AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 3

AFL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne-Melbourne Over 164.5  $1.90 TopSport

Bet 2 units Brisbane +54.5  $1.92 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Brisbane Over 190.5  $1.90 TAB Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong


Game Previews

North Melbourne v Melbourne

The Kangas have made a nice start to the season and look poised to make it 3-0 against the Dees. The Kangas have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 day games while Melbourne have only covered the line in 7 of their last 23 interstate games. However, the line is approaching five goal territory and the Kangaroos have not been winning their games by big enough margins to give me confidence they can cover a five goal line. At the same time, Melbourne have not been easy beats of late and have only lost by more than five goals once in their last five starts.

A total match score play is the best option here with the line set for Melbourne’s low scoring history in recent seasons and the chance of a light shower. However, the last five head to head clashes have all gone over 173 points with three of them going over 200 points.  The market agrees with the line moving four points towards the over since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne-Melbourne Over 164.5  $1.90 TopSport


Geelong v Brisbane

Am keen to back the Lions with the big start as the Cats have only covered the line in 7 of their last 25 matches when favoured by 30.5 points or more. It took a classy West Coast outfit to beat the Lions by 60 in Round 1 and Geelong are no West Coast…yet. I also liked the Lions effort against the Kangas last week and only poor goal kicking prevented the margin from being in the teens. The Lions have a helpful eight days between games and I expect them to give a good account of themselves. There has been support for the Lions in the last 24 hours with the line moving from 55.5 down to 54.5

Bet 2 units Brisbane +54.5 $1.92 Sportsbet

I also expect this match to be a high scoring affair with the Lions last four games yielding over 196 points and three of the last five head to head clashes going over 200 points. There is a risk of a light shower so we’ll just bet the one unit.

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Brisbane over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Essendon – Power have covered the line in 18 of their last 25 games at night BUT the Dons have also covered the line well in night games, covering in 21 of their last 31 night games. We’ll continue to stay clear of Essendon until we understand what they have to offer. Danger game!


St Kilda v Collingwood – Pies have gone over the total match score line in 8 of their last 10 day games and the last two clashes between these sides have yielded 206 and 194 points.


Richmond v Adelaide – The Crows are currently the leagues predominant ‘overs’ team going over the total match score line in 16 of their last 23 games and 9 of their last 11 day games. However, they are up against a dominant ‘unders’ team in the Tigers and the last two clashes have yielded just 140 and 148 points.


Gold Coast v Carlton – The Blues have proven to be a bogey sides for the Suns in recent years winning the last three clashes by 34, 39 and 43 points BUT are a terrible night team , failing to cover the line in 9 of their last 12 night games.


West Coast v Fremantle – Eagles have covered the line in 17 of their last 24 games but have Freo may still hold a mental edge having won 6 of the last 8 Western Derbies.


North Melbourne v Melbourne -The Kangas have made a nice start to the season and look poised to make it 3-0 against the Dees. The Kangas have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 day games while Melbourne have only covered the line in 7 of their last 23 interstate games. However, the line is approaching five goal territory and the Kangaroos have not been winning their games by big enough margins to give me confidence they can cover a five goal line. At the same time, Melbourne have not been easy beats of late and have only lost by more than five goals once in their last five starts.


Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn – Hawks are a great day team covering the line in 13 of their last 18 day matches BUT the Dogs have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 games as a 0.5-15 point underdog. Danger game!



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.