AFL Free Previews | 2018 Grand Final | Reading The Play
Expert AFL Tips | 2018 Grand Final | Reading The Play
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AFL Grand Final Recommended Bet List
West Coast-Collingwood under 160.5
Individual Game Tips
West Coast V Collingwood
After talking down Collingwood all season, I have spend the better part of the last week wiping egg off my face! Following on from the fairytale wins by the Western Bulldogs and Richmond, the Pies are hitting form at the right time and are now one win away from taking the flag by winning just 4 of 12 games against top eight teams – talk about a rails run! This Grand Final is a genuine toss of the coin job. Both teams have lost varying numbers of players to season ending injuries and suspension but both have covered the losses exceptionally well. The Pies will be advantaged by the crucial extra days break but play in their least preferred day time slot where they have only covered the line in 19 of their last 46 day games. The Eagles have won both of their clashes against the Pies this season but have a very poor long term record at the MCG having won just 7 of their last 26 matches at the MCG. One of these wins was against Collingwood this season and most of the others were against bottom four opposition. However, most of these games occurred before the Eagles moved into Optus Stadium which has similar dimensions to the MCG meaning the Eagles won’t need to alter their set up. Interstate Grand Finalists also have a very poor record against Victorian opponents, having lost five straight grand finals and 6 of the last 7, putting into perspective how good the Brisbane Lions were to win three straight grand finals against Melbourne opponents at the turn of the century. Neither team is blessed with steely leaders in the mould of Voss or Hodge who can lead from the front and will their men to victory and I have little confidence in either team taking the game by the scruff of the neck. Can the Pies handle favourtism? West Coast have a dozen players with Grand Final experience who have had three years to stew over their 2015 loss to Hawthorn – slight advantage to the Eagles here. At the end of the day, there are just too many red flags for both sides to bet with confidence. Will enjoy the game. Pushed for a tip, I have a very slight lean to the Pies.
A cloudy day with a top temperature of 14 degrees is forecast. I think we are in for a contested game. It’s obviously a big strength of Collingwood and the Eagles belted Melbourne in this department last week and are ranked number one for contested ball in the finals. When they do win the ball, the Eagles will do what they do best, find the open man and rack up marks – I can’t see them attacking the corridor at will. Accordingly, I expect a similar type of game to the Qualifying Final which the Eagles took out 86-70. I also note the Pies have gone under in 23 of their last 35 at “home” while the Eagle have gone under in 23 of their last 34 away. Accordingly, I want to be on the under. A handful of nervous set shots for goal spraying wide wouldn’t surprise and would further assist the chance of this match going under.
Bet 0.5 units West Coast-Collingwood under 160.5 $1.90 Topsport
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