AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 23

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda

Game Previews

West Coast v North Melbourne

High stakes clash will major ramifications for ladder positions that screams potential arm wrestle despite the daytime scheduling. Both teams have been dominant under sides this season with the Eagles going under in 10 of 14 games and the Kangas going under in 8 of 14 games including 8 of the last 9 games. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 135, 160 and 126 points. Last years preliminary final was marred by poor goal kicking hence the yield of just 135 points but even if both teams kicked 50%, the match would still have only yielded 175 points. Given the stakes, I anticipate a similar encounter here. Rain is forecast in the three days leading up to the match with clearing thunderstorms forecast for Sunday. Should we have a wet track, it will further enhance the probability of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365

St Kilda v Essendon

I’m very keen to take on Essendon and Brisbane over the last eight weeks when the opportunity presents itself. Essendon were competitive for three quarters last week before falling away badly late and they now lose Zaharakis. It would not surprise to see their season really freefall from here on. They also have a shocking record under the roof, losing ten straight and failing to cover the line in 22 of their last 33 at Etihad. St Kilda were again dismal interstate last week, but they have proven they can bounce back when at home. They have won four straight at Etihad defeating the Cats by 3, Blues by 32, Freo by 34 and Bombers by 46. For good measure, the Saints also beat the Bombers by 110 in Round 14 last year. The market agrees and has moved at least two points towards St Kilda since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Port have won three of their last four against the Hawks and have covered the line in 21 of their last 29 night games. Market has moved as much as 6 points towards Power since Tuesday morning.

Geelong v Sydney – Swans have not lost two in a row all season, recording convincing wins after their previous three losses.

GWS v Collingwood – Giants have covered the line in 20 of their last 28 as favourite while Pies are inferior in the day, covering only 5 of their last 19 under the sun. However, GWS is yet to beat the Pies.

Gold Coast v Brisbane – The Lions have failed to cover the line in 26 of their last 36 games however they lifted for the Sunshine Stoush earlier this year and with two weeks prep, I expect them to lift again for this game against little brother and then potentially go into freefall for the rest of the season. Danger game!

Western Bulldogs v Richmond – Dog have gone under in 11 of their last 17 night games but the market appears to be right for this one.

Melbourne v Fremantle – Demons have only covered the line in 9 of their last 27 interstate trips while Freo have covered in 40 of their last 64 games with a seven day or more break. Nonetheless I have a slight lean to Dees. Not keen to bet at a rarely used neutral venue.

Carlton v Adelaide – Blues have covered the line in 19 of 27 day games and Crows have gone over the total match score line in 20 of their last 26 day games.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.