AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 7

AFL Round 7 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Melbourne over 188.5 $1.85 William Hill

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -21.5 $1.92 Crownbet

Bet 2 units St Kilda-North Melbourne over 195.5 $1.88 Sportsbet

Port Adelaide- Brisbane – potential bet TBA via email and SMS

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide

Game Previews

Gold Coast v Melbourne

I do expect an improved performance from the Suns back at home this week after some home truths were told in the sheds include a few pointed words directed at G Ablett. Saad returns for the Gold Coast but they still have lots of holes defensively and in the midfield and I can’t see them stopping the Dees from scoring. With Lynch and Hogan in red hot form, there is a good chance we could see a shootout. Indeed, four of the Suns’ last five matches have yielded over 200 points, while three of the Dees last five have yielded over 200. The last clash head to head also yielded over 200 and weather  forecast  is favourable with a warm, dry day ensuring a fast track for the twilight start.

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Melbourne over 188.5 $1.85 William Hill

St Kilda v North Melbourne

The Roos are flying high, unbeaten on top of the ladder and have the luxury of an nine day turnaround.  They have covered 23 of their last 32 with 7 days or more between games. Complacency is their only danger. St Kilda have performed admirably this season pinching wins from Collingwood and their bunny, Melbourne while pushing Hawthorn to three points – which doesn’t mean as much as it did at the time given the Hawks continued poor form. However, a closer look at the Saints formline reveals that when they have played quality sides  in form such as the Bulldogs and GWS, they have been outclassed by 57 and 47 points respectively and both matches were at their Etihad home. The market agrees and moved a 1-2 points towards North since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -21.5 $1.92 Crownbet

With the Roos off a nine day turnaround and Saints off an eight day turnaround, I’m also forecasting a shootout at Etihad. North yielded over 200 points in each of their first five matches before being suckered into an arm wrestle with the Bulldogs. The Saints have yielded over 200 points in four of their six games while four of the last five clashes head to head have yielded 198 or more.

Bet 2 units St Kilda-North Melbourne over 195.5 $1.88 Sportsbet

Port Adelaide v Brisbane

With Beams returning to strengthen an improving Lions offence, I will continue to look for opportunities to back the over in Lions matches. A young team with an aggressive attacking mindset couple with a thin backline is a recipe for shootouts! The Lions have yielded over 200 points in three games with 181 points being their lowest yield. They even managed to yield 191 on a wet track against the Swans last week. Will watch the Adelaide weather forecast closely, with a view to a potential overs bet if the rain eases.

Port Adelaide- Brisbane – potential bet TBA via email and SMS

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Carlton v Collingwood – The Blues are a good cover side in the daytime, covering 15 of their last 22 while the Pies are poor under the sun, covering just 4 of their last 14. However, the Pies have won 6 straight against the Blues and have the mental edge at the moment.

Geelong v West Coast – The Eagles have covered 20 of their last 28 and the markets has firmed a point or two towards them, however, they have lost five straight on the road and I want to see them  prove themselves away from Subiaco before betting them on the road.

Sydney v Adelaide – Swans have won five straight against the Dons and the only thing stopping them from covering the 70+ line will be potential heavy legs and a six day back up from a wet track clash against the Lions at the Gabba.

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide – We would all love to see a high scoring thriller like last year’s elimination finals clash and having gone over in 19 of their last 27 games, the Crows won’t stand in the way of a shootout. However, the Dogs have increased their defensive focus this season and lead the AFL in this category so I just can’t back the overs.

Fremantle v GWS – Giants continue to cover the line as favourites and have now covered 16 of 22 as favourite, but I can’t have them at Subiaco, when they are winless and they might be in for an emotional let down after the high of last week’s amazing demolition of the Hawks.


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.