AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 5

AFL Round 5 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Adelaide over 195.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 1 unit Fremantle-Carlton Under 180.5 $1.88 William Hill

Bet 2 units Melbourne-Richmond Under 181.5 $1.88 William Hill  BB

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Sydney, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle, Melbourne, Collingwood

Game Previews

Hawthorn v Adelaide

The awesome Crows forward line is in red hot form and just keeps racking up cricket scores with the four Crows matches this year yielding 216, 220, 230 and 204 points. The Crows have now gone over the total match score line in 18 of their last 25 games. Hawthorn’s scoring has dropped from previous seasons but they remain a potent force and have gone over the total match score line in 7 of their last 10 night games.  Head to head, the last three clashes have yielded 196, 199 and 196. The market agrees with our assessment with several bookies increasing the line by 2 to 4 points since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Adelaide over 195.5 $1.91 Bet365

Fremantle v Carlton

The bookies have responded to the decline of Freo’s once mighty defence by increasing their total match score lines in recent weeks. The line of 180.5 available on Wednesday and recommended to subscribers via SMS was quite high, particularly for two teams with impotent forward lines. Freo is averaging 74 points per game in attack this year while Carlton is averaging just 61 and it’s hard to see Freo firing on all cylinders with Sandilands and Mundy still sidelined. Further, the last two clashes between these teams have yielded 148 and 161 points with 10 of Freo’s last 15 twilight games going under the total match score line. The market agrees and in the last 36 hours has firmed a very significant 4-8 points towards the under with 176.5 currently the highest line available. The market move also reflects a developing rain band approaching Perth and should this wet weather eventuate, it will further increase the prospect of the match going under.

Bet 1 unit  Fremantle-Carlton under 180.5 $1.88 William Hill

Melbourne v Richmond

The Dees enter this match on a high while it’s desperation time for Richmond after another slow start to the season. The Dees classic 267 point shootout  with the Kangas is fresh in everyone’s minds but if we look beyond that game, we see that the Dees have kept the other games tighter with those three matches yielding 169, 147 and 158 points. Further, the last four clashes between these two outfits have yielded 134, 165, 178 and 179 points and the Tigers have gone under in 29 of their last 44 at the MCG.  It’s rare that we see a line over 180 for a night match at MCG for teams that are not known for their attacking prowess and accordingly, the under was recommended to our subscribers on Wednesday night. The market agrees with our assessment with most bookies winding the line down three to four points.

Bet 2 units Melbourne-Richmond under 181.5 $1.88 William Hill

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Sydney v West Coast – Eagles have been outstanding at covering the line of late, covering in 19 of their last 26 games BUT Swans are a superb day team, covering the line in 26 of their last 38 day matches. The Eagles have gone over the total match score line in 32 of their last 45 day games so if the forecast rain does not arrive, the overs would be a great bet if you can get in before the bookies raise the line.

Gold Coast v North Melbourne – The Suns are a classic bogey team for North with the Kangas losing three straight to the Gold Coast outfit.

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane – Bulldogs have gone under the total match score line in 9 of their last 13 night games but it’s hard to see this happening at Etihad against a developing Lions defence. The Lions are no slouch in attack however,  ranked sixth in AFL for scoring shots (albeit with a very poor conversion rate at present).

Port Adelaide v Geelong – Power have an excellent cover record at night covering 19 of their last 26 under lights while the Cats are poor when interstate, only covering 3 of their last 10 outside Victoria. However, the Power simply cannot be trusted at present.

St Kilda v GWS – Giants have covered the line in 15 of their last 21 as a favourite and have won their last two against the Saints. They are also maturing and are now less prone to following up a win with a surprise loss when starting favourites.

Collingwood v Essendon – The Pies woeful last start loss to Melbourne was no surprise to those who are aware of their poor recent day record. The Pies have now failed to cover the line in 3 of their last 12 day games. However, we haven’t seen enough of the new-look Essendon to understand what they can do. Danger match!


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.