AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 11

AFL Round 11 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Richmond under 179.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units – Carlton -22.5 $1.92 CrownBet

Bet 2 units Fremantle-Essendon under 161.5 $1.91 Bet365  BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide

Game Previews

North Melbourne v Richmond

Grudge match with bad blood between these two sides after the Kangas smartly rested players in a loss to the Tigers in the final round last year only to turn the tables in the Elimination Final and knock Richmond out. I expect this game to be decided in the trenches and it could develop into an arm wrestle. After starting the season by going over in five consecutive games, the Kangas have now gone under in five consecutive games. The Tigers while now longer the prolific under team they were in 2015 and 2015 have still gone under in 19 of their last 27 matches with a six day break. The market agrees and has firmed five points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Richmond under 179.5 $1.91 Bet365

Carlton v Brisbane

The Lions put in an encouraging three quarter performance at the Gabba last weekend against a Hawthorn outfit going through the motions but still failed to cover a 44.5 point start after fading late. They have now failed to cover in 22 of their last 32 starts and travel south to face a resurgent Blues outfit playing in their preferred day timeslot where they have covered 18 of their last 25. The Lions have lost their five road matches by 77, 53, 69, 64 and 63 points this season and while I expect them to be plucky again, Carlton’s recent form is far superior and they should kick clear in the second half.

Bet 2 units – Carlton -22.5 $1.92 CrownBet

Fremantle v Essendon

I’m expecting a dour clash between two battling outfits and lean towards Freo getting off the mark. However, my interest lies in the under play with both sides going under in 7 of 10 games this season. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 132, 173 and 140 points and that was with more potent line ups that will take the field at Domain Stadium for this match. The market agrees and has moved 5 points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units Fremantle-Essendon under 161.5 $1.91 Bet365  BB

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Hawthorn v Melbourne – The Hawks form and stats have dipped despite their solid overall W-L record and ladder position. They have only covered 4 of 11 games this season and are best left alone until we see some evidence of their best form.

Geelong v GWS –  Back to back road games for GWS who have only won 5 of their last 16 road games. Market has moved 6-7 points towards Geelong since Monday but i’m happy to stay out of a game between two last start losers. Danger game!

Gold Coast v Sydney – Monsoonal conditions are forecast for South East Queensland on Saturday with 30-80mm currently forecast for the Gold Coast from noon. However, up to 200m is possible in some parts for the coast. The total match score line has dropped from 154.5 on Monday to 130.5 today! Swans will likely slog their way to a win but this game is definitely not a betting proposition. Danger game!

Collingwood v Port Adelaide – The Pies continue to struggle in daylight and have now only covered 5 of their last 17 day matches. I lean towards the Power who have firmed from +6.5 dogs on Monday to 2.5 point favourites today.

Western Bulldogs v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 7 of their 10 games this season and that trend is likely to continue against a strong defensive team in the Bulldogs who are back on their home track.

Adelaide v St Kilda – Saints have only covered 8 of their last 28 away from the MCG and Etihad and were obliterated by 103 points on their trip to Perth three weeks ago. Lean towards the Crows covering.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.