong lean towards the Saints covering however my main interest is in the under. Melbourne return from a low scoring Darwin match and four of their last five matches have yielded under the line set for this match. Likewise, four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the line set for this match.

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Sydney v Hawthorn – Lean towards a tight game and the under here with the Swans going under in 10 of 15 matches this year and 17 of their past 34 night matches. Two of the last three head to head clashes have also gone under. The market has moved 5-6 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Fremantle v Geelong – Freo have only covered 6 of their last 23 off a six day break. Lean towards the Cats.

Richmond v Essendon – The Dons have gone under the total match score line in 23 of their last 34 at the MCG and in 17 of their last 25 off a six day break. Further, the last five clashes head to head have gone under. However, this Dons outfit has been leaking points in the last month with their last four games yielding 207, 182, 207 and 194 points.

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide  – Port have gone over in 10 of their last 11 at Etihad. However, this is offset by the Kangas going under in 9 of their last 10 games.

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast – Dogs have won this regular Cairns clash on each of the last two occasions. Dogs have improved when travelling interstate this year, winning their last two trips to Sydney and Port Adelaide but the line is about right.

Carlton v West Coast – Blues have covered the line in 19 of their last 28 day games. However this is offset by the Eagles covering in 15 of their last 20 as a 30.5+ favourite. Lean towards the Eagles nonetheless as the Blues look like going into freefall.

Brisbane v GWS – The Lions have gone over in a league high 11 of 15 games this season and can rack points at the Gabba while GWS have the second best scoring average in the league. However, the forecast at present is for possible rain. We will be monitoring the forecast in the meantime.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.