AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 2

AFL Round 2 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Adelaide-Port Adelaide over 200.5  $1.91 Bet365  BB

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -24.5  $1.91 William Hill

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, West Coast, Sydney


Game Previews

Adelaide v Port Adelaide

I like teams returning from an interstate trip with a seven day turnaround to prepare for a home game and lean towards the Crows winning and covering the line, particularly as they come out of a stronger form game that the Power. I also note Port were beaten by the Saints in disposals and marks.

Recent Showdowns have been free flowing and high scoring affairs and I don’t see this changing on Saturday. The Crows attacking game has picked up where they left off last year and their last five games dating back to last season have yielded 204, 196, 211, 199 and 195 points. Adelaide have also gone over the total match score line in 15 of their last 23 regular season games and have also gone over in 16 of their last 21 day games. Port look to have rediscovered their running game of 2014 in piling up 133 points against the Saints and have gone over in 4 of their last 5 day games. The last five Showdowns have also yielded 229, 206, 175, 200 and 210 points. The midday start and forecast 24 degrees will also be conducive to high scoring. Accordingly, the market has made one of the biggest moves towards the over in recent seasons, moving from 192.5 points on Tuesday afternoon to 200.5 and above.

Bet 2 units – Adelaide-Port Adelaide over 200.5  $1.91 Bet365


Brisbane v North Melbourne

The Kangas travel interstate off a strong form game against the Crows while the Lions make the long trip home from Perth and have to contend with a six day turnaround. The Kangas have had the wood on the Lions in recent years winning three of the last four clashes by margins of 72, 82 and 87 points and won well at the Gabba last year. The only exception was a 4 point Gabba loss in 2014 when the Lions “did it for Browny” a few days after the champion’s retirement. The Kangas have covered the line in 11 of their last 15 day games and have also covered the line in 21 of their last 30 games with seven or more days between games.

Coach Leppa has indicated the Lions will take the game on in 2016 with an attacking mindset. This approach led to the Lions putting an admirable 102 points on the Eagles on Sunday and will bear fruit in the long term. However, the approach does leave them highly vulnerable to counter attacks with the Eagles scoring approximately 10 goals in or near the goal square unopposed or with little pressure. This will take time to fix. With Beams and Robinson out for the Lions, I expect the Kangas to win comfortably and cover. The market agrees with the line moving from 22.5 on Tuesday afternoon out to 24.5.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne -24.5  $1.91 William Hill


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Collingwood v Richmond – Pies have gone under the total match score line in 33 of their last 46 night games but 7 of 9 matches in week 1 went over thanks to the new interchange rules and new coaching tactics. The impact of the changes has been greater than expected and under bets need to be approached with great caution in the meantime.


Essendon v Melbourne – Four of the last five clashes between these sides have gone under 165 total match points BUT Essendon games can’t be touched until we understand what they have to offer. Danger game!


Fremantle v Gold Coast – Dockers have only covered 5 of their last 20 games with a six day turnaround BUT have never lost to the Suns.


St Kilda v Western Bulldogs – Bulldogs won the disposals 498-340 and I50’s 57-30 in Round 1. Those are unbeatable numbers and anything close to a repeat will see them rain on Riewoldt’s 300th parade.


GWS v Geelong – Giants have gone under the total match score line 11 times in their last 15 day games.


Hawthorn v West Coast – Hawks have covered the line in 12 of their last 17 day games BUT West Coast has covered the line in 17 of their last 23 games. Line has moved 5-7 points towards West Coast since Tuesday afternoon.


Carlton v Sydney – Blues have gone over the total match score line in 23 of their last 34 games as a home state dog and the total match line has moved from 178.5 on Tuesday afternoon to 180.5.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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Published on in AFL.