AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 12

AFL Round 12 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne +4.5 $1.91 William Hill

Bet 2 units West Coast-Adelaide over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Carlton -8.5 $1.92 Luxbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, North Melbourne, West Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Sydney, Melbourne


Game Previews

Geelong v North Melbourne

Another great match up between the Scott brothers awaits with the Kangas firming slightly since the Hawkins suspension. Hawkins will be a crucial out given that the Kangas formidable defence is only allowing 79 points per game this season and has not allowed 100 points in their last 7 games. North have won six straight at Etihad and three straight against Geelong. While boasting a handsome long term record under the roof, the Cats have failed to win their last three trips to Etihad. North have the luxury of an eight day turnaround and have covered 26 of their last 36 with a turnaround of seven days or more. They have also covered 19 of their last 26 as a home state dog.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne +4.5 $1.91 William Hill


West Coast v Adelaide

Adelaide will try and establish their top four credentials when they bring their high octane attack to Subiaco where the Eagles will host a top eight side for the first time this season. The Crows have gone over in 7 out of 11 games and the last three head to head clashes with the Eagles have gone over. The Eagles have been dominant at home this season racking up scores of 132, 124, 125, 92 and 166 in their five home outings. While only two of these five Eagles home matches have gone over the total match score line, this is more a reflection of the impotence of the opposition in those five clashes. I expect Adelaide to bring considerably more scoring prowess than Gold Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane brought to Subiaco. The market agrees and has moved one point towards the over since Monday.

Bet 2 units West Coast-Adelaide over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB


St Kilda v Carlton

The Blues have won four straight versus the Saints and play in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 19 of the last 26. They have the advantage of an 8 day turnaround while the Saints have a 6 day turnaround from a road trip to Adelaide. Despite injuries to several key Saints, the market firmed five points in the Saints favour from Monday to Thursday. However, the market now agrees with our assessment and has  since firmed 5-7 points in favour of the Blues, representing an overall move of 1-2 points towards the Blue since Monday. The only danger I see is the Blues looking ahead to the bye and a week off.

Bet 2 units Carlton -8.5 $1.92 Luxbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Essendon v Hawthorn – Dons have only covered 10 of their last 31 at Etihad but Hawks have only covered 3 of 11 games this season. Playing the line is a toss of the coin job. Danger game!


Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs – Port have gone over the total match score line in 9 of their last 10 day games.


Brisbane v Fremantle – The struggling Lions are 10-23 at the spread across 2015-16 and have lost 8 straight against Freo. However, we need to see more from Freo before they are a betting proposition – a home win against Essendon is hardly a ringing endorsement.


St Kilda v Carlton – The Blues have won four straight versus the Saints and play in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 19 of the last 26. They have the advantage of an 8 day turnaround while the Saints have a 6 day turnaround from a distant road trip to Perth. However, there has been a five point move towards the Saints in several markets overnight.


Richmond v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over in 8 of 11 this season and in 29 of their last 42 day games. However, this is offset by Richmond yielding under 190 points in their last three games and four of the last five head to head clashes going under.


GWS v Sydney – Great clash – Lean towards the Swans covering against little brother. Also lean towards the under with three of the last five head to head clashes going under the total match score line set for this game.


Melbourne v Collingwood – Lean towards Melbourne covering against the Pies as they did earlier this season. The Pies have lost their last two against Paul Roos men and play in their detested day timeslot where they have failed to cover 13 of their last 18.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.