AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Finals Week 1

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

In recent years, the 6th versus 7th Elimination Final has provided the most wins to the lower ranked team in week one of the AFL Finals with the last 10 clashes shared evenly at five apiece between the teams finishing 6th and 7th. The Bulldogs dominated this season’s clash and the 83-75 scoreline did not reflect their dominance, albeit against an Eagles team that was struggling at the time. The Dogs have won four of their last ten against the Eagles and the 11 day break since their last game brings the Bulldogs into this contest. The Dogs are also adept at keeping the score tight and they rarely get blown out. Their worst loss this season was by 57 points to Geelong with their next worse losses by just 25 points to both Geelong (again) and GWS. I lean towards the Bulldogs covering the line in a low scoring arm wrestle and the market agrees, moving two to three points towards the Dogs since Monday.

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet


Sydney v GWS

Backing the top ranked team to beat the 4th ranked team in the Qualifying Final has been one of the most bankable bets over the past decade with the ladder leading winning the past nine Qualifying Finals against the fourth placed team. All of those wins have been by 20 points or more with the exception of last year when a slumping Fremantle side scraped past the Swans by 9 points. I’m keen to be on the Swans with their edge in finals experience and their 8-2 all time head to head record against little brother. The Swans are the AFL’s best defensive team, conceding only 67 points a game this season and I expect that to be the deciding factor. GWS like any young team in their finals debut have to be risked, especially as they have had two weeks to think about the game and play it in their head.

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Hawthorn – The footy gods (and AFL House) continue to smile on Hawthorn. They have a much needed 12 day break and will play at home. In a different world, they could easily be facing a trip to Simmonds Stadium on a six day turnaround. The team finishing second has won 7 of the last 10 Qualifying Finals and Geelong are in imposing form with a seven game winning streak. Lean towards Geelong to cover the line.


Adelaide v North Melbourne – The 5th placed team has a 6-4 record over the 8th place team in Elimination Finals over the past decade. On form, I have a strong lean towards the Crows covering the five goal line but am wary that the 14 day break will give North a chance to regroup from the turmoil of the past two months. North have also covered the line in 29 of their last 43 games on a break of seven days or more and have won two of their last four against the Crows.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.