AFL 2017 | Free Grand Final Preview
AFL 2017 | Free Grand Final Preview
AFL Statsman provides AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play AFL subscribers.
2017: Profit +10.9 units | 29 winners / 49 bets | strike rate 59.2%
2014-2017: Profit +72.63 units | 137 winners / 234 bets | strike rate 58.5%
Adelaide v Richmond
The market cannot decide which way to go in this Grand Final with the match lines and total score lines barely moving since Monday and it’s not hard to see why. We have a classic match up of the best attacking team versus the best defending team. Adelaide has won three straight against Richmond including a 76 point thumping of the Tigers back in Round 5 at the Adelaide Oval. The Crows have also won four and drawn one of there last five matches at the MCG, albeit with none of them against top eight teams. Richmond of course, were dominant at the MCG this year, winning 11 of 13 games at headquarters. Neither team was truly dominant in the regular season – in fact Adelaide’s tally of 62 points for the minor premiership was the lowest such tally since St Kilda won the 1997 minor premiership with just 60 points. I think it safe to say that neither team is any where near the class of the 2001-2003 Lions, 2000 Bombers, 2013-2015 Hawks and 2007,2009,2011 Cats as the best teams of the Millenium – in that order.
I have a slight lean to the Crows on the basis of their classier and deeper roster and their recent mental edge over the Tigers.
On the subject of total match scores, we have another even match up. On the one hand we have a high scoring day team in the Crows who have gone over the total match score line in 23 of their last 32 day games while the stingy Tigers have gone under the total match score line in 17 of 24 games this season. Those are two key long term stats favouring different outcomes and I’m reluctant to bet a substantial sum against either of these key stats.
Despite the Crows attacking prowess, I think Richmond have showed us in the past two weeks that they can exert sufficient pressure to slow down some of the Crows quick movement of the ball by foot to their forwards. Also, as footy has become more congested in the last decade, we have seen incredible pressure around the stoppages on Grand Final day as combatants lay it all on the line, which has seen 7 of the last 9 Grand Finals (including a replay) go under the 173.5 total match score line available this match. For that reason, I have a slight lean to the under.
Best Play: Adelaide-Richmond under 173.5
We have enjoyed a nice solid year accumulating double figure profit for the third time in four seasons, with longer term subscribers now seeing over 72 units in profit.
Thanks for your support in Season 2017 and I look forward to another season of profit in 2018!
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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017
AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips
Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended AFL sports betting tips.
Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.
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